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Mixed martial arts Byron Nelson Best Bet: 41.00 Value Pick This Weekend
Byron Nelson Best Bet: Thursday, May 11th
The PGA Tour returns to TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson. We have analysed the betting markets to bring you our AT&T Byron Nelson best bet.
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Byron Nelson Preview
Thursday, 11th May, 11.00 (UK)
The AT&T Byron Nelson has been played at a number of different courses over the years but TPC Craig Ranch hosts for the third year in a row. A Tom Weiskopf design, it offers plenty of room off the tee and rewards those players who are longer than average.
Scoring has been low in each of the tournaments played at TPC Craig Ranch. Lee won with a score of 26 under par last year, bettering his winning score in 2021 by a stroke. Birdies are very much the order of the day and a hot putter is essential.
There is one significant course change to be aware of. The 12th hole will play as a 493 yard par four, having previously been a 547 yard par 5. As a result, the course will play to a par of 71, rather than 72.
K.H. Lee is the defending champion and is seeking to become only the tenth man since World War II to win an event three years in a row. Lee’s chances were increased on Monday by the withdrawal of home favourite, Jordan Spieth. Spieth was runner up last year but a wrist injury has ruled him out of this year’s event.
Spieth’s withdrawal leaves Scottie Scheffler as the clear favourite. The Texan is a general 7/2 in the betting.
The tournament could have several weather interruptions, with thunderstorms forecast for each of the first three days. There doesn’t appear to be any significant advantage to either side of the draw in rounds one and two.
AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bet
Charley Hoffman famously wore a t-shirt in 2020 rebranding the Texas Open as the Charley Hoffman Open, such as the amount of money he had won from that one particular event. I can only imagine that K.H. Lee has a similar t-shirt in his collection given the amount of money he has collected from this event.
Champion in each of the last two years, the South Korean warmed up nicely for this event with an 8th place finish last week at Quail Hollow. There is every chance he goes close again to the AT&T Byron Nelson treble this week. However, odds of 22/1 make little appeal given he was priced up at 150/1 last week, albeit in a stronger field.
The field may have had more depth at the Wells Fargo Championship but world number two, Scottie Scheffler, fills the void left by last week’s star man, Rory McIlroy. Scheffler has been incredibly consistent this year, finishing inside the top twelve in all nine of his starts and you’d bank on him doing so again this week in his home state.
If anyone is to beat Scheffler, or indeed K.H. Lee, it could well be Seamus Power. The Irishman boasts strong course credentials, having recorded a top 20 finish last year and a top 10 finish in 2021.
Power recorded a top 20 finish last week at the Wells Fargo and is generally a player to follow when he starts to show signs of form. A two time winner on the PGA Tour, he’s an attractive price with bet365 in their ‘Each Way Extra’ market. Odds of 41.0 with eight eight each way places are a joint industry best and he’s fancied to go well this week.
If you are looking for an outsider you could do a lot worse than Kevin Chappell at 226.0 with eight each way places at bet365. Chappell has been playing really nicely of late, recording four top 30 finishes in his last five solo starts. His stats have been encouraging for each of those finishes, a sign that this improved play may not be a flash in the pan.
Chappell’s only appearance at TPC Craig Ranch resulted in a missed cut. However, delving deeper into that, he shot 74-69 and it came whilst he was dealing with injury problems. A past winner in Texas, having won the 2017 Texas Open, he also has several other strong finishes in the state.
Finally, the ‘Top Chinese’ market makes some appeal this week at bet365. There hasn’t been much between Zecheng Dou and Carl Yuan this year in terms of performances but Dou marginally edges the head to head results in 2023. Triumphant in this market last time out in Mexico, Dou may just have the edge this week given the event is being played in Texas. Dou is now a Texas resident and with both players making their event debut this week, there is plenty to like about the 2.10 on offer for him to win this two horse race.
- Selection: Seamus Power EW
- Best Odds: 41.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds via bet365 as at 11.00 May 9th 2023. Odds may now differ.
