Atletico MG vs. Santos FC Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 14 September 2025

In this crucial Serie A showdown, Atletico MG host Santos FC on 14 September 2025. Both teams find themselves in the lower half of the table, with Atletico MG in 14th position on 24 points and Santos just behind in 16th, sitting on 22 points. Atletico MG are currently the bookmaker favourites with odds of 1.83, thanks to their marginally better season so far. However, they come into this game after a rough patch, notching only one win in their last five matches. Santos have been equally inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five games. With both teams struggling to find form and exhibiting defensive vulnerabilities, our tip leans towards a draw. Previous encounters between these teams have also shown a pattern of tight contests, making a draw a likely outcome. Keep an eye on players like Hulk for Atletico MG and Alvaro Barreal for Santos, both pivotal figures for their respective sides. Given the stakes—not just for points but also for confidence—this match carries significant implications as the season progresses.

Atletico MG vs Santos FC Prediction & Betting Tip

Given the inconsistencies and defensive frailties of both teams, our recommendation for this match is a Draw. Here’s why:

1. Inconsistent Form: Both teams have struggled for consistency, with Atletico MG losing 4 of their last 5 matches and Santos FC managing only 2 wins and 1 draw in the same period.
2. Head-to-Head Record: The last 5 encounters between Atletico MG and Santos FC have resulted in 2 draws, indicating a pattern of tightly contested matches.
3. Defensive Vulnerabilities: Atletico MG and Santos FC have conceded 8 and 10 goals, respectively, in their last 5 games, highlighting defensive issues that could lead to a balanced and low-scoring draw.

Taking these factors into account, a draw in this matchup not only seems logical but is also supported by decent odds of 3.41.

Atletico MG vs Santos FC Odds

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for the upcoming Atletico MG vs Santos FC fixture. Atletico MG are coming into this match as the favourites according to the bookmakers:

Given that Atletico MG have struggled recently, securing only one win in their last five matches, and Santos FC have also had inconsistent results with two wins and a draw, the odds reflect the precarious nature of this match. The draw, priced at 3.41, is particularly appealing considering the recent head-to-head history between these teams, which includes two draws in their last five meetings. With both defenses showing vulnerabilities, it’s clear why the draw offers such interesting value.

Atletico MG Team Analysis

Recent Performance:

Atletico MG’s recent form has been far from impressive, with just one win and four losses in their last five matches. This run includes a 2-0 defeat to Cruzeiro in the Cup and another 2-0 loss to Sao Paulo in the league. Their only win came in the Copa Sudamericana against Godoy Cruz, ending in a 1-0 victory.

• Average Goals Scored: In the last five games, Atletico MG have struggled offensively, averaging just 0.20 goals per match.
• Clean Sheets: Defensively, they’ve managed only one clean sheet in the same period.

These numbers indicate that both ends of the pitch are areas of concern for Jorge Sampaoli’s side. Their lack of goals and frequent concession expose vulnerabilities that need addressing to climb from their current 14th position.

Atletico MG Key Players

Atletico MG heavily rely on their star forward Hulk, who is their top scorer this season with 4 goals. His experience and attacking prowess will be crucial for breaking down the Santos defense. Another key player to keep an eye on is Gustavo Scarpa, orchestrating from the midfield with his vision and passing ability.

Defensively, Júnior Alonso and Lyanco will need to step up to bolster a backline that has only managed one clean sheet in the last five games. Their performance will be vital in keeping Santos’ offense at bay.

Expected lineup for Atletico MG:

• Goalkeeper: Everson
• Defenders: Natanael, Lyanco, Júnior Alonso, Guilherme Arana
• Midfielders: Gustavo Scarpa, Fausto Vera, Alexsander
• Forwards: Rony, Hulk, Tomás Cuello

The duel between Hulk and Santos’ defenders could be pivotal, as his ability to find the net might tip the scales in Atletico MG’s favor.

Atletico MG Suspensions & Injuries

Atletico MG are dealing with a slew of injuries which could affect their performance against Santos FC. Important players like Caio Maia, who is out with a cruciate ligament injury until early October, and Cadu, recovering from knee surgery, have left gaps in the squad.

Additionally, back injury-plagued Patrick Silva might return in 1-2 weeks, while Renzo Saravia, sidelined with a muscle strain, is also expected back in the same timeframe. Their absences could impact the team’s defensive stability and overall depth.

The lack of suspensions does provide some relief, but Jorge Sampaoli will have to make do with a slightly diminished squad, making their task even tougher in securing a much-needed victory.

Atletico MG Tactics and Formation

Atletico MG’s tactics under Jorge Sampaoli have generally leaned towards a balanced approach, aiming for defensive solidity while occasionally pushing forward in attack.

