Derby vs Blackburn Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 28 February
Derby vs Blackburn Prediction, Match Preview: This Saturday, 28 February, the Championship presents an intriguing clash between Derby County and Blackburn Rovers at Pride Park. Both teams are aiming to make significant progress in the league standings, and this match could prove pivotal for their respective campaigns. With Derby playing at home, they will be eager to take advantage of familiar surroundings to secure a crucial victory.
Blackburn, meanwhile, will look to upset the hosts and claim valuable points on the road. As the Championship season advances, every fixture becomes increasingly important, and this encounter at Pride Park is no exception. Fans can expect a competitive contest as both teams battle for supremacy in what promises to be an exciting fixture.
Derby vs Blackburn Prediction & Betting Tip
| Betting Tip | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derby County Draw No Bet | 1.75 |
Given the current form and circumstances, our recommended betting tip is ‘Draw No Bet’ in favour of Derby County. This market offers a good balance of potential return and risk mitigation, particularly due to Derby’s home advantage and recent winning streak.
- Derby County have won their last four matches and enjoy a strong home record, which boosts confidence in their ability to secure at least a draw.
- Blackburn Rovers are missing key players such as Adam Forshaw and Ryan Hedges, which could limit their attacking and midfield options.
- Derby County have a psychological edge with their recent head-to-head victory and overall better league position, making them a safer bet at home.
The ‘Draw No Bet’ option provides prudent cover should Blackburn’s recent resurgence continue, ensuring a safety net if the match ends in a draw.
Betting Odds
As Derby County prepare to host Blackburn Rovers at Pride Park, the betting odds suggest a competitive encounter. Derby are favoured with odds of 2.17, reflecting their home advantage. However, Blackburn’s odds of 3.35 indicate they should not be underestimated, especially given their potential to spring a surprise away from home.
| Betting Tip | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derby to win | 2.17 |
| Draw | 3.2 |
| Blackburn to win | 3.35 |
The draw is priced at 3.2, which could be tempting for those anticipating a closely fought match. Punters might also find value in the over 2.5 goals market, considering both teams’ recent attacking displays in the Championship.
Derby County Analysis & Recent Performance
Derby County’s recent form has been inconsistent, with the team alternating between wins and losses in their last five matches. They secured victories against Swansea City (2-0) and Bristol City (5-0), but suffered defeats to Hull City (2-4), Watford (0-2), and Ipswich Town (1-2). This mixed set of results highlights their struggle to maintain momentum and consistency.
| Home Team | Away Team | Result | Competition | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | Derby County | 4 – 2 (Loss) | Championship | 24 February 2026 |
| Watford | Derby County | 2 – 0 (Loss) | Championship | 21 February 2026 |
| Derby County | Swansea City | 2 – 0 (Win) | Championship | 14 February 2026 |
| Derby County | Ipswich Town | 1 – 2 (Loss) | Championship | 7 February 2026 |
| Bristol City | Derby County | 0 – 5 (Win) | Championship | 30 January 2026 |
Recent Form:
Offensively, Derby County have been productive, averaging 2.00 goals per game over their last five fixtures, with Patrick Agyemang leading the charge, netting 10 goals this season. However, their defence has been less reliable, conceding an average of 1.60 goals per match and achieving only two clean sheets in the same period. Defensive lapses have been a significant factor in their recent losses.
Derby’s home performance this season further underscores their inconsistency. With a win ratio of just 0.29 at Pride Park, the team has struggled to fully capitalise on home advantage. Despite scoring in 14 consecutive home games, their defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, as evidenced by their 1-2 loss to Ipswich Town at home. Currently sitting 11th in the Championship with 48 points, Derby County will need to tighten up defensively to improve their standing and make the most of their attacking strengths.
- LLWLW
Derby County Suspensions & Injuries
Derby County face a challenging fixture against Blackburn Rovers with a few key players sidelined due to injury. The absence of Owen Beck, who is dealing with a hamstring injury with an unknown return date, will likely impact their defensive options. Additionally, Max Johnston and Sondre Langås are also out with similar injuries, expected to return in early and mid-March, respectively. This leaves manager John Eustace with limited choices in defence, potentially affecting the team’s overall balance and solidity.
| Player | Injury | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Beck | Hamstring Injury | Unknown |
| Max Johnston | Hamstring Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Sondre Langås | Hamstring Injury | Mid March 2026 |
With these absences, Derby may need to reshuffle their defensive line, possibly bringing in younger or less experienced players to fill the gaps left by Beck and Johnston. The tactical impact could see Derby adopting a more cautious approach, focusing on maintaining a compact formation to mitigate the risk of conceding goals. This strategy might also influence their attacking play, as they may prioritise defensive stability over aggressive forward movements.
