Football 
Horse Racing 
Mixed martial arts PGA Championship Best Bet: 21.00 Value Pick This Weekend
PGA Championship Best Bet: Thursday, May 11th
The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club is the venue for the year’s second major, the PGA Championship. We have analysed the betting markets to bring you our PGA Championship best bet.
In this article:
PGA Championship Preview
PGA Championship, Thursday, 18th May, 12.00 (UK)
The PGA Championship is the year’s second major championship. Once the final major of the year, the tournament moved to a May slot in the calendar in 2019.
Oak Hill Country Club hosts the PGA Championship for the fourth time, having previously hosted in 1980, 2003 and 2013. Originally a Donald Ross design, the course has undergone significant changes since it last hosted the event in 2013. Andrew Green was the man brought in to oversee the work and Green cleared several hundred trees, recontoured bunkers and reshaped greens. Perhaps the biggest change though is the creation of three new holes.
Despite adding 250 yards to the course, it will play as a par 70 this week, measuring 7,396 yards. Thick rough will capture errant tee shots, with players hoping to keep their ball on the short grass.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler share favouritism at 9.00. Between them, the world number one and two have taken home almost a third of the trophies this calendar year, including the year’s first major, the Masters.
Rain showers are possible on Saturday but the weather forecast is positive overall. There shouldn’t be any weather delays.
PGA Championship Best Bet
Let me get this out of the way early on, I can only make a flimsy case against Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. The two best players in the world have been a cut above the rest this year and at least one of them is expected to be in the mix this week.
Scheffler didn’t have his best golf over the weekend at the AT&T Byron Nelson but still finished fifth and ranked second only to winner Jason Day for SG: Tee to Green. Of course, Oak Hill will test Scheffler’s game far more and he’ll struggle to contend if he’s not feeling confident with his swing, as was the case in Texas.
The case against Rahm is even weaker given the Spaniard has taken home the trophy four times in eleven starts this calendar year. A third-place finish last time out in Mexico was heavily reliant on his putter but it’s a reach to say his long game had deserted him. The pressure of following up his Masters win with another major title is arguably the biggest negative against the world number one.
With not much between Rahm and Scheffler, it’s no surprise to see them priced up as 9.00 joint-favourites. However, I think the value lies a little further down the betting.
Rory McIlroy would have been in my thinking were it not for some miserable performances at some favourable venues lately. The Northern Irishman calls Oak Hill his “second home” and his honorary membership here will certainly give him course knowledge that few others in the field will possess. All three men are included in a bet365 Booster Treble to finish in the top 10 at odds of 11.57, up from 10.00 but I’m looking elsewhere.
So, if not Rahm, Scheffler or McIlroy, then who?
LIV Golfers showed at the Masters that they remain competitive and many of their prices appeal this week. Dustin Johnson was a winner last week at LIV Tulsa and he certainly factors into my thinking. However, it is the man who is currently second in the LIV Golf standings who I am most keen on.
Brooks Koepka appeared back to his best at the Masters and a tidy 6th place finish last week in Tulsa indicates he remains in fine form. When the PGA Championship was last held in New York, in May 2019, Koepka was the man who tore apart the par 70 Bethpage Black, taking a seven-shot lead into the final round.
With thick rough once again in play, longer drivers will once again be at an advantage. Dustin Johnson was the man who followed Koepka home at Bethpage Black and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see power hitters dominate once again. Koepka possesses more than enough firepower to get the job done this week and he’s my best bet at 21.00 with bet365.
Ten of the last fourteen PGA Championships have gone to those inside the world’s top 25 in the world rankings but surprises can happen at the PGA Championship. Jason Dufner was number 21 in the world when winning at Oak Hill in 2013 but Shaun Micheel was world number 169 when he lifted the Wanamaker Trophy here in 2003.
If a surprise does occur this week, it could well come from Corey Conners. A winner in Texas earlier this year, he warmed up nicely for this week’s test with an eighth-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. Priced up at 101.00, you can back him with eight each way places at bet365. The Each Way Extra market on bet365 allows plenty of control over how many places we want to include in the selection.
Conners is an above-average driver and excellent ball striker who sometimes struggles on the greens. However, it’s encouraging that he’s gained strokes on the green in six of his last eight measured starts. With the Canadian border only a 90 minute drive from Oak Hill, Conners should enjoy plenty of support this week.
The Top Debutant market is one of the side markets that catches my eye this week. Sahith Theegala rightly heads up the market but should he stumble, there isn’t too much between the rest of the contenders. Form horse, Brandon Wu, makes the most appeal at 15.00. Wu recorded a 3rd place finish at the Mexico Open before backing that up with a top 25 at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week.
- Selection: Brooks Koepka EW
- Best Odds: 21.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds via bet365 as at 11.30 May 16th 2023. Odds may now differ.
