golf | Thursday, April 27, 2023 8:38 AM

Mexico Open Best Bet: 41.00 Value Pick This Weekend

Duncan Campbell

Mexico Open Best Bet: Thursday, April 27th

The PGA Tour takes a trip to Mexico this week and we have analysed the betting markets to bring you our Mexico Open best bet.

In this article:

Mexico Open Preview
Mexico Open Best Bet

Mexico Open Preview

Thursday, 27th April, 15.00 (UK)

The Signature course at Vidanta Vallarta is once again the host course for this year’s Mexico Open, having hosted last year’s inaugural event on the PGA Tour. A Greg Norman design, the course has Paspaulum grass throughout and plays to a par of 71.

Although there are a number of bunkers (106 to be precise) to offer some protection, the Signature course offered up plenty of birdies last year and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a winning score of -17 or better again this year.

Length off the tee is very much the order of the day. Wide landing areas saw players hitting plenty of drivers off the tee last year and it was no surprise that nine of the top fifteen on the leaderboard last year ranked inside the top ten for SG: Off The Tee.

Jon Rahm defends his title, the sole representative from the world’s top 15 to pitch up at Vidanta Vallarta. The world number one has triumphed on four occasions already this year, including this year’s Masters, and he’s the strong favourite at 11/4.

Last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans saw players compete in two man teams. Normal service resumes this week, with players competing as individuals in a stroke play format. As such, 65 players and ties will make the cut this week.

The weather is forecast to be pleasant on each of the four days, with the wind expected to peak around 14mph.

Mexico Open Best Bet

It’s hard to discuss the betting this week without first mentioning the man who dominates the top of the market. Jon Rahm returns to Mexico as red hot favourite and for the second week in a row we are asked to take a 11/4 favourite at the front of the betting.

Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay put up a stellar defence of their title last week when finishing 4th and it’s easy to envisage defending champion Rahm following suit.

The Spaniard admirably kept his word to play at the RBC Heritage immediately after his Masters win, managing to record a 15th place finish when clearly drained from the week before. It’s certainly a worry for the field that he arrives in Mexico rested, having taken last week off. Seven of Rahm’s last eight victories have come when he’s fresh off a break.

If you do want to get Rahm onside you may wish to look at him in the wire to wire winner market. He won this event when leading after each round last year and is 16/1 with bet365 to do so again.

Taylor Moore and Matthew NeSmith got this column off to a profitable start last week, returning a 4th place finish to claim a full each way return. Given the strength of last week’s favourites, the prudent move was to play Moore and NeSmith in the ‘Without Favourites’ market and that’s a tactic that is worth adopting again this week given the quality Rahm possesses.

Bet365 are once again offering a ‘Betting Without’ market, which gives the option to take out Rahm and Tony Finau. Those two are comfortably the best players in the field and at least one is expected to challenge.

Lee Hodges (41.0) is the man I like the best in this market and he’s the player I’m most interested in a market that offers five each way places. Hodges is yet to win on the PGA Tour and I have concerns he has what it takes to beat a Rahm or Finau. However, this bet takes those two out of the equation.

Hodges ranks 15th in this field in the season SG: Off The Tee metrics. Length off the tee is important this week and whilst he’s not the longest on Tour, he’s certainly not the shortest either.

A 51st place finish in this event last year doesn’t appear to be much at face value but it was sandwiched in between four missed cuts. He comes into this week in far better form, having made his last three individual cuts, including a 6th place finish at the Greg Norman designed TPC San Antonio.

Finally, he’s gained strokes with his irons in each of his last four starts and looks primed to mount a challenge this week. Take the man from Alabama each way in this market.