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Mixed martial arts The Open Championship Best Bet: 56.00 Pick For This Weekend’s Action
The Open Championship Best Bet: Thursday, July 20th
Royal Liverpool Golf Club is the host course for the The Open Championship. We have analysed the betting markets to bring you our The Open Championship best bet.
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The Open Championship Preview
Thursday, 20th July, 07:00 (UK)
Royal Liverpool Golf Club hosts the 151st Open Championship, having last hosted the Championship in 2014. This will be the 13th time that Hoylake, as Royal Liverpool is often known as, will host The Open.
Unlike 2014, when the course played as a par 72, the course will be set up as a par 71 this week. The tenth hole was previously played as a par 5 which served as a birdie opportunity. It will now play as a long par 4.
The course has been toughened up in other ways too. A new 17th hole has been added since the 2014 Championship which has received a mixed reaction. Jon Rahm refused to state it was unfair but did describe it as “more difficult.”
The final hole has also been made trickier with an adjustment to the internal out of bounds. This now pinches in much closer to the fairway and will likely cause players a greater degree of difficulty than previous Opens.
Royal Liverpool is a true links test though and much will depend on the weather conditions. The current forecast suggests a mix of rain showers and moderate breeze. The forecast beside the coast can change quickly though and just as we saw with the Scottish Open last week, it can often be wrong.
Tiger Woods triumphed at Hoylake in 2006, with Rory McIlroy winning in 2014. Tiger was able to hit long irons off the tee in 2006 with the course playing fast and firm. That wasn’t the case in 2014 when the course was softer. Conditions this week will be more akin to 2014 than 2006.
Avoiding the penal fairway bunkers and thick rough will be important this week and a mixture of accuracy and power will likely be needed. Players won’t be able to overpower Royal Liverpool, something Brooks Koepka confirmed in his pre-tournament press conference when stating length wouldn’t be an advantage.
The Open Championship Preview
Rory McIlroy edges Scottie Scheffler in the betting this week, the Northern Irishman having won last week in Scotland and triumphing last time The Open was played at Hoylake. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either player contend this week but single figure odds in the outright market make limited appeal in an event where the weather can play a significant part in determining the outcome.
Instead, the way to play McIlroy or Scheffler may well be to play them in one of the special markets offered by bet365. Given that McIlroy and Woods both led from the halfway point onwards for their wins at Royal Liverpool, the 21.0 available on each of the favourites to lead after round two and go on to win makes more appeal. Incidentally, you can back either of them at 36.0 to lead after round one and win.
History would certainly support the contention that we should be focusing our thoughts towards the front of the market. Seventeen of the last 22 winners of The Open Championship have been inside the world’s top 50. Royal Liverpool hasn’t thrown up too many shocks in the past and I don’t expect there to be a massive surprise this week.
Talor Gooch was one name that made significant appeal in the outright market. The American has been dominating on LIV Golf this year and comes into this week a much improved player to previous Open attempts. Gooch has a pair of top 35 finishes in each of the past two years but he’s expected to go even better this week. His odds have shortened considerably in the last couple of months but 71.0 with bet365 is a price that could look generous come Sunday evening.
The negative against Gooch is that he’s only made two starts in The Open. Nine of the last eleven winners of The Open Championship had made at least four starts in the event prior to winning. Gooch may well be one for the future and he’s overlooked this week.
Preference would instead be for Gooch’s fellow American, Tony Finau. One of the most popular players on Tour, Finau has yet to win a Major but must have a great chance this week given his excellent Open record. Big Tony has never finished worse than 28th in six starts in the event.
A multiple winner on the PGA Tour last year and a winner at the Mexico Open a couple of months ago, Finau’s form since that win in Mexico hasn’t been the best. A missed cut last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was a disappointment but he ranked inside the top 25 for SG: Tee to Green in his two starts before that and I think his game might be in better shape than the results show.
Finau is on record as saying he “loves links golf.” With that in mind, I’m prepared to look past his recent form and back him at a standout price of 56.0 with bet365. Take Finau with eight each way places.
- Selection: Tony Finau EW (1/5 1-8)
- Best Odds: 56.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 12.45 July 18th 2023. Odds may now differ.
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