Atletico MG vs. Gremio Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 17 August 2025

As the Serie A rolls into its 20th round, Atletico MG hosts Gremio in a fixture that promises action. Taking place on the evening of 17th August 2025 at 20:00, this match sees Atlético MG gunning for a top-half finish, currently sitting 10th with 24 points, while Gremio looks to climb out of danger from the 15th spot with 20 points.

Having won their Copa Sudamericana match against Godoy Cruz on August 14, Atlético MG comes in as favourites, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.72 for a home win. Their recent form is impressive, notably eliminating Flamengo in the Copa do Brasil and showcasing resilience despite injuries to key players such as Caio Maia and Cadu. Gremio, on the other hand, has struggled recently, losing 3 of their last 5 games.

Mano Menezes’ side will miss top scorer Martin Braithwaite through suspension following his yellow card accumulation. Historically, matches between these two teams have been high-scoring affairs, with more than 2.5 goals in 86% of their last matchups.

Given Atletico MG’s home strength and Gremio’s away woes, a recommended bet is for Atletico MG to win.

Atletico MG vs Gremio Prediction & Betting tip

Our recommended betting tip for this match is:

Atletico MG vs Gremio Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Atletico MG to win	1.72

• Atletico MG has a good home record, having scored in 71% of their home matches this season.
• Gremio has struggled away from home, and they will be without their top scorer Martin Braithwaite due to suspension.
• Historical data suggests high-scoring games between these teams, with more than 2.5 goals in 86% of their past encounters.

Back Atletico MG to win this fixture as they look to maintain their strong form at home against a Gremio squad that has had trouble finding consistency on the road.

Atletico MG vs Gremio Odds

Looking at the bookmaker odds, Atletico MG comes into this match as the favourite given their strong home form and current standings in Serie A. Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds for this upcoming clash:

Atletico MG vs Gremio Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Atletico MG	1.72
Draw	3.55
Gremio	4.83

These odds reflect Atletico MG’s consistent performance at home, where they have scored in 71% of their matches. Gremio, on the other hand, face an uphill battle, especially without suspended top scorer Martin Braithwaite and struggling to find the net in recent games. Betting on Atletico MG to win seems a viable option considering these aspects. Their home advantage and Gremio’s form make it a convincing bet.

Atletico MG Team Analysis

Atletico MG Recent Performance

Atletico MG have been in solid form recently, showcasing their quality across various competitions. Over their last five matches, they’ve secured three wins and two draws. Here’s a brief overview:

• Atletico MG 2 – 1 Godoy Cruz (Copa Sudamericana, 2025-08-14)
• Vasco da Gama 1 – 1 Atletico MG (Serie A, 2025-08-10)
• Atletico MG 0 – 1 Flamengo (Penalty shoot-out: 4 – 3) (Cup, 2025-08-06)
• Atletico MG 2 – 1 Red Bull Bragantino (Serie A, 2025-08-03)
• Flamengo 0 – 1 Atletico MG (Cup, 2025-08-01)

In their last five games, Atletico MG have averaged 2.00 goals per game while keeping one clean sheet. Key victories include their elimination of Flamengo in the Copa do Brasil and their narrow win against Godoy Cruz in the Copa Sudamericana.

Despite injuries to crucial players such as Caio Maia and Cadu, they’ve maintained offensive efficiency, largely thanks to their top scorer Hulk, who has netted 4 goals this season. Their home strength remains apparent, having scored in 71% of home matches this season.

Atletico MG Key Players

Atletico MG boasts several standout performers, key among them being their top scorer Hulk, who has netted 4 goals this season. His attacking prowess will be crucial in breaking down Gremio’s defence, especially with Gremio’s tendency to concede goals late in matches.

Gustavo Scarpa, who plays in central midfield, is another influential figure, often driving forward runs and creating opportunities. Gabriel Menino and Alan Franco will anchor the midfield, providing stability and connecting play between the lines.

The defence, marshalled by Junior Alonso, has been solid, contributing to their home goal-scoring record where they have managed to score in 71% of their home games. In goal, Everson’s reliability will also be a crucial factor.

Expected lineup for Atletico MG:

• Goalkeeper: Everson
• Defenders: Natanael, Lyanco, Junior Alonso, Guilherme Arana
• Midfielders: Alan Franco, Gabriel Menino, Gustavo Scarpa
• Attackers: Hulk, Rony, Tomás Cuello

This balanced lineup reflects their capabilities and offers a blend of defensive solidity and attacking flair.

Atletico MG Suspensions & Injuries

Atletico MG faces several absentees due to injuries and suspensions, which may impact their lineup and performance. Key defensive midfielder Caio Maia is out with a cruciate ligament injury and isn’t expected back until early October 2025. Cadu and Fausto Vera are also sidelined due to knee and thigh injuries, respectively, although both could return by late August.

Additional concerns come from Patrick Silva, who is dealing with a back injury and may be out for 1-2 more weeks. Moreover, defender Dudu is suspended for three matches. These absences challenge the squad’s depth but also provide opportunities for other players to step up and fill these gaps.

Despite these setbacks, Atletico MG has demonstrated resilience in recent matches, thanks to their solid team performance and strategic rotations by coach Cuca.

Atletico MG Tactics and Formation

Atletico MG Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Hulk
• Midfield Trio: Alan Franco, Gabriel Menino, Gustavo Scarpa
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Effective attacking, averaging 2.00 goals per game in the last five matches.

