| Monday, October 3, 2022 10:17 AM (Revised at: Thursday, November 10, 2022 10:32 AM)

How To Bet On the 2022 National Hunt Racing Season: 10 Pointers To Improve Your Betting

Stephen Harris

As the long summer rolls on into Autumn, punters eagerly anticipate the start of the jumps season proper, with the Chepstow meeting at the start of October always signaling the changing of the codes.

Ground conditions should now be easing as the rains arrive, and the bigger stables start to bring out their better horses for the long winter ahead.

The early season jumps racing has been plagued by very small fields on fast ground, with some uncompetitive action that has failed to inspire much betting interest, but there is no doubt now that things are beginning to pick up.

Here at bettingexpert, we have compiled ten hints for punters this National Hunt season.

In this article:

Follow the up and coming stables and avoid the “priced in” top name yards
Watch the racing and watch the replays, making notes and putting horses in a tracker
Only play when the price is right
Latch onto the young claiming jockeys early
Keep on track of stable form
Check the weather and ground conditions each morning
Know the tracks and their different characteristics
Race tactics are crucial…how will the race be run?
Look for angles and edges that the market may miss
Keep a cool head and never chase your losses

1 – Follow the up and coming stables and avoid the “priced in” top name yards

The top yards runners are rarely missed by the market, with the sheer scale of their businesses meaning there are very few secrets.

Indeed, very often the runners of Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson will be overbet in relation to their apparent chance on form. Clearly, all these yards have a fantastic track record of success over the years, with all now having over 150+ horses in as the jumps season proper gets underway, but from a punting point of view it can pay to look elsewhere.

Try to latch onto lesser known stables that are not so much in the public eye, yards like Rebecca Menzies, Sam England, David Jeffreys and Phil Kirby are all well capable when given the right ammunition.

2 – Watch the racing and watch the replays, making notes and putting horses in a tracker

“Keep your eyes open and your ears shut” has always been excellent advice when it comes to betting, and it is no less true today in the modern exchange-driven age.

There is simply no substitute for the hard grind of watching the racing, making notes, watching the replays again, using your tracker to keep an eye on horses to “be with” next time out.

It remains amazing how much is missed away from the obvious by the main providers of racing data, with their work often done by people who would not be successful punters themselves.

3 – Only play when the price is right

The price in betting is absolutely everything. Any punter can fancy a winner, or stay loyal to a certain horse that he follows over a cliff, but the true talent in betting comes from determining actual true prices and playing accordingly.

Try to price up the races you feel has a good shape to be a punter, without “cheating” by looking at the exchanges first, and get to exactly 100% with your own set of tissue prices.

It serves a terrific purpose because you very rarely make anything especially short, and these days the value almost always lies away from the well found front of the market.

Obviously unknown factors, like fitness or physical issues, can change the prices late on as the sharp money enters the picture, but it is still a very good idea to have a basic framework of how you envisage the true chances of the contenders each time you place a bet.

4 – Latch onto the young claiming jockeys early

Rather like the top trainers, the mounts of the very best jockeys always attract a huge following and can compress the price.

The days of McCoy and Walsh may be long gone, but there is still always a big market for Brian Hughes or Harry Skelton regardless of the form claims of their rides. Try to note down young claiming riders who seem to be well balanced over a fence, have a good judgment of pace and are tidy in a finish.

I remember going to a point to point over 10 years ago now, and the pony race beforehand saw the two Bowen boys (Sean and James) fighting out the finish, and both (at the age of about 12) looked like junior Lester Piggott’s in the saddle.

At the moment, Jack Tudor is very much a rider to follow, and he has started to attract the attention of some of the bigger yards like Nicky Henderson, while Tom Cannon is vastly improved and particularly adept from the front.

5 – Keep on track of stable form

One of the most important factors in betting is the form of the individual stable, something that is still not always noted by the market. Dead yards in particular tend to still be bet as though in
top form, and realizing that something may not be quite 100% is a big edge in the punters armory.

This season at Perth for example, the usual success of the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
was notably missing, with all of their first time out runners clearly just needing the run. The market however sent nearly all of them off as short priced favourites, such is his record there
over the last decade or more.

6 – Check the weather and ground conditions each morning

Twitter has been one of the great aids to a punters armory in recent years, with the amount of information available absolutely brilliant for finding edges.

In particular, real time weather and going updates from the tracks is a real positive in assessing the likely conditions on the day (and any changes that may have happened).

Watering updates are also well worth keeping an eye on (with all clerks trying to avoid ground faster than good over jumps), while any NRs also come through instantly and are important as the each-way terms often change the shape of betting on a race altogether.

7 – Know the tracks and their different characteristics

NH tracks in the UK are all completely unique, with characteristics that suit certain horses’ run styles and not others (particularly when the ground turns soft).

Form from stiff tracks like Hexham for example, will have little bearing on what is likely to happen at somewhere like Market Rasen (where speed is usually of the essence in the summer especially).

Even top tracks like Cheltenham and Newbury place totally different demands on runners, with the undulations and stiff fences at Prestbury Park often producing real course specialists who reserve their best form for that venue.

Newbury is a proper flat galloping track, where relentless grinding sound jumpers who can get into a smooth rhythm are favoured.

Some tracks are similar and the form can cross over seamlessly i.e Ffos Las and Newbury, and it is well worth learning the different demands to understand how form works out over the
entire season.

8 – Race tactics are crucial…how will the race be run?

Working out how a race will be run is another key weapon that the astute punter needs to develop.

Will there be a fast pace? Who is going to lead? Will the frontrunners duel and set things up for a hold up ride? Is there a part of the track where the ground is better? Which jockeys are aware of this bias?

These are all questions that should be asked before trying to price up the race on the day to 100%. Playing hold up horses each-way in races where there are three or four confirmed frontrunners is a very profitable edge that can still be exploited and is particularly effective in some of the 16+ runner handicaps on a Saturday when the prize money attracts big fields
and the place terms (1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4+) are suddenly very much tilted in the punters favour.

Track bias is another edge worth exploring, with some of the top tracks often having a big bias in terms of the best ground conditions on the day i.e Cheltenham on the hurdle track often is a lot better out wider on the stands rail when the ground turns soft (or overwatered), while both Plumpton and Fontwell are often better away from the soup up the chewed up inside rail in the winter months.

9 – Look for angles and edges that the market may miss

The modern betting market is a very different place to even ten years ago, with exchanges completely dominant both in terms of where most of the betting action takes place, but
also in terms of setting the prices for all of the bookmakers on and off-course to follow religiously.

In recent years the liquidity has begun to fall very dramatically on horse racing markets, and this
has undoubtedly led to some wildly inaccurate prices being available in the early markets (with around 20 established UK bookmakers all pricing up every race every day from a few hundred
pounds matched on the leading betting exchange).

Obviously this has made getting on particularly difficult (especially midweek on lower grade racing), with the bigger firms seemingly having no confidence in their early morning prices (and moving them quickly and frequently right up to a more settled market close to the off).

The astute punter can still exploit these weaker markets, but it does mean having access to as many accounts as possible, using the exchanges, and being able to move quickly and decisively when value is identified.

10 – Keep a cool head and never chase your losses

One of the main reasons that some of the best NH punters do not succeed (despite being a good judge of the form book), is that they deal badly with adverse circumstances or a losing run.

Keeping a cool head in betting is absolutely vital, never chase your losses, have a plan of attack each day and stay in second gear rather than get hotted up worrying about trying to win on the day.

Take a long run view of all your betting, keep a separate betting bank away from everyday expenses, and treat your punting seriously.

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