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mixed-martial-arts | Friday, July 30, 2021 8:30 AM
UFC 265 Odds, Tips, Analysis: Best Bets For UFC 265
UFC 265 Odds, Tips, Analysis: Best Bets For UFC 265
Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA


  • Saturday, 8th August, 23:00  (UK time)
  • Toyota Center
  • Houston, Texas

In this article:

UFC 265: Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Odds & Tip

Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane lock horns at UFC 265 for the interim UFC Heavyweight title. Lewis is the second-ranked heavyweight in the division whilst Gane is third. This is one of the most important fights of the year, with the winner of this one going on to challenge champion Francis Ngonnau.

Lewis to win 3.75 26.7%
Gane to win 1.28 78.1%

All odds at bet365 as at August 4th, 2021, 15:00 PM. Odds may now differ.

Derrick Lewis Style & Form:

The 36-year old fighter from New Orleans will be fighting for his second career title shot, after losing to Daniel Cormier almost three years ago. Lewis is currently on a four-fight winning streak and coming off an impressive KO victory over Curtis Blaydes.

Derrick Lewis has had an amazing career in the UFC so far, and it doesn’t seem like he is planning to retire any time soon. Lewis is known for his incredible knockout power and resilience. In fact, Lewis is tied for the most knockouts in UFC history with a total of 12.

Derrick Lewis holds an MMA record of 27 wins and 7 losses and has notable victories over the likes of Francis Ngonnau, Alexander Volkov, Alexei Oleinik, and others. He has been knocked out four times in his professional career, but his most recent knockout defeat was more than two years ago.

Derrick Lewis has kept roughly the same fighting style throughout his career, and he likes to keep his fights on the feet. Wrestling has always been one of his largest weaknesses, along with his poor cardio. But, Lewis has proven to be a very patient fighter who likes to wait for his opportunity to explode and end fights in a hurry.

His right hand is by far his biggest, and some may say his only weapon. Nonetheless, this strategy has served him well in the past and he is on track to get another shot at the UFC Heavyweight title.

Ciryl Gane Style & Form:

Ciryl Gane only started his professional Muay Thai career at the age of 24 and started doing MMA at 28. Still, he managed to reach the UFC after just three professional MMA fights and he is already a title contender in the UFC Heavyweight division.

Gane currently holds an MMA record of 9 wins and no defeats, with three knockouts, decisions, and submissions each. Cyril Gane has already faced very tough competition and defeated Tanner Bosser, Junior Dos Santos, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

His most recent fight was a decision victory over Alexander Volkov, and the UFC has recognized his talents. He is a very exciting fighter because he is not a typical heavyweight.

Gane is very big and has a long reach, but his movement is what separates him from the rest of the division. He is very light on his feet and uses his agility to dictate the distance and circle out of any unwanted situations.

His Muay Thai background has served him well, and he is an excellent striker. Conditioning is not a problem for Ciryl, which he has proven in his last two fights, going all five rounds in both.

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Best Bet

Ciryl Gane is the favorite coming into this one, and the bookmakers have him winning the fight at 1.28 odds. On the other side, Lewis is valued at 3.75 to come out on top.

Gane is the better overall fighter in this one, and almost all of the factors are on his side. He is quicker, has the reach advantage, stamina, and better technical striking. Derrick Lewis has massive power in his hands and has knocked fighters like Gane out before.

Still, Gane has impressed with his footwork, striking, and grappling. He is the more complete fighter, and unless Lewis manages to pull off the impossible again, Gane will be the victor.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at 2.05 odds.

Click here for more Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane tips.

UFC 265 Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz Odds & Tip

Jose Aldo faces Pedro Munhoz at UFC 265 in a battle between two UFC veterans hoping to get back to the top of the UFC Bantamweight division. Both fighters are 34 years old and nearing the end of their careers, making this fight crucial for both men.

Aldo vs Munhoz Odds ODDS PROBABILITY
Jose Aldo to win 1.80 55.6%
Pedro Munhoz to win 2.00 50.0%

All odds at bet365 as at August 4th, 2021, 15:00 PM. Odds may now differ.

