UFC 305 Predictions: 8.95 (+795) - Odds Parlay and Analysis for Du Plessis vs Adesanya, Kara-France vs Erceg, Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik, and more!

UFC 305 takes place this weekend in Perth, Australia with the Du Plessis vs Adesanya Middleweight title fight headlining the event. Our MMA expert Milan Stanojic has chosen 4 fights for his UFC 305 predictions and put them together in an 8.95-odds (+795) parlay for August 17th, 2024. 

Visit our Expert Insights section for more UFC news, predictions, and UFC 305 predictions!

In this article:

• Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prediction
• Kara-France vs Erceg Prediction
• Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Prediction
• Tafa vs Walker Prediction
• Safer Gambling

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UFC 305 Predictions Parlay Picks: 8.95 – odds For August 17th 2024

• Du Plessis to Win
• Erceg to Win
• Rozenstruik to Win
• Tafa to Win

Bet365 UFC 305 Parlay Odds: 8.40 – to Return 8.95 with Acca Boost 

Odds updated on August 13th, 2024.

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Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya Prediction: Tale as old as time

UFC 305 main event, August 17th 2024. 

• Selection: Du Plessis to Win
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: 1xBet
• Stake: 1/10

Odds updated on August 13th, 2024. 

This fight has been so long in the making that it might be too late. Adesanya has just turned 35 and is likely past his prime. 

Dricus Du Plessis is our current Middleweight champion after a split-decision victory over Sean Strickland. Before that, he TKOed Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 following a TKO win over Derek Brunson. 

Du Plessis is the more active fighter here, landing 6.49 strikes per minute while Adesanya only lands 3.93. However, he also absorbs 1.66 strikes per minute more than Adesanya. That said, he is undefeated in his MMA career so far, and I expect him to land at least 2-3 takedowns, giving him the edge in the eyes of the judges. 

I also expect age to be a big factor here. Izzy has been ruling the division for years now, and I don’t think he is as hungry as he needs to be in order to win here. My Du Plessis vs Adesanya prediction is Du Plessis by decision, but I’m taking the Moneyline bet at 2.25 odds. 

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Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg Prediction: Levels to the Game

UFC 305 co-main event, August 17th 2024. 

• Selection: Erceg to Win
• Best Odds: 1.62
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Odds updated on August 13th, 2024. 

Since joining the UFC a year ago, Steve Erceg has come a long way in just 4 fights. He is now the 7th-ranked fighter in the Flyweight division with a 3-1 UFC record. He earned a title shot against Alexandre Pentoja 3 months ago but lost by unanimous decision. 

Despite his solid striking, Erceg allowed the champ to land 6 takedowns and was never able to keep the fight standing for long enough. I don’t think this is going to be a problem here against Kara-France, a fighter averaging just 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and primarily a striker. 

Also, Kara-France has fought just twice in the last 2 years, losing against Brandon Moreno and Almir Albazi. He is 3-3 over the last 4 years and with 3 KO losses already in his career, I don’t see him as a good underdog option against Erceg. My Kara-France vs Erceg prediction is for Erceg to win. 

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Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction: Backing the more technical striker

• Selection: Rozenstruik to Win
• Best Odds: 1.47
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 8/10

Odds updated on August 13th, 2024. 

Tai Tuivasa is on a 4-fight losing streak, having been finished in each fight, twice by TKO and twice by submission. He is coming off an RNC submission loss to Marcin Tybura, the guy who just got destroyed by Serghei Spivac. This is a painful subject for me as I had 6 units on Tybura to win. 

Moving on. 

Tuivasa hasn’t taken his career and conditioning seriously in the last 2 years, and I don’t trust him here. He hasn’t shown any progress regarding his fighting style and is still happy to stay in the pocket and absorb his usual 5.05 strikes per minute. The recent Instagram videos of him training don’t have me convinced.

This is simply too much against an experienced fighter like Rozenstruik. Jairzinho is an experienced fighter with lots of kickboxing experience and is not easy to knock out. The only fighters who managed to do that were Francis Ngonnau and Alexander Volkov. His technicality and ability to chop the legs should allow him to get it done against a one-dimensional Tuivasa. 

My Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik prediction is for the latter to win by any means.

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Junior Tafa vs Valter Walker Prediction: Battle of the Little Brothers

• Selection: Tafa to Win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 4/10

Odds updated on August 13th, 2024.

There isn’t too much to say about this match-up, other than I don’t agree with the bookmakers here. Valter Walker has a huge reach advantage and is 3 inches taller than Junior Tafa, but his resume doesn’t exactly give me confidence. 

Despite landing 4 takedowns in his UFC debut he still managed to lose his fight against Lukas Brzaski – a fighter who had been on a 3-fight losing streak and who has since lost by TKO to Mick Parkin. 

Junior Tafa doesn’t have the best takedown defense but I believe he is going to be able to keep the fight standing here. His striking power should be enough to get him the win against a fighter who doesn’t really excel at anything in particular. My Tafa vs Walker prediction is for Tafa to win. 

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.