Atletico MG Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Hulk
• Midfield Trio: Gustavo Scarpa, Fausto Vera, Alexsander
• Defensive Strength: Only one clean sheet in the last five games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
• Notable Strategy: Atletico MG tend to score most of their goals in the final stages of the match, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

They will likely set up with Everson in goal, a back four of Natanael, Lyanco, Júnior Alonso, and Guilherme Arana. In the midfield, Gustavo Scarpa, Fausto Vera, and Alexsander are expected to feature prominently, while Rony, Hulk, and Tomás Cuello will lead the attack.

This formation allows Atletico MG to be versatile, adapting midgame based on the match’s flow. Key to their success will be converting moments of pressure into goals, particularly late in the game.

Santos FC Team Analysis

Recent Performance:

Santos FC have experienced a mixed bag of results in their recent outings, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. Their victories came against Cruzeiro (2-1) and Juventude (3-1), showcasing their capacity to find the net efficiently.

• Average Goals Scored: Over their last five games, Santos FC have averaged 1.00 goals per match, indicating a decent attacking output.
• Clean Sheets: Defensively, they have managed to keep only one clean sheet in the same period.

While their form is slightly better compared to Atletico MG, the inconsistencies and the number of goals conceded (10 in 5 matches) point to defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited.

Santos FC Key Players

Santos FC rely heavily on their top scorer, Alvaro Barreal, who has netted 5 goals this season. His presence upfront will be crucial for breaking down Atletico MG’s defense. Another pivotal figure is Neymar Jr., whose playmaking skills and experience can tip the balance in tight situations.

Defensively, keeper Gabriel Brazão will need to be at his best to thwart Atletico MG’s attacks, particularly from their main forward, Hulk.

Expected lineup for Santos FC:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel Brazão
• Defenders: Mayke, Adonis Frias, Luan Peres, Gonzalo Escobar
• Midfielders: Tomas Rincon, Ze Rafael, Gustavo Caballero, Neymar Jr
• Forwards: Guilherme Augusto, Tiquinho Soares

A key individual battle will be between Santos’ defenders and Hulk, whose ability to score could be decisive in this match.

Santos FC Suspensions & Injuries

Santos FC are dealing with a few notable absences heading into their match against Atletico MG. Midfielder Benjamin Rollheiser is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. His absence will be a blow to their midfield creativity.

On the injury front, key players like Willian Arao, who is recovering from a calf injury and expected back in about a week, and Joao Basso, who has a doubtful return due to a thigh injury, are also sidelined. Their absences could impact Santos FC’s defensive and midfield stability.

These absences mean that coach Juan Pablo Vojvoda will have to adjust his tactics and could field a slightly weakened lineup, which might influence their chances against Atletico MG.

Santos FC Tactics and Formation

Santos FC, under the guidance of coach Juan Pablo Vojvoda, typically adopt a flexible approach on the pitch, balancing defensive solidity with attacking flair.

Santos FC Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Alvaro Barreal
• Midfield Trio: Gustavo Caballero, Neymar Jr, Guilherme Augusto
• Defensive Strength: Only one clean sheet in the last five games, showing room for improvement.
• Notable Strategy: Santos FC often finds success in the latter stages of the match, particularly between the 76th and 90th minute, where they have scored the bulk of their goals this season.

Expected lineup for Santos FC:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel Brazão
• Defenders: Mayke, Adonis Frias, Luan Peres, Gonzalo Escobar
• Midfielders: Tomas Rincon, Ze Rafael, Gustavo Caballero, Neymar Jr
• Forwards: Guilherme Augusto, Tiquinho Soares

The duel between Alvaro Barreal and Atletico MG’s defense will be one to watch. His ability to change the game in moments could be crucial for Santos in this encounter.

Atletico MG vs Santos FC Head-to-Head Statistics

When these two teams meet, it often results in closely contested matches. In their last five head-to-head encounters:

• 17 April 2025: Santos FC 2-0 Atletico MG (Serie A)
• 27 August 2023: Atletico MG 2-0 Santos FC (Serie A)
• 23 April 2023: Santos FC 0-0 Atletico MG (Serie A)
• 6 October 2022: Santos FC 1-2 Atletico MG (Serie A)
• 11 June 2022: Atletico MG 1-1 Santos FC (Serie A)

Both sides have managed a win each in their recent five clashes, with two draws in between. This suggests a balanced rivalry where predicting a clear winner is challenging. Their most recent encounter saw Santos FC emerge victorious with a 2-0 win back in April, while Atletico MG claimed a 2-0 win in August of the previous year. Given such a split history, it’s essential to consider their current form and vulnerabilities while making predictions.

Odds accurate as of {12.09.2025 20:04}, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.