basketball | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 11:58 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, July 18, 2023 11:59 AM)

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Bet Builder: 3.60 Wager For Tuesday Night

Sam Cox

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Bet Builder: Tuesday, July 18th

Returning after the All-Star break, the Phoenix Mercury host the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night. Connecticut won their last three games before the midseason hiatus, while the struggling Mercury are sitting 4-15 with the worst net rating in the Association.

Brionna Jones is out for the remainder of the season with a torn Achilles tendon, which naturally weakens the Sun. Jones was their second-highest scorer and they were a +8.8 in her minutes.

Phoenix fired head coach Vanessa Nygaard at the end of the last month, ending a tumultuous tenure. Removing Nygaard has done little to solve the team’s issues, even if two of their four wins this season have come since that change. Skylar Diggins-Smith remains unavailable, and it is unclear if she will return this season.

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Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Preview
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Bet Builder

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Preview

Wed, Jul 19. 03:00 (UK time)

Without Jones, the Sun have a much lower ceiling. Their chances of going all the way took a meaningful hit, but as their pre-All-Star performances indicated, they are still more than capable of seeing off the league’s weaker teams. It is not a surprise that the Sun are heavily favoured for this game – they have covered this number in their last four games against sub-.500 teams.

Connecticut has actually covered the spread more frequently than any other team in 2023. Unsurprisingly, the lowly Mercury have the worst ATS record in the league, covering just six times in 19 outings.

The Sun have also hit the over more than any other team. They are only middle-of-the-pack in pace, and the Mercury are dead-last, but Connecticut have a potent offence. Their average points allowed and conceded come to 163.9, which is a shade above where the total is set for this game.

Five of the Sun’s last six games have gone over this line. Phoenix has tended to go under 162.5, but their poor defence has often seen opponents get well into the nineties. In their last five games against teams over .500, they have conceded 89 or more points on four occasions.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Best Bet

The Sun have exceeded this team total in four of their last seven. They average 88.4 points per game across their last seven – considering they are facing the worst defence in the league, hitting this over seems very attainable, and it makes sense to pair this with over 162.5 total points.

Even with the Mercury showing some signs of improvement and the Sun missing Jones, there’s a real chasm between these teams this season. Look for a comfortable road win here.