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mixed-martial-arts | piątek, czerwiec 11, 2021 11:42 AM
UFC 263 Odds, Tips, Analysis
UFC 263 Odds, Tips, Analysis
Jeff Brown/ZUMA Wire/Alamy Live News

UFC 263 Time, Date & Place:

  • Saturday 12th June (13th June 3am UK time)
  • Gila River Arena
  • Glendale, Arizona

In this article:


UFC 263: Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Odds & Tip

UFC 263’s main event features Israel ‘Stylebender’ Adesanya defending his Middleweight belt against Marvin ‘The Italian Dream’ Vettori. This will be a rematch of their fight in April 2018, where Adesanya was the victor by split decision.

Adesanya vs Vettori Odds ODDS PROBABILITY
Adesanya to win 1.36 73.53%
Vettori to win 3.25 30.77%

All odds at bet365 11th June 2021, odds may now differ.

Israel Adesanya Style & Form:

Adesanya faced his first UFC defeat against Jan Blachowicz in his most recent fight in early March 2020. He had previously amassed a record of 20 victories in his MMA career, most of them via KO/TKO.

Adesanya built his UFC career on his kickboxing, pace, and exceptional fight IQ. His stand-up game is one of the best in the entire MMA world, and he has repeatedly been compared to the likes of Anderson Silva. His resume of victories includes Paolo Costa, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, and Marvin Vettori.

Adesanya is the UFC Middleweight champion and will be looking to defend his title for the third time. This would cement his legacy as one of the best Middleweight fighters to ever step into the octagon.

He has a kickboxing record of 80 fights and an incredible 75 victories. The only hole in Adesanya’s game is his wrestling. Both Vettori and Blachowicz have found success against him on the ground. This is where Adesanya doesn’t look comfortable despite having a purple belt in BJJ.

Marvin Vettori Style & Form:

Marvin Vettori has also carved out an impressive MMA career at age 27. He fought in 22 MMA matches and won 17. Vettori also suffered four losses in his career, one of them being a split decision against Stylebender.

Vettori is predominantly a grappler, with nine of his victories being by submission. In fact, his UFC debut was a guillotine submission victory over BJJ black belt Alberto Uda. But, he can also play the stand-up game against most fighters, with dangerous counters and no lack of power in his hands. Vettori is on a five-fight winning streak after his defeat to Adesanya.

His last two fights were against Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland.

Vettori looked a lot more confident in his wrestling, especially against Kevin Holland.

Vettori struggled in his first two rounds against Adesanya, trying to match his stand-up. The reason for that is he failed to check Stylebender’s leg kicks. He found success in the third round, where he adopted an all-or-nothing approach to his takedowns. This allowed him to get Izzy on the ground, where he couldn’t use his range and striking advantage.

Adesanya vs Vettori Best Bet

Adesanya is the defending champion, and it will be up to Vettori to bring the fight to him and impress the judges. Adesanya is a superb technical striker and can easily outstrike Vettori. His 12-centimeter reach advantage has brought him lots of success in their last bout.

Vettori will have to close the distance and turn this fight into a brawl. This will take away Adesanya’s biggest strength and allow Vettori to go for takedowns. Cardio was his main point of concern in his career, but he has made significant improvements in that regard.

Adesanya is viewed as the favorite in this one, with the bookmakers giving him 1.40 odds of winning. Vettori is valued at 3.00 odds to take it.

Neither fighter has been knocked out in their UFC careers, and it’s unlikely we will see a knockout in this one.

Prediction: Fight to go the distance at 1.66 odds.

Click here for more Adesanya vs Vettori tips.


UFC 263: Figuiredo vs Brandon Moreno Odds & Tip

Deiveson Figueiredo takes on Brandon Moreno hoping to defend his Flyweight once again. He won the title in July 2020 against Joseph Benavidez.

Figueiredo and Moreno faced each other in December 2020, but the fight was ruled a draw. Figueiredo was deducted a point due to an accidental groin strike. This will be the co-main event of UFC 263 and the second title fight of the event.

Figuiredo vs Moreno Odds ODDS PROBABILITY
Figuiredo to win 1.44 69.44%
Moreno to win 2.87 34.84%

All odds at bet365 11th June 2021, odds may now differ.

Deiveson Figueiredo Style & Form:

Figueiredo has fought six times since July 2019 and won five of them. His biggest challenge as UFC champion has been Brandon Moreno in one of the best fights the Flyweight division has ever seen. He holds a professional MMA record of 20 wins, one loss, and one draw.

Figueiredo’s fighting style is based on his exceptional grappling. His earliest exposure to martial arts was to the sport of ‘luta marajoara’, the local wrestling style. He also earned a black belt in BJJ along with eight career victories by submission.

Figueiredo is also very creative in his stand-up game and is very unpredictable. His creativeness can often surprise and stun his opponents. He also has very powerful hands for a Flyweight fighter, along with exceptional endurance.

