MLB Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, June 8th

Riding a five-game winning streak following the firing of Joe Girardi, the Philadelphia Phillies matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers on June 8th for the second of their three-game set in Wisconsin. The Brewers are under pressure at the top of the National League Central, having won just once in their last seven games.

MLB Best Bet: June 8th

• Milwaukee vs Philadelphia: Philadelphia to Win (OT Incl)

Odds as of 2:30 pm June 8th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Milwaukee vs Philadelphia Best Bet

It’s Adrian Houser on the mound for the hosts, taking on Aaron Nola of the Phils. Their results so far in 2022 make this look like a pretty even matchup, with Nola owning a 3.92 ERA to Houser’s 3.51. Dig a little deeper, however, and there is more to this contest.

Houser ranks in just the 28th percentile in expected ERA, with a 4.55 mark. He’s comfortably below average by his strikeout and walk numbers, and a hard-hit rate of over 40% is his worst return since 2015. While he held the Padres to a lone run in his last start, he was lit up by the St Louis Cardinals in the start prior and has been hit hard by the Cincinnati Reds on two occasions. This Phillies lineup is getting hot – they have scored 34 runs over the last five games, and rank in the top 10 in team xwOBA on the season.

Nola’s story is almost the reverse. His expected ERA is over a run better than his actual number. He’s elite in both strikeout and walk numbers. A .280 xwOBA sits in the 84th percentile, and a slight increase in his sinker usage has paid meaningful dividends. The former All-Star gave up five earned runs to the Giants last time out, but that isn’t necessarily predictive of what will happen against a Brewers offence with just a 94 wRC+ against right-handers since May 21st.

Milwaukee doesn’t have the happiest of memories against Nola. He pitched seven scoreless when they matched up earlier this season, and their offence has got itself in a real rut of late with just 14 runs scored over the last six. Injuries to Willy Adames and Omar Narvaez have left the Brewers with some pretty uninspiring lineups. The outfield has been a particular weak point with Christian Yelich still struggling – only six teams have got less production from the outfield spots.

The Brewers have the edge on bullpen reputation and season-long production. Yet, the Phils got to Josh Hader on Monday and have enjoyed some solid outings from the relief corps during this winning streak.

Milwaukee is too good for this losing run to continue much longer, and the Phillies will come back down to earth soon. We still like the Phillies on the moneyline for the second game of this series, however. They are rolling at the moment, and despite the ERA numbers, this is a pitching matchup which really favours Philadelphia. They’re good value at 4/5 at Coral.

• Selection: Phillies Moneyline
• Best Odds:1.80 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 02:30 pm June 8th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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