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baseball | Friday, July 1, 2022 8:46 AM (Revised at: Friday, July 1, 2022 2:15 PM)

MLB Run Total Best Bet: Friday July 1st

MLB Run Total Best Bet: Friday July 1st
Contributor: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

The Pittsburgh Pirates will play host to the Milwaukee Brewers for a second straight night and the total has our MLB expert excited to get this tip on the board. Ej has every intention of finishing the week and starting a new month with a bang. The Over 7.5 run total will make it baseball’s best bet of the day on Friday night from the Steel City in PA. 

MLB Best Bet July 1st

  • Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee Over 7.5 Run Total 

Odds as of 11:00 am July 1st, 2022. Odds may now differ.


Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee Best Bet

July 2, 01:05 UK time

This total opened at 8 and I know this because I saw it with my own eyes and I wouldn’t just mention it if I hadn’t noticed it. The line setters have posted an even money line (2.00) on the 7.5 total to go over although they brought the line down from 8 to get there which is odd.

As you know, I am in the States and our time difference makes the lines I see and the ones you may see variate. I do apologize if you see my early line posted and it is not matching up with what you might see in the morning. I can only go by what I see and I hope when the piece goes up you are getting the lines I am offering on the tips. 

Well, let’s talk some facts because the last 9 games that the Brewers have played have all seen at least 8 runs scored. Guess what? If it happens for a 10th straight time we can enjoy another walk to the window with a ticket that needs cashing in. The fact that the line setters tested the early water with a straight 8 on this total and the betting public knocked it to 7.5 in just a few hours? That all depends on your angles and how you see line moves to point to one thing or another happening. 

I see it as a chance to let 8 runs feed us a payout because I don’t trust these two starters and we know these bats have tendencies to support the cause. The Buccs have played back-to-back 8 – 7 games including the first game of this series last night. Pittsburgh was a slight underdog at only 2.17 last night and today they are heavy underdogs as the line setters expect a resounding Brewers win on Friday to level the series.

I am seeing Pinnacle and William Hill featuring the Pirates at 2.75 odds to win another game against Milwaukee and that is your bonus tip tonight! Yes, sir, you get another Ej Special to end your week and make the weekend even better.

The Pirates are going to win this game 6 – 5 and this total should be one in our hands because I don’t trust Corbin Burnes to not give up the long ball. You see me say it all the time and I saw his last start against Toronto as he got lit up twice again. Through Burnes’ 15 starts there have been 12 balls that have not been playable because they ended up in the outfield stands.

In all honesty? The RHE prop is interestingly set at 24.5 and this could be a 6 – 5 game with only 10 hits and that would be enough to keep that number under that total. Burnes and his counterpart Roansy Contreras don’t give up a lot of hits but the two will make a mistake or two like clockwork. If this total were up at 8.5 or 9 I might switch gears and look for a  different option, but this is too low and my gut tells me we will get to 11 runs in Pittsburgh to start the weekend early. 

These two broke out the bats last night and you know I like to test the water when we see both teams hitting the ball, not just one overpowering the other. Pittsburgh will be in this game, and I think they’ll win it I would make that your second option with a lovely priced dog at home.

Contreras is worth a nod or two throughout the season, and this spot could be one that the bats support him, and we all enjoy the rewards of that. Over 7.5 runs go in as the best bet of the day so have a good weekend, everyone!

  • Selection: Over 7.5 Runs
  • Best odds: 2.02 (Marathonbet)
  • Stakes 4/10
  • Bonus Tip: Pirates 2.77 Moneyline

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