Internacional vs. Gremio Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 21 September 2025

The highly anticipated Gre-Nal derby between Internacional and Gremio is set to light up the 24th round of Serie A on 21 September 2025 at 21:30. Internacional, currently 12th with 27 points, host their arch-rivals Gremio, who sit two places below them in 14th with 25 points.
Despite a rough recent patch, including a 4-1 drubbing by Palmeiras, Internacional’s management backs coach Roger Machado ahead of this crucial encounter. The home side, struggling with defensive lapses and injuries, will rely on top scorer Alan Patrick and the returning Rafael Borré to make an impact.
Gremio, missing key players Walter Kannemann and Martin Braithwaite, come off a disappointing 1-0 loss to Mirassol. However, they hope the debut of midfielder Willian can give them a spark. Both teams have seen their fair share of struggles, making this derby a potential turning point for both.
Given both teams’ recent scoring woes and a history of low-scoring encounters, the recommended bet is under 2.5 goals. Buckle up for an intense, potentially low-scoring battle that carries significant weight for the remainder of the season.

Internacional vs Gremio Prediction & Betting Tip

Best Bet Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals
Reasoning:

1. Scoring Struggles: Internacional averages just 1 goal per match in their last five games, while Gremio’s average is even lower at 0.80. Both teams have struggled offensively of late.
2. Injury Impact: Gremio’s top scorer, Martin Braithwaite, is out for the season. His absence significantly diminishes Gremio’s attacking options.
3. Head-to-Head History: The last five encounters between these teams have been predominantly low-scoring, supporting a bet on under 2.5 goals.
   This derby match is known for its intensity and tight defenses, making a low-scoring outcome plausible.

Internacional vs Gremio Odds

The odds for the upcoming Gre-Nal derby clearly favor Internacional, priced at 1.81 by the bookmakers. This is not entirely surprising, given Internacional’s slightly higher position in the table and Gremio’s injury woes, notably the absence of top scorer Martin Braithwaite.
A draw is offered at 3.37, reflecting the historical tendency for tight matches between these rivals. Meanwhile, a Gremio win is priced at 4.51, indicating lower expectations for an away victory due to their recent form and key absentees.
Both teams are close in the standings, sitting 12th and 14th, adding even more significance to this clash as both clubs look to stabilize their campaigns.

Internacional Team Analysis

Internacional Recent Performance

Internacional has had a challenging run lately, with their last five matches yielding just one win and four losses (LLLWL). Their most recent game ended in a heavy 4-1 defeat to Palmeiras, highlighting their struggle both offensively and defensively. In these last five encounters, Internacional managed to score an average of 1 goal per match but failed to secure any clean sheets.
Defensive lapses have been a recurring issue, as illustrated by their average concession of 1.4 goals per game over the season. The gap between their goals scored and conceded underscores their inconsistent form.
The pressure is on much-criticized coach Roger Machado to turn things around in this crucial derby, especially with their league position hovering dangerously near the relegation zone.

Internacional Key Players

For Internacional, the spotlight is on their top scorer, Alan Patrick, who has netted 5 goals this season. He’s expected to be a crucial figure in breaking down Gremio’s defense. Additionally, with the return of left-back Alexandro Bernabei and striker Rafael Borré, who may replace Ricardo Mathias in the starting lineup, an added layer of attacking threat could emerge.
In this crucial Gre-Nal derby, individual battles will be decisive, particularly Alan Patrick facing Gremio’s seasoned defenders like Erick Noriega and Wagner Leonardo.
Expected lineup for Internacional:

• Goalkeeper: Sergio Rochet
• Defenders: Braian Aguirre, Vitao, Juninho, Victor Gabriel
• Midfielders: Thiago Maia, Alan Rodriguez, Vitinho, Alan Patrick, Johan Carbonero
• Forwards: Ricardo Mathias
  Keeping an eye on these key players and their performances will be crucial for Internacional to secure a much-needed win.

Internacional Suspensions & Injuries

Internacional faces several injury concerns heading into this crucial Gre-Nal derby. Key absentees include:

• Bruno Gomes (Cruciate ligament injury – Potential return early October 2025)
• Lucca Drummond (Knee surgery – Potential return early October 2025)
• Ivan (Meniscus injury – Potential return late September 2025)
• Ronaldo (Knee injury – Potential return late September 2025)
  These injuries significantly impact Internacional’s squad depth, particularly in the defensive and midfield positions. Coach Roger Machado will have to make some tactical adjustments to compensate for these absences.
  However, the return of Alexandro Bernabei and Rafael Borré should give the team a slight boost in both defensive solidity and attacking options. The fitness of these players could be crucial in this high-stakes fixture.

