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The reigning champs have won 2 of their last international games, getting closer to that top-8 spot after a slow start. Virtus have shown signs of slowing down after big away victories against favoured Real Madrid and Olimpia Milano.
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November 25th, 19:30 UK Time
Virtus are sitting at the top 8 lines with a 4- 5 record, clinching some of the toughest opponents while slipping against, on paper, weaker ones. With coach Sergio Scariolo, they have been a defensively oriented team so far. Their biggest strength is defensive rebounding and own basket isolation, in which they are 3rd in the competition with an average of 26.2 DREB per game.
Their weakness is their poor offence, where they have been able to accumulatively average only 73.5 points per game so far in the competition, shooting 35% from the 3-point line and only 72% from the FT line. They will be missing T. Shengelia with an ankle injury and A, Abass with a knee injury.
Efes, in all their greatness, have been having slow starts as a recipe now. Already 3 years in a row they have been doing the same thing, opening the competition slowly and then heating up and not leaving anyone behind. They have won 2 games in a row against Barcelona and Milano (Away, with a margin of 30). If Efes are on top of their game, there are not many teams that can stop them and Virtus is certainly not one of them. They are shooting 55% from three in the last game-winning stretch, and I can see them delivering similar numbers tonight. They will not be missing any players apart from S. Larkin with a finger injury.
Coach Ataman has said that he is happy the team is finally starting to click. W. Clyburn, probably one of the biggest deals this summer, is finally starting to show why Efes took him and is averaging 21 points in the past 2 weeks. Virtus are the oldest team in the competition with 29,5 average player age, and a fast-paced team like Efes will be able to break their spirit and expose their physical limitations.
The moneyline suggests these teams are evenly-matched, which we could consider if Efes weren’t on a winning streak. History has taught us that once they heat up there is no stopping. We are strong believers in Efes’ win tonight at 1.70 odds, and if the match goes as planned, Efes are expected to have smooth sailing in Bologna in the end.
Odds as of 2:30 pm on November 25th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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