Toulouse vs Auxerre Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 1 February

Toulouse will host Auxerre at Stadium Municipal on Sunday, 1 February, in what promises to be an intriguing Ligue 1 encounter. This match is crucial for both sides as they seek to secure vital points in their respective campaigns. Toulouse, playing at home, will be eager to capitalise on familiar surroundings to gain an edge over Auxerre. Meanwhile, Auxerre will aim to upset the hosts and climb the league table.

The significance of this fixture cannot be overstated, as both Toulouse and Auxerre are keen to improve their positions in Ligue 1. With home advantage, Toulouse may be considered slight favourites, but Auxerre’s determination to perform well away from home adds an exciting dimension to this contest. Fans and punters alike will be eager to see how these two teams match up on the day.

Toulouse vs Auxerre Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Toulouse -0.75 (Asian Handicap)	2.03

Based on the match tips and the overall profile of both teams, our recommended betting tip is Toulouse -0.75. Given that Auxerre are a low-event team and Toulouse tend to play controlled matches, this tip aligns well with the expected match dynamics.

• Auxerre have not won in their last four consecutive matches in this competition, indicating a likely struggle against Toulouse.
• Both teams have a low goal-scoring tendency, supporting a controlled win for Toulouse, possibly a 1-0 or 2-0 result.
• Toulouse’s more disciplined play and home advantage further bolster the likelihood of them covering the -0.75 handicap.

Betting Odds

Toulouse enter this Ligue 1 clash as favourites with odds of 1.74, reflecting their strong home form at Stadium Municipal. Auxerre, meanwhile, are priced at 4.93, suggesting a challenging outing for the visitors.

Betting Tip	Odds
Toulouse to win	1.74
Draw	3.51
Auxerre to win	4.93

The draw is an intriguing option at 3.51, especially considering both teams’ recent performances. For those interested in alternative markets, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score could offer exciting returns given the attacking potential on display.

Toulouse Analysis & Past Performance

Toulouse have been in impressive form recently, winning four of their last five matches. Their recent victories include a commanding 5-1 home win against Nice and a solid 2-0 away triumph over Brest, demonstrating both attacking prowess and defensive resilience.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Brest	Toulouse	0 – 2 (Win)	Ligue 1	25 Jan 2026
Toulouse	Nice	5 – 1 (Win)	Ligue 1	17 Jan 2026
Angers	Toulouse	N/A	French Cup	10 Jan 2026
Toulouse	Lens	0 – 3 (Loss)	Ligue 1	2 Jan 2026
Lyon La Duchère	Toulouse	1 – 2 (Win)	French Cup	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• WWWLW

Toulouse’s attack has been potent, averaging 3.20 goals per game in their last five fixtures, while their defence has kept one clean sheet during this period. Their home performances have been less consistent, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five home matches, indicating room for improvement. Currently sitting 8th in Ligue 1 with 29 points, Toulouse display a balanced approach, but their defensive solidity, with an average of 2.20 goals conceded per game, needs tightening to sustain their mid-to-upper table position.

Toulouse Suspensions & Injuries

Toulouse face a few challenges with players unavailable due to injury. The absence of Abu Francis, who is out for the season with a broken ankle, removes a dynamic option from the squad. More pressing, however, is the absence of Dayann Methalie and Frank Magri, both dealing with knee issues. Methalie’s return is anticipated by early February 2026, while Magri is expected back mid-month, potentially impacting Toulouse’s midfield depth.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Abu Francis	Broken ankle	Out for season
Dayann Methalie	Knee surgery	Early February 2026
Frank Magri	Knee injury	Mid February 2026

In terms of tactical adjustments, Toulouse may have to rely more on available players such as Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Pape Demba Diop to fill the gaps left in midfield. The current 3-4-3 formation is likely to remain unchanged, but the team will need to be wary of reduced bench strength, particularly in attack.

The unavailability of these key players could influence betting markets, as Toulouse’s squad depth is tested. With a full-strength lineup, they might have been clear favourites, but these injuries could slightly level the playing field, making the outcome more unpredictable against Auxerre.

Toulouse Key Players

Toulouse’s attacking threat will be led by Yann Gboho, the team’s top scorer with six goals this season. Gboho’s keen eye for goal and ability to exploit defensive gaps make him a formidable threat against Auxerre. His dynamic play and knack for finding the net will be pivotal in breaking down the opposition’s defence.

Supporting Gboho in attack is Santiago Hidalgo, whose creative playmaking provides vital support in the final third. In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr. offers a blend of defensive resilience and offensive creativity, setting the tempo for Toulouse’s play. The defensive trio of Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell, and Rasmus Nicolaisen form a solid backbone, crucial for maintaining structure and thwarting Auxerre’s attacking efforts.

Expected lineup for Toulouse

• Goalkeeper: Guillaume Restes
• Defenders: Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell, Rasmus Nicolaisen
• Midfielders: Rafik Messali, Cristian Cásseres Jr., Pape Demba Diop, Djibril Sidibé
• Forwards: Aron Dønnum, Santiago Hidalgo, Yann Gboho

Toulouse Tactics and Formation

Toulouse Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Yann Gboho
• Midfield Engine: Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Pape Demba Diop
• Defensive Solidity: One clean sheet in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and exploiting wing spaces.

Toulouse’s 3-4-3 formation allows them to maintain a high press while covering wide areas effectively. The back three, led by Rasmus Nicolaisen, offer defensive solidity, although they have managed only one clean sheet in their last five outings. This setup provides flexibility for counter-attacks, with wing-backs Rafik Messali and Djibril Sidibé pushing forward in support.

Offensively, Yann Gboho, Toulouse’s top scorer with six goals, is pivotal in leading the line. His ability to exploit defensive gaps is complemented by Santiago Hidalgo and Aron Dønnum, who provide width and creativity. This trio thrives on quick transitions and creating chances from wide areas.

