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November is the month for Aguero goals


Bonfire night won’t be the only source of heat this month. According to our research, Manchester City’s Aguero is looking to set the pitch on fire, as statistics show that he scores 15%+ of his total season goals in November. He’s got a few star strikers alongside him, but others are showing some burn out.


He’s Hot and He’s Cold 

Of the Premier League players in focus, Aguero definitely has the strongest boot in November. Using his goal scoring data spanning from 2007 till now, Aguero has scored an average of 15.34% of his total season goals in the 4 month of the season, over 10% more goals than the November straggler, Sturridge of Liverpool.

However, Aguero tends to peak and then drop instantly around the holiday season, dropping his goal scoring by 8.46% in December. Now, it’s worth mentioning that Aguero spent 5 professional years playing with Atletico Madrid in La Liga, a league that tends to give their players some time to cosy up with family rather than scoring goals. This could explain his cooling period in the winter month.

The same excuse doesn’t apply to his performance in March, which drastically drops to less than a third of his November figures (4.76%). For Aguero, the numbers are showing that this is his time to shine if he wants to make an impact on the total season, because after this month he tends to fizzle out for a long period.

Chelsea v Everton: a song of Fire and Ice

An interesting matchup this Bonfire Night will be the meeting of Lukaku and Costa. Lukaku has been in excellent form this season, and is leading the standings for this year’s Golden Boot—and his November numbers are predicting a continuation. With Lukaku scoring 12.37% of his season goals in this month, Chelsea’s defensive line need to step up their game.

On the other end of the pitch is Costa, who is seemingly entering his cooler period. It seems that Costa is suffering from the burnout that is to be expected from Aguero in December—Costa shows his hottest streak in September and October before his big winter dip. Costa seems to be the one player that relies heavily on his early season hot streak, since he scores a third of his goals (32.88%) in September and October alone. ­­­

Bookmakers don’t seem to have their eyes on this data, as their odds are favouring Costa to score anytime at 10/11, while they have Lukaku at 21/10. Perhaps they’re banking on Costa due to his scoring in 3 out of his last 5 games—but if his trends hold, he might be without a goal for Bonfire Night fixture.

The English play the long game

It seems that our domestic strikers tend to use the first half of the season to warm up before they hit their stride. Both Vardy and Kane hit their peaks periods in March, respectively scoring 15.38% and 17.24% of their season goals at the start of spring.

However, Sturridge tends to hit hard right after ringing in the new year. In January and February, the Liverpool striker spikes out of his slower period, scoring 31.31% of his total season goals.

More facts from us

If you are interested in reading more articles built up around data trends, take a look at our Facts by Bettingexpert section where we analyse real data trends to help us predict future outcomes.