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The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates have each picked up a win in the Steel City, as the two teams play the rubber game of this 3-game set on Thursday night. A pair of high-scoring affairs has occurred over the last two days, and we expect more of the same to take place with one little surprise in the mix. With a 4.50 MLB Bet Builder to recommend for Thursday night, let’s hit the diamond and turn two!
Bet Builder Odds: 4.00
Odds via Bet365 as of 8:00 am on August 10, 2023. Odds may now differ
Let’s start with the total for this game because all these two teams have done over the last three days is score runs! The Buccs snuck away with a 7 – 6 win to open this 4-game set on Monday night, and the Braves levelled the series with an 8 – 6 win on Tuesday. Atlanta came away with a 6 – 5 win last night, and starting pitching has been an issue this entire series.
Not one starting pitcher from the first three games has made it past the 5th inning, and I don’t think either player that is expected to start this game will be around that long either.
Bailey Falter and Bryce Elder are listed as the probable starting pitchers, and here is the issue with Falter.
Falter is not going to pitch past the 5th inning because we know his pitch count number will not surpass 70 tosses. Falter is only making his second start since May, and yes, he looked all right against Milwaukee in his last start, but he still only pitched 4 innings making his first start after missing nearly 3 months of action.
I expect Falter to allow no fewer than four earned runs before he exits this contest after 4 innings of action, and the Pirates’ bullpen will have to overachieve from there on out.
That is a big ask but Bryce Elder is the other concern to look at regarding this total. I have not met an Elder total that I haven’t liked in months, and you can see why from all of his recent results. The Braves support him well, and he usually finds a way to get hit hard.
The Cubs just smacked two bombs against him in his last start, and Elder will allow another pair of bombs today, you heard it here!
I was thinking about the Braves’ Runline but whenever I expect a team to earn an easy win by multiple runs, the other team seems to provide a surprise. Coming from someone who loves to think about underdogs and finding value as I do, I expect the Pirates to give the Braves a fight and a high-scoring game to close out this set that has been full of scoring thus far.
With the +1.5 Buccs Runline, add the Total Over 9.5 Runs, and your odds for our Thursday Night MLB Bet Builder will consist of 4.50! Good Enough!
Play the 1st 5-Inning over 5.5 straight if you are looking for a bonus bet to make on this game.
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