In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Pape Demba Diop form a dynamic partnership, balancing defensive responsibilities with forward thrusts. Their presence is crucial for Toulouse to maintain possession and dictate the tempo, especially in high-intensity matches.

Auxerre Analysis & Past Performance

Auxerre’s recent form has been notably poor, having suffered five consecutive defeats in their last five matches. This dismal run includes losses against prominent teams such as Paris Saint-Germain (0-1) and Lens (0-1). These results have seen them struggle to find the net consistently, managing to score in only two of their last five games.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Auxerre	Paris Saint-Germain	0 – 1 (Loss)	Ligue 1	23 Jan 2026
Lens	Auxerre	1 – 0 (Loss)	Ligue 1	17 Jan 2026
Brest	Auxerre	2 – 0 (Loss)	Ligue 1	4 Jan 2026
Auxerre	Monaco	1 – 2 (Loss)	Coupe de France	21 Dec 2025
Auxerre	Lille	3 – 4 (Loss)	Ligue 1	14 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• LLLLL

Auxerre have struggled offensively, averaging just 0.80 goals per match in their past five fixtures while conceding an average of 2.00 goals. Defensively, they’ve been leaky, with no clean sheets in this period and conceding in all five matches. Their win ratio stands at a disappointing 0.00% away from home this season, highlighting their need to improve on the road. Currently sitting in 17th place, their league position reflects their ongoing challenges, with only 12 points accumulated so far.

Auxerre Suspensions & Injuries

Auxerre face notable challenges with Francisco Sierralta sidelined due to a thigh injury, expected to return in early February 2026. His absence could affect their defensive solidity, especially as he has been a consistent presence in the backline. Marvin Senaya, serving a one-match suspension for accumulating yellow cards, will also be unavailable, further straining Auxerre’s defensive options.

Player	Reason for Suspension	Matches Left	Expected Return
Marvin Senaya	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

With Sierralta and Senaya out, defensive duties are likely to fall on the shoulders of Clément Akpa and Lamine Sy, who have shown reliability in past matches. However, the lack of depth may force coach Christophe Pélissier to be more conservative in his tactical approach, perhaps reinforcing the midfield to shield the defence.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Francisco Sierralta	Thigh injury	Early February 2026

The absence of these players might tempt punters to favour Toulouse, given Auxerre’s compromised defensive lineup. While their attacking trio remains intact, the team’s ability to maintain a solid defensive shape against a robust Toulouse attack could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Auxerre Key Players

Auxerre’s attack is spearheaded by their top scorer Lassine Sinayoko, who has found the net six times this season. Sinayoko’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses with his pace and precision makes him a constant threat up front. His partnership with Josué Casimir and Danny Namaso is expected to be pivotal in breaking down Toulouse’s defence. Sinayoko’s knack for being in the right place at the right time could be crucial for Auxerre’s offensive strategy.

Supporting the attack from midfield, Naouirou Ahamada and Oussama El Azzouzi are instrumental in orchestrating play. Ahamada’s vision and El Azzouzi’s energy provide a balance of creativity and tenacity. Their ability to control the tempo and link up with the forwards will be vital to Auxerre’s tactical approach. Defensively, Gideon Mensah and Sinaly Diomandé are key to maintaining stability at the back, with Mensah’s overlapping runs adding an extra dimension to the attack.

Expected lineup for Auxerre:

• Goalkeeper: Donovan Léon
• Defenders: Clément Akpa, Gideon Mensah, Lamine Sy, Sinaly Diomandé
• Midfielders: Naouirou Ahamada, Oussama El Azzouzi, Kévin Danois
• Forwards: Josué Casimir, Lassine Sinayoko, Danny Namaso

Auxerre Tactics and Formation

Auxerre Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Lassine Sinayoko
• Midfield Control: Naouirou Ahamada and Oussama El Azzouzi
• Defensive Challenge: Struggled to keep clean sheets, none in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Focus on wing play and counter-attacks.

Auxerre’s 4-3-3 formation is designed to leverage wing play and quick transitions. With Lassine Sinayoko leading the attack, supported by wingers Josué Casimir and Danny Namaso, the team aims to exploit spaces on the flanks. However, the absence of Francisco Sierralta and Nathan Buayi-Kiala due to injury could impact defensive stability.

In midfield, Naouirou Ahamada and Oussama El Azzouzi are pivotal in maintaining possession and breaking up opposition play. Their ability to support both defence and attack will be crucial, particularly given the team’s recent struggles in keeping clean sheets.

Defensively, Auxerre have faced challenges, as reflected in their inability to keep clean sheets in recent matches. The backline, comprising Clément Akpa, Gideon Mensah, Lamine Sy, and Sinaly Diomandé, will need to improve their coordination to withstand Toulouse’s offensive pressure.

Toulouse vs Auxerre Head-to-Head Record

Looking at the head-to-head record, Auxerre have a slight edge over Toulouse with 15 wins to Toulouse’s 13, and there have been six draws. Their last encounter saw Auxerre clinch a narrow 1-0 victory at home in Ligue 1 back in September 2025.

The last time these two met at Stadium Municipal, Toulouse came out on top with a solid 2-0 win in December 2024. Historically, Toulouse have been strong at home against Auxerre, which could be a factor in this upcoming clash.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Auxerre	Toulouse	1 – 0	Ligue 1	2025-09-21
Auxerre	Toulouse	2 – 2	Ligue 1	2025-02-09
Toulouse	Auxerre	2 – 0	Ligue 1	2024-12-01
Toulouse	Auxerre	1 – 1	Ligue 1	2023-05-27
Auxerre	Toulouse	0 – 5	Ligue 1	2023-01-11