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Astute punters should bet early in the morning or the night before at Royal Ascot, shopping around for the top value and play when the terms are in your favour. The on-course betting ring has some of the biggest layers in the country, more than willing to lay bets in any size demanded, but in the past decade or so most of the business has left the track and resides on the betting exchanges or off-course firms.
However, the expenses for those surviving bookies remain high for layers and as a result they now bet to a much higher margin, with the prices broadly uniform and always several ticks below the betfair price (particularly away from the front of the market).
There is no doubt at all that the value lies at the pick of the morning prices with the numerous off-course bookmakers, all fighting each other to be top price the front ones in the market (and usually with best odds guaranteed and 1/4 the odds a place all races).
At all major festivals these days, the price grid in the early markets is close to 100pc when taking into account the best prices available….and the astute punter is usually given a much easier time of things “getting on” given the nature of the ultra competitive racing
2022 sees over six million pounds on offer in prize money at the Royal meeting, almost a 70pc increase on the £3.61m offered in 2020 (despite the effects of the global pandemic in the past couple of years). These five top class days have traditionally attracted runners from all around the world and in recent years this has grown considerably.
There have been steady year on year increases in the number of runners from overseas and astute punters are advised to always give them maximum respect, especially as the UK betting market often underestimates their chances. Wesley Ward (top USA trainer who specialises in producing very pacey speedballs) usually aims his fastest juveniles at this meeting, and they have made a real impact (often looking more like 3-y-o’s against their leaner UK opponents).
This year Ward has a real banker, with his 4-y-o sprinter Golden Pal heading to the Kings Stand Stakes, and his trainer labelling him as the “bets he has ever trained” after his latest win in America. The French challenge has traditionally been strong, with trainers like Andre Fabre enjoying fantastic success over the years, while the German and Japanese trainers are well worth a second glance with anything they send across.
The round course at Ascot is notably sharp in relation to other tracks, with the races often won by those racing handily and getting first run off the final turn (and quickening clear while others are forced to fan out wide and lose ground from off the back). This is especially true on fast ground that tends to always prevail at the Royal meeting.
Try and identify obvious front-runners who are likely to get an uncontested lead and dictate their own tempo (lone frontrunners can be particularly lethal when allowed to make their own fractions). Often in the Group 1’s a pacemaker will be added to assist the market leader (with Aidan O’Brien in particularly very adept at getting tactics right for his best horses).
The best and most successful punters work out how you they think the races will be run, lean towards those likely to be ridden forwards and avoid jockeys such as Jamie Spencer who are often looking to do the impossible and come from last to first regardless of the tempo of the race. Jockeys like Moore and Dettori have a fantastic record at the Royal meeting, with their excellent judgement of pace built up by decades of experience at the highest level, but also keep an eye out for up and coming riders like Kevin Stott (who is gaining a rapidly growing reputation amongst professionals).
Royal Ascot in June 2022 as usual falls right in the middle of a very busy summer season on the turf, coming hot on the heels of the after Guineas and Derby meetings at Newmarket and Epsom. For many horses it can be one race too many in a short space of time, with the fast ground taking its toll and the edge taken off their peak performance by previous battles at the highest level.
Search instead for runners deliberately aimed at this meeting, with perhaps just one run so far this season and other targets swerved to wait for the valuable prizes on offer (those who have been running on the all-weather through the winter have a poor record in the handicaps over these five days).
The two-year-old races in particular tend to go to runners with just one or perhaps two runs under their belt so far, as the exposed, proven sorts are found wanting as the later classier juveniles come out from the top yards. Some of the early season, small field form on the turf can also be meaningless if it has come on much lesser company on easier ground, and that winning form does not often get backed up as the ground changes.
The Royal Ascot course is always in immaculate condition, with state of the art watering ensuring that there is a full covering of grass and the turf usually riding on the faster side of good (and often genuinely fast by the Friday and Saturday if the weather holds).
However, there can be a pronounced bias towards one side of the track or the other on the straight course, and the shrewd punters will be very quick to latch onto this by watching carefully the first race or two each day. Sometimes the apparent dominance of high or low drawn numbers can be down to where the pace is drawn in any race, but frequently a strip of ground will be slightly faster and this can translate to a significant advantage by the finish of some of the big field handicaps (where the field always splits into at least two groups).
With all the racing priced up early, the astute players can take advantage of any bias by backing a few of the runners with the best draw later on in the card (before the public latches on and the prices crash).