Jose Aldo  & Form:

Jose Aldo will go down as one of the greatest UFC Featherweights to ever step into the octagon. He is the former two-time UFC Featherweight champion and has shown greatness multiple times throughout his career.

With an MMA record of 29 wins and 7 defeats, Aldo has a whopping 17 total career knockout wins, 11 decisions, and one submission. He is known in the UFC as a very powerful striker and a vicious opponent.

However, his career came to a halt in December 2015 when he was knocked out cold by Conor McGregor at UFC 194. Aldo never fully recovered after that fight and has a record of four victories and five losses since. Although he managed to retain his Featherweight title following that fight, he lost it to Max Holloway right after.

After going on a three-fight losing streak from May 2019 to July 2020, Jose Aldo bounced back with a victory over Marlon Vera and is now looking to make a full comeback.

Aldo is known around the UFC as a very sharp striker, but he can also mix in his wrestling and BJJ skills when necessary. He has used his grappling mostly for defensive purposes, but he was very aggressive in his most recent bout.

Aldo will have a striking advantage in this fight, and he will likely go back to his roots, and try to end the fight via KO/TKO, given that Munhoz is a very deadly grappler. This will likely be his last chance to get back to the top, and he can’t afford to take chances.

Pedro Munhoz Style & Form:

Pedro Munhoz holds a UFC record of 19 victories and 5 defeats and is currently the 10th-ranked UFC Bantamweight fighter. However, Munhoz has never held a UFC title in his career, and his window to make it happen is slowly closing.

Out of his 19 wins, five have come off KO/TKOs, eight via submission, and six by decision. Munhoz is a very good striker, but it’s his grappling that has brought him his bread and butter. On the other hand, Munhoz went toe-to-toe with Cody Garbrandt and was victorious by TKO, giving him his striking stripes.

Munhoz has a very good chin and is very difficult to finish. In fact, all of his career defeats have come off decisions, and he has never been knocked out as a professional fighter. This gives him a huge advantage going into this fight and his confidence must be at a very high level.

After losing two fights in a row against Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar, Munhoz recovered nicely with a victory over Jimmie Rivera. In that regard, he is in the same situation as Aldo, and this will likely be his final chance of reaching the top five and contending for a title shot.

Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz Best Bet

The bookmakers have Aldo to win at 1.80 odds, whilst Munhoz is valued at 2.00. Aldo is coming into this one with one major advantage – an 18-centimeter reach advantage. Aldo is a better and more powerful striker, and Munhoz simply isn’t on that level.

Munhoz isn’t the type of fighter to throw straight one-two combinations, which is exactly what he needs to do if he wants to win. Aldo is simply too good a boxer and his reach advantage will be the deciding factor in this one.

Prediction: Aldo to win at 1.80 odds.

Click here for more Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz tips.

UFC 265 Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque Odds & Tip

Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque face each other at UFC 265 in a fight between the fifth and sixth-ranked fighters in the UFC Welterweight division. Both fighters are in excellent form and are on winning streaks, but only one can move forward and contend for the UFC Welterweight title.

Chiesa vs Luque Odds ODDS PROBABILITY
Michael Chiesa to win 2.00 50.0%
Vicente Luque to win 1.80 55.6%

All odds at bet365 as at August 4th, 2021, 15:00 PM. Odds may now differ.

Michael Chiesa Style & Form:

The 33-year old Colorado native Michael Chiesa is currently the fifth-ranked UFC Welterweight fighter. He has been in the UFC since 2013 and holds an MMA record of 19 victories and four losses.

Chiesa made his way to the UFC through the TUF series, winning the tournament in the final against Al Iaquinta by rear-naked choke.

His career has been successful, but he has never fought for a title, and this is his opportunity to make it happen. He is currently on a four-fight winning streak and carrying a lot of momentum. Chiesa holds notable wins in the UFC over Beneil Dariush, Diego Sanchez, Neil Magny, and Rafael dos Anjos.

Chiesa is known in the UFC as a very dangerous grappler, and 11 of his victories have come off submissions. His striking has never been at a very high level, and he has never finished a fight via KO/TKO. He uses his striking mostly as a way of setting up takedowns.

He will definitely be at a striking disadvantage in this one, so don’t expect him to spend too much time exchanging shots.

