Atletico MG - Bahia

Atletico MG vs Bahia Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 5 November 2025

In this exciting Serie A clash, Atletico MG faces off against Bahia at 23:00 on 5 November 2025. The match is critical for both sides, with Atletico MG sitting 13th in the league with 37 points and Bahia in 5th place with 52 points. Atletico MG, the bookmakers’ favourite with odds of 2.15, aims to solidify their mid-table position, while Bahia seeks to cement their position in the top five.

Atletico MG is on a decent run, unbeaten in their last three home games, and coming off a strong performance in the Copa Sudamericana final stage. Their injuries and suspensions could impact their lineup, though, especially with key defender Vitor Hugo suspended.

Bahia, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results recently, but they have strong attacking capabilities led by top scorer Willian Jose. However, their away form has been less impressive, losing the last four away games.

Given both teams’ recent tendency to score few goals, our recommended bet is under 2.5 goals for this match. This prediction aligns with recent form and current standings, ensuring an intriguing encounter in Serie A.

Atletico MG vs Bahia Prediction & Betting tip

Atletico MG vs Bahia Prediction
Betting tip
Under 2.5 goals

Our recommended betting tip for this clash between Atletico MG and Bahia is "Under 2.5 goals".

• Both teams tend to score few goals in their recent games.
• Atletico MG’s recent home form includes a string of low-scoring matches, with a 3-2-0 unbeaten streak at home (6 goals scored, 2 conceded).
• Bahia has struggled away from home, losing their last four away games, and only managing to score 3 goals in that span.

Given these trends, the likelihood of a low-scoring match aligns well with the under 2.5 goals prediction.

Atletico MG vs Bahia Odds

The betting odds for the upcoming Serie A match between Atletico MG and Bahia highlight an interesting contest. Atletico MG is favoured by the bookmakers, though not overwhelmingly, indicating the competitive nature of this fixture. Here’s an overview of the odds:

Atletico MG vs Bahia Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Atletico MG	2.15
Draw	3.17
Bahia	3.40

These odds reflect Atletico MG’s home advantage and recent unbeaten streak at their ground. Despite being the underdogs, Bahia’s stronger league position and recent form suggest this will be a tightly contested match.

Considering the tip for under 2.5 goals and these balanced odds, it’s clear both teams have their strengths and vulnerabilities, making this match a fascinating one for bettors and fans alike.

Atletico MG Team Analysis

Atletico MG Recent Performance LDWWD

Atletico MG has shown mixed form in their latest series of matches. Their last five games resulted in 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, represented as LDWWD.
Their recent performance includes:

• A 0-0 draw against Internacional
• A 3-1 victory over Independiente del Valle in the Copa Sudamericana final stage
• A 1-0 win against Ceara
• A 1-1 draw with Independiente del Valle
• A narrow 1-0 defeat to Corinthians

In these fixtures, Atletico MG has managed to score an average of 1.00 goals per game and kept 2 clean sheets. This defensive solidity at home, combined with their recent unbeaten streak, highlights their resilience despite their mid-table league position. With a significant number of injuries and a key suspension, their upcoming match will test their squad depth and resolve.

Atletico MG Key Players

Atletico MG’s key players for this fixture include Rony, the team’s top scorer with 4 goals, and Hulk, a veteran forward known for his physical prowess and powerful shots. Dudu, who plays in an attacking midfield role, will also be crucial in creating goal-scoring opportunities.

Expected lineup for Atletico MG:

• Goalkeeper: Everson
• Right center back: Renzo Saravia
• Central back: Júnior Alonso
• Left center back: Iván Román
• Right midfielder: Gustavo Scarpa
• Right central midfielder: Alan Franco
• Left central midfielder: Igor Gomes
• Left midfielder: Guilherme Arana
• Right attacking midfielder: Dudu
• Left attacking midfielder: Rony
• Center forward: Hulk

Key individual battles to watch include Rony and Hulk against Bahia’s solid defensive lineup. Their ability to break through Bahia’s defense could be crucial for Atletico MG in this important Serie A encounter.

Atletico MG Suspensions & Injuries

Atletico MG faces several challenges with key players out due to injuries and suspensions. The defense will miss Vitor Hugo, who is suspended following a red card and will be out for one match. This absence could impact their defensive stability.

In terms of injuries, Caio Maia is out with a cruciate ligament injury but is expected to return mid-November 2025. Tomás Cuello and Junior Santos are out with a broken ankle and groin injury, respectively, both sidelined for the season. Additionally, Lyanco is dealing with an Achilles tendon injury and will also miss the rest of the season.

These absences mean that younger players might need to step up, and coach Diogo Meschine will have to adjust his strategy to maintain the team’s competitive edge.

Atletico MG Tactics and Formation

Atletico MG Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Hulk
• Midfield Duo: Alan Franco and Igor Gomes
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Utilizing wing-backs for width and overlapping runs.

