Stats Favour Arsenal, Chelsea and United as Future Title Winners
Every season it’s the same story, barely does the league title get lifted before we turn our attentions to the next most important day on the English football calendar; the Premier League fixture release. bettingexpert.com looks at the spectacular stats that suggest home advantage could be key.
Home on First Day Favours Title Winners
Suppose there was a pattern in past fixtures that could tip who the next Premier League champions may be on the final day of the season? Well the first round of fixtures will be played over the weekend of August 12th and the 13th, that we know for sure, but title challengers Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool (and maybe one or two more) could be forgiven for looking out for home advantage in the 2017/18 season. Why? bettingexpert’s research has concluded that in the last 10 years, seven Premier League winners have come from playing home advantage on the first day. Interestingly only three times have winning teams gone on to win the league by starting away from home.
Chelsea who just lifted their fifth Premier League crown are the latest recipients of playing at home on the opening day, and took full advantage, winning 2-1 against West Ham last August and going on to storm to the title back in May.
Stats point to Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea in 17/18
With the Premier League fixture list for 2017/18 announced it's Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United who will all be given home advantage to kick off their respected seasons.
In the last decade 70% of title challengers that are drawn with home advantage go on and win the league, and Manchester United have the luxury of a home game at Old Trafford on the final day of the season too; another added benefit to a potential title push. Jose Mourinho's side will be happy to take these favourable stats and combine it with some summer transfer business, before the bookend home games at Old Trafford against West Ham and Watford.
Champions Chelsea open at home to Burnley while Arsenal host Leicester, with both clubs hoping stats of 70% more likely to lift the Premier League title will reap future glory.
Can Manchester City defy the data? They have been drawn to play away on the opening day (v Brighton) and away on the final day of the season (v Southampton). If they can they will have to come from behind 'from the get go' with major title challengers starting away on the opening day only winning the title 30% of the time, while playing on the final day results in a 50% chance of league silverware. Pep Guardiola will likely keep strengthening his City side after the fixture release!
380 Fixtures and Four Clubs Taking Home Advantage
Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United have taken the fixture release of playing home either end of the season and backed it up with silverware, all on two occasions. Arsenal have done it just once and have since failed to pick up the league title, much to the club’s loyal fan base.
The data shows that getting a good start is more often than not, imperative to get right, and doing so in front of home fans is the way to do it.
Manchester City are this upcoming season’s title favourites with odds of 2/1 (3.00) at Paddy Power, so unlike this past season, City fans will be looking to buck the data. Chelsea are priced at 7/2 (4.50), Man Utd at 10/3 (4.33) and Arsenal further back at 11/1 (12.0).
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