MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday June 1st

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves for the final game of their three-game series on Wednesday. Atlanta is odds on favourites for this one despite losing on both Monday and Tuesday. The reigning World Series champions have won just four of their last 10, leaving them 10.5 games back in the National League East.

MLB Best Bet: June 1st

•  Arizona vs Atlanta: Atlanta Braves moneyline

Odds as of 12:10 pm June 1st, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Best Bet

June 1, 20:40 UK time

Arizona ended a four-game losing streak with their two wins over the Braves. They remarkably have the better record of the two. It’s worth noting, however, that the team from the desert are considerably overachieving their Pythagorean win-loss (they have three more wins than their runs allowed and scored would predict).

Kyle Wright, in the midst of a breakout campaign, takes the bump for the Braves. Veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for the Diamondbacks. This is a bad matchup for the former World Series MVP – Atlanta owns a 110 wRC+ as a team against lefties, and ranks second in walk rate in such contests.

Bumgarner’s walk rate is 8%, highest of his career. He’s striking out just 15.6% of hitters. While Atlanta is strikeout prone against left handers, Bumgarner doesn’t have the stuff any more to take advantage.

The Braves have a righty-heavy line-up. From Marcell Ozuna to Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr, this is a team loaded with bats which crush lefties. Matt Olson also doesn’t have meaningful splits, and has an OPS of almost .800 against southpaws so far in 2022.

A 3.35 ERA is slightly deceiving for Bumgarner. He’s got a career-worst hard hit rate and an expected slugging of over .500 against both his cutter and fastball. An xERA of 4.30 shows he’s ridden some luck to put up such strong numbers thus far.

Matching up with Bumgarner, Wright is a different pitcher to previous years. He’s added almost two miles per hour to his fastball, and is throwing his filthy curveball a lot more. While he’s also benefiting from an ERA almost a run below his xERA, the former first-round pick is striking out over 28% of hitters. Arizona has the third-highest strikeout rate against right handers.

The Diamondbacks offence has been even less effective than their run total suggests. They are 26th in team xwOBA on the season.

This starting pitching matchup is heavily in the Braves’ favour. Atlanta has the offence to get to Bumgarner, while Arizona should struggle to make hard contact against Wright. The bullpen is the biggest concern when it comes to backing the road team on the moneyline – Will Smith, Kenley Jansen and Jackson Stephens conceded runs on Tuesday, and Dylan Lee was responsible for an earned run on Monday.

Arizona’s relief corps is far from faultless, however, ranking dead last in bullpen wins above average so far this season.

There’s value on the Braves bouncing back from their Tuesday night extra innings loss. Wright has given up three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts in 2022, and we like his chances to keep this Diamondbacks line-up quiet again. The offence can do the rest for the Braves – this should be a comfortable win. It’s worth considering the Braves -1.5, too.

•       Selection: Braves moneyline
•       Best Odds: 1.63 (William Hill)
•       Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 12:10 am June 1st, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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