Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same-Game Parlay: 5.00 Wager For Tuesday Night’s NLCS Game Two

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same-Game Parlay, Opta Stats, Player Props

After an enthralling Game One, it’s time to take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks same-game parlay for Tuesday’s Game Two. Citizen’s Bank Park was rocking on Monday night as the Phillies took the lead in the National League Championship Series behind a trio of home runs.

Tuesday sees Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola head to the mound. Arizona is looking to bounce back from their first loss of the postseason before the series heads to Chase Field on Thursday night.

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• Merrill Kelly over 1.5 earned runs
• Aaron Nola over 1.5 earned runs
• Brandon Marsh over 0.5 total bases

Bet Builder odds: 5.00

US, MLB, 18th October, 01:07 (UK)

Odds via Bet365 as at 09:00, 17th October 2023. Odds may now differ.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Stats and Facts:

• Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly posted his best full-season ERA in 2023. Kelly has a 2.75 career ERA in three starts against the Phillies.
• Philadelphia have won five of the eight matchups between these two teams in 2023.
• Only four teams have covered the run line more frequently than the Diamondbacks this season.
• The over has landed in just 73 of Arizona’s 168 games across the 2023 regular season and Playoffs.
• After hitting three more homers on Monday, the Phillies have a league-leading 16 homers in the postseason and an MLB-best ISO of .275.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same-Game Parlay: Aces To Notch Another Win

Merrill Kelly over 1.5 earned runs

Merrill Kelly has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last seven starts, but his bad outings have been very poor, including conceding seven earned runs to the Mets in the middle of September.

As good as Kelly has been this year, he’s clearly benefited from some batted-ball luck. His xERA only ranks in the 52nd percentile. There are a number of patient hitters in this Phillies offence – if they force Kelly to get into the zone, he doesn’t have the stuff to repeatedly miss bats.

Philadelphia’s offence is scorching hot – don’t be surprised if they deliver some more first-inning heroics to hit this over early on.

Aaron Nola over 1.5 earned runs

Aaron Nola was dominant against the Marlins in the Wild Card round. He recorded a career Playoff-high of nine strikeouts against the Braves in the Division Series. The Diamondbacks showed again on Monday that they can generate offence against good pitching, though, and Nola has conceded over 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five Playoff outings.

Go back to the regular season, and Nola has allowed two or more runs in four of his previous six starts overall. These Diamondbacks have taken at least two earned runs off every starter they’ve faced in the Playoffs, including Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Bobby Miller.

Brandon Marsh over 0.5 total bases

Brandon Marsh came through for us in Game One, so we’re rolling with the Phillies outfielder again in Game Two. Marsh has now had hits in three straight games, and registered 10 total bases in that span.

Matching up with another right-hander works in Marsh’s favour, too. He’s much better against righties than lefties, and posted an OPS over .800 against right-handers in the regular season. Kelly being a soft-thrower with a 92mph average fastball should also benefit Marsh – he’s been better against finesse arms throughout his career, and had a whopping .923 OPS against finesse pitchers in the regular season.

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