MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday June 22nd

With one-win apiece through two games of their series, the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants matchup for a third time on Wednesday night. Game one was a low-scoring affair with Max Fried and Logan Webb dominating while Tuesday’s game 2 was a run fest with the teams sharing 26 hits and 22 runs.

MLB Best Bet: June 22nd

•   Atlanta vs San Francisco: San Francisco to Win (OT Incl)

Atlanta vs San Francisco BEST BET

Thu, 22 Jun. 00:20 (UK Time)

Atlanta was the hottest team in the sport heading into this series. Wednesday’s game always looked like the Giants’ best chance at a victory with Carlos Rodon taking on Charlie Morton, who has had a difficult time of it in 2022 with an ERA over five and an expected ERA in the mid-fours.

Both offences got going in a big way on Tuesday. The Braves clobbered four home runs, while the Giants were at their disciplined best, forcing deep counts and racking up hits. Morton is coming off seven scoreless frames against the Cubs, but this Giants offence is going to be a more difficult test for the veteran. He allowed 16 runs over his previous four starts – the Giants have a team 109 wRC+ against right-handers in 2022.

Walks have been a problem for Morton at times, too. He’s allowing more bases on balls than in any season since 2018. San Francisco is tied with the Dodgers for the highest walk rate against right-handers so far this season.

The contest of Rodon against this Braves line up is similarly interesting. Rodon wasn’t at his best in late May and early June. He’s back in early season form of late, however, giving up just four hits with 16 strikeouts across 14 innings over his last two starts. This Braves offence is the third-most productive against lefties, but Rodon is among the best southpaws in the sport.

Atlanta is strikeout prone. Only five teams strike out more frequently when facing lefties. Rodon is in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate. The Braves make a lot of loud contact, and when hitters can make contact, Rodon does give up a fair few barrels. Still, he has bordered on unhittable at times this season, and it will take a lot of discipline from Atlanta’s offence to lay off his outside-the-zone stuff, particularly the high fastball.

Both bullpens took a battering on Tuesday. Brian Snitker and Gabe Kapler could be limited in which arms they can use, which is more likely to be an issue for the Braves given how the Giants can work pitch counts early on. San Francisco’s offence is very left-handed heavy at the moment, which works in their favour against Morton.

It’s a surprise to see the Giants are 23/20 to win this one. Rodon faces a challenge in this Atlanta offence, but it’s at least as difficult for Morton, especially after seeing San Francisco score 12 runs yesterday. We like the value on the road team to take a 2-1 series lead.

• Selection: San Francisco Giants to Win (OT Incl)
• Best Odds: 2.08 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 11:30 pm June 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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