Vasco da Gama vs. Vitoria Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 5 October 2025

On 5 October 2025, Vasco da Gama will take on Vitoria in a Serie A clash that could prove pivotal for both sides. This match, taking place at 20:00, pits Vasco da Gama, currently 12th in the standings with 30 points, against Vitoria, who are in 17th place with 25 points.

Vasco da Gama come into this match as favourites, particularly given their stronger home performances this season. Their recent form has been mixed with a record of D-D-W-W-L, but they boast a solid forward in Pablo Vegetti, who has netted 12 goals so far.

Vitoria, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency, managing W-L-L-L-W in their last five outings. Renato Kayzer, their top scorer with seven goals, will need to step up if they hope to upset the odds.

With Vasco da Gama performing better at home and Vitoria struggling in away matches, our match prediction tips Vasco da Gama to win. Expect an exciting clash as both teams vie for crucial points to climb up the table.

Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria Prediction & Betting Tip

Vasco da Gama at home against Vitória is tipped to favour the hosts in the 1X2 market. With Vasco generally performing stronger at home, backed by passionate supporters, and their recent form showing resilience in midfield battles, they are well positioned to secure all three points.

Why this prediction is good:

• Home Advantage: Vasco da Gama perform significantly better at home.
• Recent Midfield Resilience: Their ability to control the midfield in recent matches strengthens their overall gameplay.
• Vitória’s Away Struggles: Vitória have a tendency to falter in away fixtures, often conceding goals under pressure.

Given these factors, Vasco da Gama is expected to capitalize on their home advantage and secure a win.

Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria Odds

When evaluating the betting odds for the upcoming Serie A clash between Vasco da Gama and Vitoria, the bookmakers have placed Vasco as the clear favourites. Given their stronger home record and Vitoria’s struggles on the road, these odds make sense.

These odds reflect the likelihood of each potential outcome:

• Vasco da Gama is favoured to win due to their solid home performances and recent form.
• A draw remains a possibility, albeit less likely.
• Vitoria, with their inconsistent away record, is the underdog in this matchup.

Expect a competitive game, but with Vasco’s home advantage and recent midfield resilience, they are rightly positioned to come out on top.

Vasco da Gama Team Analysis

Vasco da Gama Recent Performance (D-D-W-W-L)

Vasco da Gama’s recent form has been a mixed bag, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five Serie A matches. Here’s a breakdown of these results for better clarity:

• Palmeiras 3 – 0 Vasco da Gama (1 Oct 2025): A tough away loss for Vasco.
• Vasco da Gama 2 – 0 Cruzeiro (27 Sep 2025): A clean sheet home win, showcasing their defensive resilience.
• Vasco da Gama 3 – 1 Bahia (24 Sep 2025): Another strong performance at home with a commanding win.
• Flamengo 1 – 1 Vasco da Gama (21 Sep 2025): A well-fought draw in a high-profile fixture.
• Vasco da Gama 2 – 2 Ceara (14 Sep 2025): An entertaining draw where both teams found the back of the net.

In recent games, Vasco da Gama have averaged 1.60 goals scored per match while managing one clean sheet. This indicates a consistent attacking presence, albeit with room for improvement in defense. Overall, they have scored in 73% of their matches this season, reflecting their offensive capabilities, especially at home.

Vasco da Gama Key Players

One of Vasco da Gama’s standout players this season has been Pablo Vegetti, their top scorer with 12 goals. His finishing ability will be critical in breaking down Vitoria’s defense. Another key figure is Philippe Coutinho, whose creativity in midfield can unlock opportunities for his teammates.

Expected lineup for Vasco da Gama:

• Goalkeeper: Leo Jardim
• Defenders: Paulo Henrique, Lucas Oliveira, Robert Renan, Jose Luis Rodriguez
• Midfielders: Hugo Moura, Cauan Barros, Philippe Coutinho, Rayan Vitor, Nuno Moreira
• Forward: Pablo Vegetti

One intriguing battle to watch will be the midfield showdown, where Coutinho’s vision and passing are set to clash with Vitoria’s central pair, Gabriel Baralhas and Ronald. Vasco’s attacking threat will heavily rely on the chemistry between their forwards and midfielders.

In summary, the orchestrators like Coutinho and the finishers like Vegetti will play pivotal roles in this fixture.

Vasco da Gama Suspensions & Injuries

Vasco da Gama have a few significant injury concerns heading into their match against Vitoria. Players such as Adson (broken leg), Matheus Franca (sprained ankle), and Carlos Cuesta (thigh injury) are all sidelined until late October. Additionally, key figures like Thiago Mendes and Lucas Piton are dealing with calf injuries and are expected to be out for about 1-2 weeks. Unfortunately, Jair is ruled out for the season due to a cruciate ligament injury.

These absences could impact Vasco’s fluidity and defensive stability. The absence of Jair, in particular, leaves a gap in central midfield, putting more pressure on players like Hugo Moura and Cauan Barros to step up. Despite these setbacks, the squad will need to rely on their depth and resilience to maintain their competitive edge.