Vicente Luque Style & Form:

Vicente Luque had a similar career path to his opponent, making it to the UFC through the TUF series. Luque got his UFC opportunity despite losing in the final of the series, and he has been an excellent investment since.

Luque holds an MMA record of 20 wins and 7 losses, but he has only lost two fights whilst in the UFC. 11 of his wins have come via KO/TKO, with 7 submissions and 2 decisions.

Luque is a very complete fighter, with excellent striking and deadly grappling. He has faced top-tier UFC talent and his results are excellent. His only two losses in the UFC were against Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. On the other hand, he holds victories over Tyron Woodley, Niko Price, Mike Perry, and Bella Mohammad.

Vicente Luque is a legitimate contender, and his elite striking is what separates him from Chiesa in this one. Not only that, but Luque has shown excellent takedown defense, especially in his bout against Tyron Woodley.

His ground game is also at a very high level, and he has the ability to use it for both offense and defense. He will be coming into this one on a three-fight winning streak and with a lot of momentum.

Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque Best Bet

The bookmakers have Luque as the slight favorite in this one and value him to win the fight at 1.80 odds. Chiesa is given 2.00 odds to get the job done.
Both fighters have the same reach, but Luque is coming into the fight with an advantage. Luque is an elite striker and has 11 career wins by KO/TKO whilst Chiesa has none. Michael Chiesa does have more career submission wins, but their grappling is at a similar level.

Luque is the more complete fighter with more weapons in his arsenal, whilst Chiesa relies too much on his grappling.

Prediction: Vicente Luque to win at 1.80 odds.

Click here for more Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque tips.


UFC 265 Acca Tips

  • Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane– Gane to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at 2.05 Odds
  • Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz– Aldo to win by KO/TKO at 4.33 Odds
  • Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque– Luque to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at  3,00 Odds

Total:  26.62

Odds at bet365 4th August 2021. 15:00 PM.  Odds may now differ

1. Gane to win by KO/TKO

Gane is coming into this fight as the favorite and he is the more complete fighter. His main advantage in this one will be the fact that this is the main event, meaning the fight will go for five rounds. Derrick Lewis is known for having a lack of stamina, and his performance deteriorates as the fight goes on. Gane will use his movement and technical striking to tire out Lewis until Derrick starts dropping his hands. This is when Gane will do most of his damage and finish the fight somewhere in the fourth or fifth round.

Click here for more Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane tips.

2. Aldo to win by KO/TKO

Aldo is known in the UFC as an extremely powerful striker. He has 17 career KO/TKO victories along with a massive size and reach advantage in this one. He is by far the better striker, and he should be able to get the job done with his boxing, whilst avoiding submissions.

Click here for more Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz tips.

3. Luque to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission

Michael Chiesa is an elite grappler, and his 11 career submission wins are proof of his skills. However, Luque is also an excellent grappler and is not easy to submit. Although he has two submission losses in his early career, his grappling has improved a lot since joining the UFC. On the other hand, Luque is by far the better striker, and his deadly striking was seen in his latest bout against UFC legend Tyron Woodley. Luque is a rising star, and his elite striking will be enough to get the job done against a grapple-heavy opponent.

Click here for more Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque tips.

UFC 265 Quick Picks

My quick picks throughout the entire card, including the prelims.

Main Card:

  • Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane – Ciryl Ganecto win
  • Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz – Jose Aldo to win
  • Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque – Vicente Luque to win
  • Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill – Tecia Torres to win
  • Song Yadong vs Casey Kenney – Casey Kenney to win

Preliminary card:

  • Bobby Green vs Rafael Fiziev – Fafael Fiziev to win
  • Vince Morales vs Drako Rodriguez – Vince Morales to win
  • Alonzo Menifield vs Ed Herman – Alonzo Menifield to win
  • Karolina Kolwalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne – Karolina Kolwalkiewicz to win

Early Prelims:

  • Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne – Manel Kape to win
  • Miles Johns vs Anderson dos Santos – Miles Johns to win
  • Victoria Leonardo vs Melissa Gatto – Melissa Gatto to win
  • Johnny Munhoz vs Jamey Simmons – Johnny Munhoz to win

More UFC at bettingexpert

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