He has never been knocked out in his career and can maintain a very high tempo throughout five rounds.Figueiredo is very hard to take down and is never passive once the fight transitions to the ground.

It’s unlikely he will try to outwrestle Moreno, with both fighters being exceptional grapplers. In their previous bout, Figueiredo tried to finish the fight with his striking power. This exposed him to takedowns and kept the fight close.

Brandon Moreno Style & Form:

Brandan Moreno made his way to the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter series. His first UFC fight was against Louis Smolka and won the fight via guillotine choke in the first round.

Moreno holds an MMA record of 18 victories, five losses, and two draws. He has also never been submitted or knocked out, with all of his five defeats coming via decision.

Moreno won three fights in a row to earn himself his first title shot against Figueiredo. However, he was unable to secure a win and will have to try again this weekend. He performed very well in that fight, taking Figueiredo’s most powerful strikes, and managing to secure crucial takedowns. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to make any progress and the fight quickly went back to the feet.

Moreno’s striking is at a very high level, and his use of the head kick can be an effective weapon in the next fight as well.

He isn’t considered the most powerful fighter in the division, with only two TKOs in his UFC career. However, his grappling has earned him 10 career submission wins.

Moreno’s volume of striking was a very effective weapon in their last meet-up, but he wasn’t able to finish the fight. The key in this fight for him will be timing and defense in the stand-up.

He will have to recognize when Figueiredo is preparing to unleash a powerful combination and avoid getting caught. Then, he will have to bring the fight to his opponent and use his volume to persuade the judges into giving him the victory.

Figueiredo vs Moreno Best Bet

The deciding factor in this fight will be the endurance and durability of Figueiredo. He cuts a lot of weight for his fights, sacrificing his conditioning and ability to take heavy shots. He must avoid trying to finish the fight quickly, as Moreno is one of the toughest fighters the division has to offer.

On the other side, Moreno can’t let his opponent walk him down again, and will have to be the one dictating the tempo of the fight. He will have to avoid the central line and avoid getting caught with Figueiredo’s heavy strikes.

Prediction: Figueiredo to win at 1.44 odds.

Click here for more Figueiredo vs Moreno tips.


UFC 263 Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Odds & Tip

The Welterweight division brings fans a battle between two UFC superstars in Leon Edwards and Nate Diaz.

Edwards is one of the best Welterweight fighters working toward a potential title shot. Nate Diaz is a UFC legend looking to make a comeback to the Welterweight rankings with a victory over a high-profile opponent.

Both fighters are proven UFC veterans with multiple victories against the best talent the competition has to offer.

EDWARDS vs DIAZ Odds ODDS PROBABILITY
Edwards to win 1.18 84.75%
Diaz to win 5.00 20.00%

All odds at bet365 11th June 2021, odds may now differ.

Leon Edwards Style & Form:

Fans will finally get a chance to see Leon Edwards in the octagon again, after his fight against Khamzat Chimaev never materialized. Edwards has fought in 22 MMA matches and won 18. Nine of his victories were by decision, six by knockout, and three by submission.

His last fight was a no-contest due to an accidental eye poke to his opponent. Before this, Edwards was on an eight-fight winning streak. He quickly made his way to the top 3 in the UFC Welterweight rankings.

Edwards is a fighter who has a tight stand-up game and efficient grappling. This makes him a well-rounded fighter with very few weaknesses. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his MMA career, and his only two defeats in the were decisions. One of them was against the current division champion Kamaru Usman. The other can be attributed to first-day nerves in his UFC debut against Claudio Silva.

Nate Diaz Style & Form:

Nate Diaz is one of the most entertaining fighters to ever step into the octagon. His 32 career fights speak volumes to his fighting spirit.

His career took a turn for the worst in his last 10 fights, with five victories and five defeats. His most recent fight was a TKO defeat against Jorge Masvidal due to an eye injury.

Diaz is known in the MMA world as one of the toughest fighters in the game. He gained a reputation for his constant pressure on opponents, exceptional cardio, and lethal boxing skills. Additionally, Nate Diaz holds a BJJ 2nd degree black belt under Cesar Gracie.

In fact, 11 of his 20 victories have come off submissions. Nate is a very durable fighter with an excellent chin. His opponents often get discouraged upon finding out that Nate is almost impossible to knock out. His only real knockout defeat was in 2013 against Josh Thompson.

It’s difficult to imagine Nate going for a knockout in this one, especially against a fighter that has never been knocked out. He will have to utilize his pressure and boxing as much as possible in order to throw Edwards off his game plan.

Edwards vs Diaz Best Bet

Although we have to respect the toughness and durability of Nate Diaz, it’s important to note that he is now 36 years old and hasn’t fought in a year and a half.

Diaz has been taking shots his entire career and his body and head have suffered. It’s difficult to imagine him bringing a vintage Diaz performance against a fighter the caliber of Leon Edwards.

Edwards will use his speed, explosiveness, and movement in the stand-up to target Nate’s head and open up the scar tissue around Nate’s eyes.