Vasco da Gama Tactics and Formation

Vasco da Gama Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Pablo Vegetti (12 goals this season)
• Midfield Creators: Philippe Coutinho (Attacking Midfield), Nuno Moreira (Left Wing), Rayan Vitor (Right Wing)
• Defensive Backbone: Leo Jardim (Goalkeeper), Lucas Oliveira, Robert Renan
• Recent Defensive Performance: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Strong midfield control, resilience in battles, and leveraging home advantage.

Vasco da Gama deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation with a strong focus on midfield dominance. Philippe Coutinho’s vision and passing can unlock defenses, while Vegetti’s clinical finishing converts chances into goals. Defensively, they rely on the solidity of Lucas Oliveira and Robert Renan, while relying on Leo Jardim’s shot-stopping abilities. Expect them to exert pressure, especially in the second half, looking to outmaneuver Vitoria’s fragility during away matches.

Vitoria Team Analysis

Vitoria Recent Performance (W-L-L-L-W)

Vitoria’s recent form has been a rollercoaster, reflecting their struggles for consistency. Here’s a look at their last five matches:

• Vitoria 1 – 0 Ceara (2 Oct 2025): A hard-fought home win.
• Gremio 3 – 1 Vitoria (28 Sep 2025): Defeated convincingly on the road.
• Vitoria 0 – 1 Fluminense (20 Sep 2025): A narrow home loss.
• Fortaleza 2 – 0 Vitoria (13 Sep 2025): Another tough away defeat.
• Vitoria 1 – 0 Atletico MG (31 Aug 2025): Managed a crucial home win.

Their recent form translates to two wins and three losses, indicating inconsistency. Vitoria have averaged 0.60 goals per match in their last five outings and kept two clean sheets, showcasing some defensive resilience. However, their away form remains worrisome. To improve their standings and escape the relegation zone (17th with 25 points), they will need to find stability and consistency in both attack and defense.

Vitoria Key Players

Vitoria will rely heavily on Renato Kayzer, their top scorer with seven goals this season, to break down Vasco da Gama’s defense. His ability to find the back of the net could be crucial in a game where away chances might be limited. Another player to watch is Aitor Cantalapiedra, who operates in midfield and can create scoring opportunities.

Expected lineup for Vitoria:

• Goalkeeper: Lucas Arcanjo
• Defenders: Lucas Halter, Camutanga, Ze Marcos
• Midfielders: Raul Caceres, Gabriel Baralhas, Ronald, Aitor Cantalapiedra, Maykon Jesus
• Forwards: Erick, Renato Kayzer

Key battles to watch will be between Kayzer and Vasco’s defenders, Lucas Oliveira and Robert Renan. Additionally, the midfield duel featuring Ronald and Gabriel Baralhas against Philippe Coutinho and Hugo Moura could be decisive.

Vitoria’s success will depend on their ability to remain resilient in defense and capitalize on any counter-attacks.

Vitoria Suspensions & Injuries

Vitoria are dealing with a few key absences that might impact their performance against Vasco da Gama. Kauan and Jamerson are both out until late October and early November, respectively, due to broken ankles. Ruben Ramos Ismael is recovering from knee surgery and is expected to return mid-October.

On the suspension front, Ramon and Renzo López are unavailable due to yellow card bans. These absences mean that the team will need to adjust their defense and midfield strategies.

The lack of depth in certain positions could affect Vitoria’s ability to maintain consistency and defensive stability, making it an even tougher challenge to secure a positive result away from home.

Vitoria Tactics and Formation

Vitoria Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Renato Kayzer (7 goals this season)
• Midfield Playmakers: Aitor Cantalapiedra (Left Central Midfielder), Gabriel Baralhas (Right Central Midfielder), Raul Caceres (Right Midfielder)
• Defensive Core: Lucas Halter, Camutanga, Ze Marcos
• Recent Defensive Effort: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on defensive solidity and swift counter-attacks

Vitoria usually set up in a 3-4-3 formation designed to provide defensive stability while allowing quick transitions into attack. Their primary strategy revolves around a solid backline and midfield that can launch counter-attacks, utilising the pace and finishing of Renato Kayzer. Key midfielders like Aitor Cantalapiedra and Gabriel Baralhas will be crucial in breaking up play and distributing the ball forward. Expect them to focus on compact defending and hitting Vasco on the break, especially with the absences of key players forcing a more cautious approach.

Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the last five encounters between Vasco da Gama and Vitoria gives us a glimpse into their competitive history:

• Vitoria 2 – 1 Vasco da Gama (10 May 2025, Serie A): Vitoria secured a narrow win at home.
• Vitoria 0 – 1 Vasco da Gama (1 Sep 2024, Serie A): Vasco edged out a victory in a tightly contested game.
• Vasco da Gama 2 – 1 Vitoria (12 May 2024, Serie A): A home win for Vasco with a close margin.
• Vasco da Gama 0 – 3 Vitoria (11 Nov 2021, Serie B): A convincing away win for Vitoria.
• Vitoria 0 – 1 Vasco da Gama (7 Aug 2021, Serie B): Vasco clinched an away win.

In these past meetings, Vasco has had the upper hand with three wins out of five. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to win away from home, adding an intriguing layer to their head-to-head record. This history highlights Vasco’s slight dominance, especially in more recent matches.

Odds accurate as of 03/10/2025 20:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.