Basketball | Thursday, October 27, 2022 2:00 AM

Partizan Belgrade vs Zalgiris Kaunas Best Bet: Belgrade Doesn’t Frighten the Greens

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Basketball Expert

Partizan Belgrade vs Zalgiris Kaunas Best Bet: Thursday, October 27th

The packed Belgrade Stark Arena will be the battleground for Partizan Belgrade and Zalgiris Kaunas in Round 5 of this year’s Euroleague. The hosts have finally managed to clinch victory in the last round against Virtus Bologna, whilst Zalgiris have been constantly overperforming this season and are travelling to Belgrade in excellent form.

In this article:

Partizan Belgrade vs Zalgiris Kaunas Preview

October 27th, 19:30 UK Time

Both teams are known to be home-favoured, and this is where they are expected to deliver the most. The moneyline market tells us a story of Partizan being a 7.5-point favourite in this game (Opened -9.5). We believe the line will shift closer to 5.5 before the match, and this early, the line of 7.5 (for the away team to cover) still has value.

Partizan have started the season 1 – 3, winning their last home game convincingly against Virtus Bologna. They are having injury issues, with A. Avramovic (PG/SG) and A. Smailagic ( C) out for the upcoming game. We are expecting Partizan to be fatigued after so many close games since the start of the season, and whilst we do expect them to win, Zalgiris are known for covering the spread on the road.

Zalgiris have started the season 2:2, winning their last two games, whilst covering handicaps in Round 1 against Real (3 points margin) and against Olympiacos (10 points margin), we expect them to be able to cover the handicap tonight as well with their fast-paced player rotations and general offence mixed with the home team’s physical and emotional fatigue.

Zalgiris Kaunas have no Injury or rotation problems whatsoever heading into this game.
Zalgiris have managed to keep the games close by playing good defence. They are allowing 78.5 points per game so far, having already played against the top 3 teams in this year’s competition. This is where we give them the edge over the home team.

These teams have played 4 times in the past, and Partizan have won each time around Zalgiris have lost to Partizan on the road by an average of 8 points, whilst winning at home by 10.