Atletico MG’s tactical approach under coach Diogo Meschine has seen them opt for a 3-4-2-1 formation, which allows flexibility in both defense and attack. The key player upfront is Hulk, who can leverage his physical presence and finishing skills to lead the line effectively.

Midfielders Alan Franco and Igor Gomes play a crucial role in linking play between defense and attack and maintaining midfield solidity. Meanwhile, wing-backs such as Gustavo Scarpa and Guilherme Arana provide width and contribute to both defensive and offensive responsibilities.

The team’s ability to maintain a solid defensive structure, reflected in their two clean sheets in the last five games, will be critical against Bahia. Additionally, their strategy often emphasizes applying pressure and creating scoring opportunities during the 61-75 minute interval, aiming to capitalize on tiring defenses.

Bahia Team Analysis

Bahia Recent Performance LWWLW

Bahia’s recent form shows a mixed but promising pattern, with 3 wins and 2 losses over their last five matches, represented as LWWLW.

Their recent performance includes:

• A 2-1 win against Red Bull Bragantino
• A 2-0 loss to Sao Paulo
• A narrow 1-0 victory over Internacional
• A dominant 4-0 win against Gremio
• A 2-1 defeat to Vitoria

In these fixtures, Bahia has managed to score an average of 1.60 goals per game and kept 2 clean sheets. This attacking prowess is led by their top scorer Willian Jose, adding crucial goals to the team’s tally. However, their defense has been shaky during away matches, evident in their recent streak of four consecutive away losses. This inconsistency away from home could play a significant role in their upcoming match against Atletico MG.

Bahia Key Players

Bahia’s key players for this match include top scorer Willian Jose, who has netted 9 goals this season and remains their most potent attacking threat. Erick Pulga and Jean Lucas in midfield will also be crucial in supplying the forward line and maintaining possession.

Expected lineup for Bahia:

• Goalkeeper: Ronaldo
• Right back: Santiago Arias
• Right center back: David Duarte
• Left center back: Kanu
• Left back: Luciano Juba
• Right central midfielder: Nicolás Acevedo
• Central midfielder: Jean Lucas
• Left central midfielder: Rodrigo Nestor
• Right forward: Erick Pulga
• Center forward: Willian Jose
• Left forward: Ademir Santos

Key individual battles to watch include Willian Jose against Atletico MG’s weakened defense and the midfield duel featuring Jean Lucas and Igor Gomes. These matchups will likely define the flow and outcome of the game.

Bahia Suspensions & Injuries

Bahia faces several challenges with key absences due to injuries and suspensions ahead of their clash with Atletico MG. Santi Ramos Mingo, a crucial defender, is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards and will miss this match. His absence will likely impact Bahia’s defensive stability.

Injuries continue to plague the team, with Caio Alexandre and Gilberto out with thigh injuries, potentially sidelined until mid and late November, respectively. Mateo Sanabria is out for the season with a cruciate ligament injury. Additionally, Kayky and Gabriel Xavier are doubtful due to recent injuries, further limiting Bahia’s options.

These absences mean that key players like Willian Jose and Rodrigo Nestor will need to step up and lead by example to maintain the team’s competitive edge.

Bahia Tactics and Formation

Bahia Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Willian Jose
• Midfield Trio: Nicolás Acevedo, Jean Lucas, Rodrigo Nestor
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Quick transitions and leveraging pace on counter-attacks.

Under coach Rogério Ceni, Bahia adopts a 4-3-3 formation that emphasizes quick transitions and exploiting the pace of their forwards in counter-attacking scenarios. Willian Jose, their top scorer, serves as the focal point in attack, supported by a dynamic midfield trio of Nicolás Acevedo, Jean Lucas, and Rodrigo Nestor, who are adept at winning possession and distributing the ball quickly.

Bahia’s defense has shown resilience in recent matches, despite some struggles away from home, with two clean sheets recorded in their last five outings. Their tactical approach often includes strong attacking surges during the 61-75 minute interval, aiming to expose their opponent’s vulnerabilities as the game progresses.

Atletico MG vs Bahia Head-to-Head Statistics

The recent head-to-head statistics between Atletico MG and Bahia reflect a competitive rivalry. The last five encounters have been in Bahia’s favour, with the following results:

• Bahia – Atletico MG 2 – 1 on 13 July 2025 (Serie A)
• Bahia – Atletico MG 3 – 0 on 15 September 2024 (Serie A)
• Atletico MG – Bahia 1 – 1 on 2 June 2024 (Serie A)
• Bahia – Atletico MG 4 – 1 on 7 December 2023 (Serie A)
• Atletico MG – Bahia 1 – 0 on 13 August 2023 (Serie A)

Bahia has won three out of the last five matches, Atletico MG managed only one win and a draw between these teams. This history indicates that Bahia has had the upper hand, particularly in their home fixtures.

However, with Atletico MG’s current home unbeaten streak, this fixture promises to be a battle worth watching, potentially shifting the dynamics in their favour.

Odds accurate as of 11/03/2025 23:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.