Atletico MG’s approach revolves around a dynamic 4-3-3 formation. Up front, Hulk will spearhead the attack, using his strength and finishing skills to trouble Gremio’s defence. The midfield trio of Alan Franco, Gabriel Menino, and Gustavo Scarpa balances creativity and defensive duties, ensuring smooth transitions and ball retention.

Defensively, Atletico MG is robust, thanks to the leadership of Junior Alonso and goalkeeper Everson’s reliability. Despite some injury woes, they’ve managed to maintain efficiency, leveraging strong home performances, having scored in 71% of their home matches this season. The focus will be on a controlled game, with emphasis on exploiting Gremio’s weaknesses, particularly during the 76-90 minute interval, where Gremio tends to concede most goals.

Gremio Team Analysis

Gremio Recent Performance

Gremio has had a rough patch recently with three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five outings. Here’s a brief look at their latest results:

• Gremio 0 – 1 Sport Recife (Serie A, 2025-08-10)
• Fluminense 1 – 0 Gremio (Serie A, 2025-08-03)
• Gremio 2 – 1 Fortaleza (Serie A, 2025-07-29)
• Palmeiras 1 – 0 Gremio (Serie A, 2025-07-27)
• Gremio 1 – 1 Alianza Lima (Copa Sudamericana, 2025-07-24)

In these matches, Gremio has scored an average of 0.60 goals per game and failed to keep a single clean sheet. Their struggles in front of goal and at the back have been evident, making their fixtures particularly challenging. Coach Mano Menezes will need to address these issues promptly, especially with key player Martin Braithwaite suspended for the upcoming clash against Atletico MG. These factors, combined with their shaky away form, will significantly influence their performance in the upcoming match.

Gremio Key Players

Gremio will be looking to their squad’s depth to step up in the absence of their top scorer Martin Braithwaite, who is serving a suspension. Carlos Vinícius is expected to lead the line, and his goal-scoring abilities will be crucial for Gremio to pose a threat to Atletico MG’s defence. Midfielder Edenilson will provide stability in the central areas, working alongside Dodi to break up play and initiate attacks.

Defensively, Fabian Balbuena and Wagner Leonardo will need to be at their best to handle the firepower of Hulk and Rony. The combination of Marlon and Camilo in the full-back positions will also be key in countering the wing threat posed by Atletico MG.

Expected lineup for Gremio:

• Goalkeeper: Tiago Volpi
• Defenders: Camilo, Wagner Leonardo, Fabian Balbuena, Marlon
• Midfielders: Edenilson, Dodi, Riquelme Freitas, Alysson Edward, Cristian Olivera
• Forward: Carlos Vinícius

With these key players, Gremio will aim to disrupt Atletico MG’s rhythm and find a way to secure points despite their recent struggles.

Gremio Suspensions & Injuries

Gremio comes into this match with significant absences due to both injuries and suspensions, which could heavily influence their performance. The most notable missing player is their top scorer, Martin Braithwaite, who is suspended for one match due to an accumulation of yellow cards. This is a significant blow given his tally of 6 goals this season.

Injuries also plague the squad, with Rodrigo Ely out until mid-December due to a cruciate ligament injury. Others like Joao Pedro, Miguel Monsalve, and Gustavo Martins are expected to return by late August, but they’ll miss this crucial fixture. Additionally, André Henrique and Joao Lucas are sidelined with muscle injuries, each expected to be out for another 1-2 weeks.

These setbacks mean that coach Mano Menezes will have to rely on his squad’s depth and tactical adjustments to navigate this challenging encounter against Atletico MG.

Gremio Tactics and Formation

Gremio Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Carlos Vinícius
• Midfield Dynamics: Edenilson and Dodi as the defensive midfielders, with Riquelme Freitas in a more advanced role
• Defensive Setup: Fabian Balbuena and Wagner Leonardo as the central defensive partnership
• Notable Strategy: Reliance on wing play and counter-attacks, especially through the flanks with Alysson Edward and Cristian Olivera

Coach Mano Menezes typically employs a 4-2-3-1 formation that balances defensive solidity with quick transitions. With Martin Braithwaite suspended, Carlos Vinícius will be leading the line, supported by the playmaking abilities of Riquelme Freitas. The flanks are a significant avenue for attacks, with Alysson Edward and Cristian Olivera stretching the play and delivering crosses into the box.

Defensively, the focus will be on maintaining structure and resilience, especially as Gremio has struggled with conceding goals, particularly in the 76-90 minute interval. The backline’s coordination, coupled with Tiago Volpi’s goalkeeping, will be crucial in mitigating Atletico MG’s attacking threats.

Atletico MG vs Gremio Head-to-Head Statistics

Looking at their recent head-to-head encounters, Atletico MG and Gremio have had five thrilling matches in the past two years:

• Gremio 2 – 1 Atletico MG (Serie A, 2025-03-29)
• Atletico MG 2 – 1 Gremio (Serie A, 2024-10-09)
• Gremio 2 – 3 Atletico MG (Serie A, 2024-09-01)
• Atletico MG 3 – 0 Gremio (Serie A, 2023-11-26)
• Gremio 1 – 0 Atletico MG (Serie A, 2023-07-23)

In these fixtures, Atletico MG has the upper hand with three wins, while Gremio grabbed two victories. Most matchups have been high-scoring, with more than 2.5 goals in 86% of these games.

Given this history, fans can expect another intense and potentially high-scoring game when they clash again on 17 August 2025. The interesting trend here is that home advantage has played a crucial role, which bodes well for Atletico MG in this upcoming encounter. Utilizing their historical edge and strong home form could be decisive in securing another victory against Gremio.

Odds accurate as of 15/08/2025 20:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.