The unavailability of these players could also have betting implications. Punters might view Derby’s weakened defensive line as an opportunity for Blackburn to exploit, possibly leading to higher odds for a Blackburn win. However, Derby’s resilience at Pride Park could still make them a formidable opponent, and any tactical adjustments could catch the visitors by surprise.
The injuries have certainly dented Derby’s squad depth, but the team has shown in the past that they can adapt to challenging situations. The upcoming match will test their ability to cope with these setbacks and maintain their competitive edge in the Championship.
Derby County Key Players
Derby County’s attacking threat will heavily rely on their top scorer, Patrick Agyemang, who has found the net 10 times this season. Agyemang’s ability to exploit defensive gaps with his sharp movement and clinical finishing makes him a constant danger in the final third. His partnership with Ben Brereton Díaz and Bobby Clark in the forward line is expected to create significant pressure on Blackburn’s defence.
In midfield, Lewis Travis and Samuel Szmodics are pivotal for Derby’s playmaking duties. Travis, known for his tough tackling and dynamic presence, provides the necessary balance, allowing Szmodics to push forward and create opportunities. Szmodics’ vision and creativity will be essential to unlocking Blackburn’s defensive setup.
Expected lineup for Derby County
- Goalkeeper: Josh Vickers
- Defenders: Derry Murkin, Craig Forsyth, Matt Clarke, Callum Elder
- Midfielders: David Ozoh, Lewis Travis, Samuel Szmodics
- Forwards: Ben Brereton Díaz, Bobby Clark, Patrick Agyemang
Defensively, the experience of Craig Forsyth and Matt Clarke will be crucial. Forsyth’s leadership and Clarke’s aerial prowess form a solid backbone, essential for countering Blackburn’s attacking threats. Josh Vickers in goal will need to be at his best to ensure Derby maintain their defensive solidity. The tactical impact of these players, through their individual strengths, will shape Derby’s approach, aiming for a cohesive and resilient performance.
Derby County Tactics and Formation
Derby County Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-5-1
- Key Forward: Patrick Agyemang
- Midfield Core: Lewis Travis and Ben Brereton Díaz
- Defensive Challenge: Conceded 4 goals against Hull City
- Notable Strategy: Midfield control and counter-attacking play.
Derby County’s likely use of a 4-5-1 formation is aimed at solidifying midfield control while providing support to their lone striker, Patrick Agyemang, who has been prolific with 10 goals this season. The midfield, led by Lewis Travis and Ben Brereton Díaz, is crucial for both defensive stability and launching counter-attacks.
Defensively, Derby’s performance in their last match against Hull City, where they conceded four goals, highlights vulnerabilities that need addressing. The defensive line, including Callum Elder and Matt Clarke, must improve coordination to ensure they can withstand Blackburn’s offensive threats.
Offensively, Derby will likely focus on quick transitions from defence to attack, capitalising on the dynamic play of wingers like Bobby Clark. This approach aims to exploit Blackburn’s defensive gaps, particularly during periods of high pressing.
Blackburn Rovers Analysis & Recent Performance
Blackburn Rovers have experienced a mixed run of results in their recent form, securing three wins and suffering two losses in their last five matches. Notably, they achieved victories against Preston North End (1-0) and Queens Park Rangers (3-1), but suffered a setback with a 2-0 defeat against Norwich City.
| Home Side | Away Side | Outcome | League | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Rovers | Bristol City | 1 – 2 (Defeat) | Championship | 24 Feb 2026 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Preston North End | 1 – 0 (Victory) | Championship | 20 Feb 2026 |
| Queens Park Rangers | Blackburn Rovers | 1 – 3 (Victory) | Championship | 14 Feb 2026 |
| Norwich City | Blackburn Rovers | 2 – 0 (Defeat) | Championship | 7 Feb 2026 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Sheffield Wednesday | 1 – 0 (Victory) | Championship | 3 Feb 2026 |
Recent Form:
- LWWLW
Blackburn’s attacking output has been moderate, averaging 1.20 goals per game over their last five fixtures. Defensively, they have maintained two clean sheets, demonstrating occasional solidity, though they conceded an average of 1.00 goals per match. Away from home, Blackburn’s form has been less impressive, with only one victory in their last five away games, yielding a win ratio of 20%. Their league standing at 20th with 38 points reflects a team fighting to avoid relegation, highlighting the importance of improving their away performance to enhance their overall season prospects.
Blackburn Rovers Suspensions & Injuries
Blackburn Rovers’ squad is significantly affected by a series of injuries, which could have a substantial tactical impact on their upcoming match against Derby County. The absence of key players such as Ryan Hedges, due to a broken leg, and Lewis Miller, who is out for the season with a cruciate ligament injury, severely limits their defensive options. Scott Wharton and Sidnei Tavares are also sidelined with injuries, both expected to return in early March, which leaves Blackburn’s defence and midfield notably weakened.
