Palmeiras vs Atletico MG Prediction & Betting Tips

Copa Libertadores, quarterfinal match between two Brazilian sides, Palmeiras is welcoming Atletico MG. This is the second leg while in the first one week ago on Atletico's stadium, the score was tied, 2:2. Now at home Palmeiras is pretty decent favourite and probably with valid reason. Firstly, the hosts are two consecutive times the defending champs in this competition. Also in this season Palmeiras is playing fantastic football and together with last season runner-up, Flamengo is again the top favourite to lift the trophy. Beside great results on international level, Palmeiras is doing well also in Brazilian Serie A where they're the league leader after 21 rounds. Atletico MG is there only on the 7th position and with even 15 pts less than Palmeiras, plus the guests are in series of three straight losses in Serie A. So all this mentioned is making Palmeiras as justified favourite. But for almost same odds as home win, I like just a little bit more this Totals option, Under 2.5 and this is why. Firstly, there is something strange in this matchup. Namely 2:2 draw in the first leg was the 5th straight draw between these two clubs and all in the previous eleven months. Beside mutual meetings in the Serie A that also finished in draw, these two sides met also in the previous Copa Libertadores campaign. Back then it was in the semi-finals and both matches again finished tied, 0:0 here on Palmeiras' ground and then 1:1 in away match. Thanks to that away goal, Palmeiras has qualified for the finals where they eventually defeated Flamengo. Obviously, Palmeiras is the team in better momentum right now but all those draw matches in the mutual meetings makes me wonder if the home win really is the right choice. So I have opted for Under as more confident choice. Have in mind the first leg result wasn't too much realistic. We saw back then not one but two injury times goals. Firstly the veteran Hulk brought the advantage to Atletico in the first half injury time while Palmeiras had their own celebration in the injury time at the end of the game. Furthermore, we saw there one own goal as well one penalty goal. So, realistically, that match didn't look like high scoring to me, those 2:2 were more like 1:1. For end, another big reason I like Under in the reverse fixture is due to the fact that in this campaign the away goal rule doesn't apply any more, meaning Atletico doesn't need to play offensively after allowing two goals at home. Basically initial 0:0 keeps both teams in the race for the Semi-finals and I doubt any of these opponents will play too risky at the beginning.