Barcelona vs Inter Milan Prediction - Champions League

This semi-final it’s more than just a meeting of two different footballing philosophies — it’s a strategic tussle between storied football cultures. Can Barcelona’s attacking verve disrupt Inter’s steadfast defensive setup? Or will Simone Inzaghi pull off another tactical masterstroke, reminiscent of their triumph in Munich, by capitalising on counter-attacks to outmaneuver Barça?

Both teams have had contrasting fortunes recently, making the storylines as intriguing as the encounter itself. Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, delves into the statistics to provide betting insights for the highly-anticipated clash between Barcelona and Inter Milan.

Barcelona vs Inter Milan Prediction: A high-scoring and fascinating clash of style

Champions League, Semifinal, first leg, Wednesday 30 April, 20:00 (UK)

The Catalans have outperformed everyone in the Champions League, they averaged 3.08 goals per Champions League match this season, 0.58 more than second-ranked Arsenal. 

Raphinha stands out with the most goal contributions in the Champions League—12 goals and seven assists—and is the first Barça player to achieve 50 goals and assists in a single season since the iconic trio of Messi, Suarez, and Neymar in 2015/16. However, it is worth noting that Barcelona will be without their main striker, Robert Lewandowski.

Raphinha of FC Barcelona/Contributor: ANP / Alamy Stock Photo

Our in-house projection tool, BETSiE, has calculated how the absence of the Pole, who is currently injured, affects Barcelona’s chances in the competition. With Lewandowski, Barcelona would have a 55.5% chance of reaching the final and a 15.2% chance of winning it. Without him, these figures drop to 53.9% and 13.9%, respectively. 

Counter-attack masters look tired

Barcelona’s recent Copa del Rey victory over Real Madrid highlighted both their strengths and weaknesses. They dominated large portions of the game, but their pressing waned as the match wore on, allowing Madrid to exploit counter-attacks. This narrative might well play out against Inter, renowned for their adept transitions from defense to attack.

The Nerazzurri have suffered three consecutive defeats, dampening their spirits as they hoped to retain the Serie A title. Fatigue, both physical and mental, is unsurprising given their demanding 52-game season. However, Inter Milan are not short of resilience, a quality that helped them inflict Bayern Munich their first home defeat in Europe since 2021 and react to Harry Kane’s goal at San Siro. 

Projected to be high-scoring encounters, both the first (3.04) and second-leg (3.01) ties are anticipated to be among the most prolific according to BETSiE. The bookmakers have priced Over 2.5 goals at 1.57, suggesting a more goal-rich game compared to Arsenal vs PSG’s 1.90. 

Inter are seen as underdogs, with just an 11.5% chance of winning the Champions League, though their likelihood of reaching the Munich final (44.5%) surpasses that of Arsenal (42%).

• Barcelona vs Inter Milan Prediction: Inter Asian Handicap +0.75
• Best Odds: 2.08
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Barcelona vs Inter Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 06:45, April 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Barcelona vs Inter Milan Team News: Visitors’ attacking partnerships is back

Barcelona are without some key players. Most notably, Lewandowski is out after picking up an injury in a recent La Liga match against Celta Vigo. Also sidelined is midfielder Casadò, who is dealing with a ligament issue, and young talent Bernal, whose season has already come to an end.

Marcus Thuram (FC Inter) dribbles in center field/Contributor: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

Simone Inzaghi, finally has a full squad to choose from after a challenging period. Dumfries, Zielinski, and Thuram are back in action after missing several matches during a particularly congested fixture list, including the Serie A loss to Bologna and the Coppa Italia defeat to AC Milan, where Inter suffered a heavy 3-0 loss. However, Benjamin Pavard picked up an injury in Sunday’s match against Roma and is unlikely to feature. In his place, Matteo Darmian is expected to be part of the back three.

Barcelona possible starting lineup: Szczesny; Koundé, Cubarsí, Iñigo Martínez, Gerard Martín; de Jong, Pedri; Fermín López; Yamal, Ferrán Torres, Raphinha

Inter Milan possible starting lineup: Sommer; Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Çalhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro Martinez, M.Thuram.

Match OPTA Stats: Italians’ clean sheet record under serious threat

• Barcelona haven’t lost any of their six home matches in the Champions League this season (W5 D1), while scoring 21 goals in the process. Only in the 1999/2000 edition have they ever netted more at home in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign (29 in eight games).
• Barcelona are averaging 3.1 goals per game under Hansi Flick in the Champions League; the second-most by a manager-club duo with 10+ games, after Hansi Flick’s Bayern Munich (3.2).
• Meanwhile, Inter Milan could equal the record for most clean sheets by an Italian team in a Champions League campaign (currently on eight), held by AC Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17 (both 9).
• Lautaro Martínez has scored in each of his last five appearances for Internazionale in the Champions League. If he finds the net here, he’ll be just the second South American player to score in six consecutive outings in the competition, after Edinson Cavani (seven between November 2016 and October 2017).

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.