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Basketball | Friday, September 1, 2023 5:16 AM

Serbia vs Italy Bet Builder Tips: Will Serbia Finally Beat Italy?

Serbia vs Italy Bet Builder Tips: Will Serbia Finally Beat Italy?
IMAGO / VCG Bogdan Bogdanovic 7 of Serbia drives to the basket during the FIBA Basketball World Cup Group B game between Puerto Rico and Serbia

Serbia vs Italy Bet Builder Tips, OPTA Stats, Player Props

In the last three years, this will be the third time that Serbia will play against Italy in the big tournaments. Italy won both games, and both were painful: one sent Serbia out of the Olympic games, and the other one out of Eurobasket Will it be the third charm for Serbia in the FIBA World Cup, or agony will continue?

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Odds available at bet365 as of September 1st. Odds may now differ.

Serbia vs Italy Stats and Facts

  • Serbia went perfect in the group stage, while Italy got a loss against Dominican Republic
  • Serbia averages 179 total points in their games, while Italy 163.3 (had 148 against Angola)
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic finally caught rhythm against South Sudan, shooting 6/9 for three.

Serbia vs Italy BET BUILDER TIPS: Is it time for revenge?

Bogdan Bogdanovic 17.5+ points

Bogdan started this World Cup a little bit slowly, mostly due to his shots just not falling. But he caught fire against South Sudan, scoring 23 points on 6/9 for three. Now, opponents are tougher, so he will have to step up.

In the last World Cup, Bogdan went over this line in 6 out of 8 games. He had 26 against Spain 21 against Argentina, and 31 against Italy in the group stage. Of course, that Italy squad is not even close to today’s one, but in the same tournament, Bogdan had the least points against weaker competition.

He will be tough to guard for Italy, cause he can both play off-ball and on-ball, and Italy showcased some issues at the defensive end (they allowed Phillippines to score 83 with Clarkson shooting just 1/7 for three).

Serbia and Italy played in preparation games, and Bogdan had 14 points while shooting 1/6 for three. Now, he will have Stefan Jovic next to him, so he should have a solid number of easy threes assisted by Stefan.

Total over 164.5

Serbia went over this line in all three of their group stage games, and in all but one preparation game (against poor Greece offence in a slow game). Their offence works well, and while it seems that defence worked, there are some issues.

Nikola Milutinov shouldn’t be mobile enough to face Italians all five out, so schemes that worked against weaker opponents in the group stage shouldn’t work against Italy. On the other side, there is Italy, which had really bad shooting variance in their group stage. Their main star, Simone Fontecchio shot just 5/25 for three in the tournament.

Still, Italy managed to average 84 points per game, even though they are shooting just 28.7% for three.

Italy and Serbia played in preparation games, and Italy won by 89-88. The estimated number of possessions for Serbia in that game was 80, which means the game was played super fast.

There were also a lot of points in the last two competitive games between them: Italy won in the Eurobasket 94-86, while in Olympic qualifications Italy won 102-95. Italy will probably again look to play fast so they can run Milutinov off the court and get easier looks at the rim.


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