Internacional Tactics and Formation

Internacional’s tactical approach under coach Roger Machado has seen a number of variations, but they are expected to adopt a 4-3-3 formation for the upcoming Gre-Nal derby. Here’s a breakdown:
Internacional Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Rafael Borré, who is expected to return from injury and add firepower to the attack
• Midfield Trio: Alan Patrick, Alan Rodriguez, Thiago Maia
• Defensive Strength: Despite not keeping a clean sheet in their last five games, the return of key players like Alexandro Bernabei could bolster their backline
• Notable Strategy: Internacional will likely look to exploit Gremio’s weakened defense, especially with Gremio missing key players like Walter Kannemann
  This formation aims to provide both defensive stability and attacking versatility, key for a team looking to turn around a struggling season with an important derby win.

Gremio Team Analysis

Gremio Recent Performance

Gremio’s recent form has been a mixed bag, with their last five matches producing one win, two draws, and two losses (LWDDL). Their most recent game saw a 1-0 defeat against Mirassol, highlighting their struggles in finding consistency.
In terms of goal-scoring, Gremio has averaged 0.80 goals per match in their last five outings, while their defense has managed just one clean sheet during this period. These numbers underscore their offensive and defensive inefficiencies, which will need addressing if they aim to climb the league standings.
The absence of key players, notably top scorer Martin Braithwaite, due to injury, has significantly affected their attacking prowess. Coach Mano Menezes will have to strategize effectively to navigate these challenges in the crucial Gre-Nal derby.

Gremio Key Players

Gremio will be heavily reliant on midfielder Arthur and defensive stalwart Erick Noriega to lead by example in the absence of key players, notably Martin Braithwaite, who has been sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury. Arthur’s dynamic midfield presence will be essential in controlling the game’s tempo and breaking up Internacional’s play.
With suspended Walter Kannemann out, the defense will lean on Noriega and Wagner Leonardo to keep things tight at the back. New addition, Willian, is expected to debut, potentially adding a fresh spark in midfield.
Expected lineup for Gremio:

• Goalkeeper: Tiago Volpi
• Defenders: Joao Pedro, Erick Noriega, Wagner Leonardo, Marlon
• Midfielders: Arthur, Gustavo Cuellar, Dodi
• Forwards: Alysson Edward, Cristian Olivera, Andre Henrique
  Individual battles, especially in midfield, will be crucial in dictating the flow of this critical match.

Gremio Suspensions & Injuries

Gremio faces significant challenges with multiple injuries and suspensions that could impact their performance in the Gre-Nal derby:

• Walter Kannemann (suspended due to yellow cards, banned for 1 match)
• Martin Braithwaite (Achilles tendon injury – out for the season)
• Rodrigo Ely (cruciate ligament injury – potential return mid-December 2025)
• Miguel Monsalve (dislocated shoulder – potential return early October 2025)
• Joao Lucas (muscle injury – potential return 1-2 weeks)
• Mathías Villasanti (cruciate ligament injury – out for the season)
• Camilo (muscle injury – potential return 1-2 weeks)
• Fabian Balbuena (broken ankle – potential return early December 2025)
• Riquelme Freitas (thigh injury – potential return late September 2025)
• Marcos Rocha (muscle injury – potential return 1-2 weeks)
• Carlos Vinícius (muscle injury – potential return 1-2 weeks)
  These absences, especially of key players like Braithwaite and Kannemann, will force Coach Mano Menezes to rethink his strategy and rely on squad depth. Potential debuts and tactical switches will be crucial in adapting to these setbacks.

Gremio Tactics and Formation

Gremio’s tactical setup under Mano Menezes largely revolves around flexibility and solidity at the back, but injuries and suspensions will force some adjustments for this Gre-Nal derby. They are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation. Here’s a detailed breakdown:
Gremio Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Andre Henrique, who will have to step up in the absence of Martin Braithwaite
• Midfield Trio: Arthur, Gustavo Cuellar, Dodi
• Defensive Strength: Despite only one clean sheet in their last five games, defenders like Noriega and debutant Wagner Leonardo will be pivotal
• Notable Strategy: Exploit set-pieces and counter-attacks, especially with the expected debut of Willian to add creativity in midfield
  This structure aims to reinforce the defense while maintaining a balanced attack, vital for navigating the multiple key absences they face.

Internacional vs Gremio Head-to-Head Statistics

The last five meetings between Internacional and Gremio have been tightly contested, with few goals scored.
Here’s a look at their recent head-to-head results:

• 2025-04-20: Gremio 1 – 1 Internacional (Serie A)
• 2025-03-16: Internacional 1 – 1 Gremio (Gaucho Playoff)
• 2025-03-08: Gremio 0 – 2 Internacional (Gaucho Playoff)
• 2025-02-09: Gremio 1 – 1 Internacional (Gaucho)
• 2024-10-19: Internacional 1 – 0 Gremio (Serie A)
  The results indicate a tendency towards low-scoring encounters, which supports the bet of under 2.5 goals.
  Internacional holds a slight edge with one win in these matches, while the remaining four ended in draws. Given both teams’ current form and challenges, this encounter promises to be another closely fought affair.

Odds accurate as of 19/09/2025 21:33 and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.