golf | Wednesday, May 3, 2023 10:55 AM

Wells Fargo Championship Best Bet: 81.00 Value Pick This Weekend

Duncan Campbell

Wells Fargo Championship Best Bet: Thursday, May 4th

The PGA Tour returns to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. We have analysed the betting markets to bring you our Wells Fargo Championship best bet.

In this article:

Wells Fargo Championship Preview
Wells Fargo Championship Best Bet

Wells Fargo Championship Preview

Thursday, 4th May, 15.00 (UK)

The Wells Fargo Championship reverts back to Quail Hollow Club, following a change of venue last year to accommodate the Presidents Cup. A par 71 playing over 7,500 yards, it was the fifth hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021.

Originally a George Cobb design, the course underwent a redesign before the 2017 PGA Championship. Tom Fazio was the man tasked with creating several new holes, upgrading the bunkers and overseeing a switch to Bermuda Champion G-12 putting surfaces.

Unlike last week’s Mexico Open, where Tony Finau won with a score of -24, Quail Hollow will offer up fewer birdie opportunities. The winning score has traditionally been somewhere between ten and fifteen under par and a similar score is expected once again.

If you are betting in play, be aware that the final three holes play as some of the harder holes on the course. In 2019 these holes ranked as the three hardest holes on the course, whilst in 2021 the 17th and 18th holes again ranked as the two hardest holes.

Despite a change of venue last year, Rory McIlroy and Max Homa have had a firm grip on this event in recent years. Homa took the title in 2022 and 2019, with McIlroy winning in 2021 (note – there was no event played in 2020 due to Covid-19).

The bookmakers are very much of the opinion that the Homa/McIlroy trend continues and have chalked the Northern Irishman up at 8/1. McIlroy’s quest for a fourth title at Quail Hollow is aided by the fact Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have opted not to tee it up, despite it being one of the PGA Tour’s elevated events.

Last year’s Wells Fargo Championship was plagued by heavy rain but this year’s event has a much more promising weather outlook. The weather forecast suggests there might be rain showers on Saturday but conditions overall look favourable.

Wells Fargo Championship Best Bet

Sixteen of the world’s top twenty tee it up at Quail Hollow, a significant step-up in quality from the Zurich Classic and Mexico Open in previous weeks.

bet365 have some interesting prices in the specials markets this week and there are two in particular that catch my eye. The first of which is Viktor Hovland (1.62) to win the ‘Top Scandinavian’ market. All three Swedish opponents in that market are out of sorts at the moment and have poor course records. Hovland looks to be a solid option.

The second price is Emiliano Grillo (1.91) to win the ‘Top South American’ market. The Argentinian has posted top 10 finishes in his last two starts, including 5th last week in Mexico. Grillo topped the SG: Approach stats last week and is expected to go well again this week, especially with a couple of top 15 finishes to his name at Quail Hollow. The recent form of Alejandro Tosti is respected but Grillo’s course knowledge gives him the edge over Tosti and Nicolas Echavarria.

Quail Hollow has thrown up a few surprise winners over the years and Cameron Champ could well be a name worth considering if the winner is to come from those further down the betting. Champ was impressive last week in Mexico, posting a top 10 finish and ranking 8th SG: Tee to Green. He’s been out of sorts most of the year but it’s not a dissimilar run of form to his previous PGA Tour win in 2021 at the 3M Open. You can back Champ at 226.0 with eight each-way places using Bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ market.

However, it is the name of Si Woo Kim who ranks as this week’s best bet. The South Korean will be looking forward to returning to Quail Hollow following his excellent performance in the Presidents Cup in September. He top scored for the International side that week, defeating Justin Thomas in the singles in the process.

Kim was last seen teaming up with Tom Kim to finish 7th at the Zurich Classic and with the exception of the RBC Heritage, had gained strokes with his approach play and driving in his previous five starts. A winner already this season, he makes each-way appeal at 81.0 with Bet365 and their eight each way places.