Knowing Nate, he will likely endure through the five rounds. But, Edwards will get more significant strikes and cause a lot of damage to Nate’s head and body.

Prediction: Edwards to win decision by or technical decision at 2.25 odds.

Click here for more Edwards vs Diaz tips.


UFC 263 Acca Tips

  • Maia vs Mohammad – Mohammad to win at 1.44 odds
  • Adesanya vs Vettori – Adesanya by decision at 2.40 odds
  • Figueiredo vs Moreno – Figueiredo by decision at 3.25
  • Edwards vs Diaz – Edwards by decision or technical decision at 2.25
  • Dober vs Riddell – Riddell to win at 2.10 odds

Total: 53.07 odds

Odds at bet365 June 10th 2021. Odds may now differ

 

1. Mohammad to win

Belal Mohammad suffered an eye injury in his previous bout against Leon Edwards and was unable to continue the fight. But, Belal was on a four-fight winning streak before this fight and in excellent shape.

He is in the peak of his prime and looking to make a grab for the top of the Welterweight rankings. He is very difficult to take down, with a takedown defense of over 80%.

Demian Maia is an experienced UFC vet with 38 fights under his belt. Maia is 43 years old and it’s difficult to imagine him getting much success against Mohammad. Maia is a submission specialist and has 14 submission victories in his career.

That said, Mohammad is also prominent on the ground and has a tendency to get back to his feet easily.

Click here for more Maia vs Mohammad tips.

2. Adesanya by decision

Vettori will be looking to repeat his success from the third round of their previous meeting. He will attempt to smother Adesanya by following the recipe of Jan Blachowicz. He has mostly been working on his takedowns and conditioning for this one.

That said, Blachowicz is in the Light-heavyweight division and is a much heavier fighter.

Adesanya is very good at preventing takedowns with a takedown defense of 82%. He will also use the larger octagon to his advantage.

This event will also be a five-rounder, and Vettori’s conditioning will have to be at an elite level if he wants to succeed with this strategy.

The champ will likely pick Vettori apart with his kicks and boxing, and avoid the takedown by keeping his distance.

Click here for more Adesanya vs Vettori tips.

3. Figueiredo by KO/TKO

Figueiredo was deducted a point in their last fight due to an accidental groin strike. That said, he lacked respect for Moreno’s striking at times and failed to defend against some dangerous kicks and punches.

Both fighters are excellent grapplers, and the fight will likely be decided in the stand-up again and this is where the champion has an edge.
He has the power to put opponents to sleep and Moreno got a taste of it in their last bout.

Moreno has earned the respect of the defending champion, along with UFC fans with his last performance. He proved that he is a legitimate title contender and that he can exchange strikes with the best in the division.

However, Figuiredo’s power is something that gives him the ultimate advantage in this bout. He caused Moreno a lot of damage and will likely use even more kicks to the body and legs in this one.

Click here for more Figueiredo vs Moreno tips.

4. Edwards by decision or technical decision

This one is a bit more specific than the first three and there is a good reason for that.

Nate Diaz is a very durable fighter, and his body has recovered well due to his long absence from the octagon. However, one thing that is a constant with Nate Diaz is that his eyes get cut very easily.

We saw this in his last bout against Masvidal, where the fight was stopped due to a huge cut above Nate’s eye.

This will become even more evident as soon as Edwards throws his patented elbow when braking from the clinch. This was an excellent weapon in his fight against Mohammad and he will surely use it again. This will open another cut on Nate’s eye, making the doctor call a stoppage.

Click here for more Edwards vs Diaz tips.

5. Riddell to win

Riddell is currently on a five-fight winning streak and is making a name for himself in the UFC. He has a kickboxing background of 59 wins and has more than enough quality and experience to go against Dober.

On the other side, Dober has an extensive MMA resume, with 34 total fights and 23 wins. However, he doesn’t have the cardio to go against someone like Riddell and his grappling is not something that can be his go-to weapon at this level.

This will likely be a very interesting fight, with lots of striking combinations. Ultimately, Ridell will come out on top with his crisp striking and better cardio.

Click here for more Dober vs Riddell tips.


UFC 263 Quick Picks

My quick picks throughout the entire card, including the prelims.

Main Card:

  • Adesanya vs Vettori – Adesanya to win
  • Figueiredo vs Moreno – Figueiredo to win
  • Edwards vs Diaz – Edwards to win
  • Maia vs Mohammad – Mohammad to win
  • Craig vs Hill – Hill to win

Preliminary card:

  • Dober vs Riddell – Riddell to win
  • Anders vs Stewart – Anders to win
  • Murphy vs Calderwood – Calderwood to win
  • Evloev vs Dawodu – Dawodu to win

Early Prelims:

  • Kianzad vs Davis – Kianzad to win
  • Frevola vs McKinney – Frevola to win
  • Hooper vs Peterson – Hooper to win
  • Ziam vs Vendramini – Vandramini to win
  • Felipe vs Collier – Felipe to win

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