The injuries to Augustus Kargbo and Matty Litherland further compound Blackburn’s woes, as both players are vital to their attacking and midfield strategies. With these players unavailable, Michael O’Neill will have to rely on less experienced squad members or adjust his formation to compensate for the loss of pace and creativity these players typically provide.
| Player | Injury | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Augustus Kargbo | Calf Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Scott Wharton | Achilles Tendon Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Sidnei Tavares | Knee Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Matty Litherland | Hamstring Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Ryan Hedges | Broken Leg | Early May 2026 |
| Aynsley Pears | Wrist Injury | Early March 2026 |
| George Pratt | Muscle Injury | Early March 2026 |
| Lewis Miller | Cruciate Ligament Injury | Out for Season |
| Todd Cantwell | Muscle Injury | Mid March 2026 |
In terms of tactical adjustments, Blackburn may need to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on a solid defensive setup to mitigate the impact of these absences. This might involve deploying a more compact midfield to shield the defence, given the lack of experienced personnel. The betting markets might react to these developments by favouring Derby County, as Blackburn’s depth will be tested in this fixture.
Blackburn Rovers Key Players
Yuki Ohashi stands out as Blackburn Rovers’ top scorer with 8 goals this season. His impressive goal tally underscores his importance in leading the attacking line. Ohashi’s agility and positioning are pivotal, often finding pockets of space that disrupt opposing defences. His partnership with Mathias Jørgensen in the forward line will be crucial in unlocking Derby County’s defence, leveraging both pace and technical ability.
In midfield, Sondre Tronstad is a key player, orchestrating play with his vision and passing accuracy. His ability to control the tempo and link defence to attack will be essential for Blackburn’s tactical setup. Kristi Montgomery also plays a vital role with his dynamic box-to-box play, providing both defensive cover and offensive support.
Expected lineup for Blackburn Rovers
- Goalkeeper: Balázs Tóth
- Defenders: Hayden Carter, Sean McLoughlin, Eiran Cashin
- Midfielders: Ryan Alebiosu, Sondre Tronstad, Kristi Montgomery, Harry Pickering, Ryoya Morishita
- Forwards: Mathias Jørgensen, Yuki Ohashi
Defensively, Hayden Carter and Sean McLoughlin form a solid pairing, tasked with maintaining a resilient backline. Their robust defending and aerial prowess will be crucial in neutralising Derby’s attacking threats. Harry Pickering, operating from the left flank, adds width and supports both defensive and offensive transitions, making him an influential figure in Blackburn’s tactical approach.
Blackburn Rovers Tactics and Formation
Blackburn Rovers Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-3-3
- Key Forward: Mathias Jørgensen
- Midfield Engine: Kristi Montgomery and Sondre Tronstad
- Defensive Solidity: Two clean sheets in the last five games
- Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick transition play.
Blackburn Rovers, under the guidance of Michael O’Neill, typically deploy a 4-3-3 formation that emphasises both offensive width and defensive solidity. The midfield trio, featuring Kristi Montgomery and Sondre Tronstad, is pivotal in dictating the tempo of the game, balancing defensive duties with supporting the attack.
Defensively, Blackburn have shown resilience, as evidenced by their two clean sheets in the last five matches. The backline, led by Hayden Carter and Sean McLoughlin, provides a robust shield in front of goalkeeper Balázs Tóth, ensuring a structured defensive setup.
Offensively, Blackburn’s strategy is centred around high pressing and capitalising on quick transitions, with Mathias Jørgensen spearheading the attack. Wingers Ryoya Morishita and Yuki Ohashi add dynamism and creativity, making Blackburn dangerous on the counter-attack.
Derby County vs Blackburn Rovers H2H Record
In their head-to-head record, Blackburn Rovers have the upper hand with 14 wins compared to Derby County’s 8, alongside 6 draws. The last encounter saw Derby County snatch a 2-1 victory away at Blackburn, which was a Championship match, just like their upcoming clash.
The last time Derby County hosted Blackburn Rovers at Pride Park, they managed a 2-1 win back in March 2025. This suggests Derby might have a slight edge at home, despite Blackburn’s overall dominance in the head-to-head statistics.
| Home Team | Away Team | Result | Competition | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Rovers | Derby County | 1 – 2 | Championship | 2025-11-08 |
| Derby County | Blackburn Rovers | 2 – 1 | Championship | 2025-03-08 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Derby County | 4 – 2 | Championship | 2024-08-09 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Derby County | 3 – 1 | Championship | 2022-03-15 |
| Derby County | Blackburn Rovers | 1 – 2 | Championship | 2021-10-30 |
