Borussia Dortmund vs. Holstein Kiel Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 17 May 2025 - bettingexpert
The Bundesliga season concludes with a crucial clash between Borussia Dortmund and Holstein Kiel at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund, positioned 5th with 54 points, must secure a victory by at least two goals to leapfrog into a Champions League spot, given their strong end to the season. Conversely, Holstein Kiel, already relegated in 17th place with 25 points, will play for pride.
Dortmund, led by Niko Kovač, come in with formidable form (WWWWW) and main striker Serhou Guirassy scoring 20 goals this season. Their impressive stats include scoring in seven consecutive matches and averaging 3.40 goals in the last five games.
On the other hand, Holstein Kiel, under Marcel Rapp, have faced a tough campaign, most recently losing to Freiburg, which sealed their relegation. With key players such as Shuto Machino, who netted 11 goals, they managed only one win in the last five encounters (LWWDL).
Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Prediction & Betting Tip
| Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Borussia Dortmund to win | 1.08 |
- Motivation: Dortmund needs a victory to keep their Champions League hopes alive, while Kiel is already relegated.
- Form: Dortmund has a five-game winning streak, including dominant performances.
- Squad Quality: Dortmund’s key players are mostly available and expected to perform well, especially top scorer Serhou Guirassy with 20 goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Odds
With the final round of the Bundesliga season upon us, the betting odds heavily favour Borussia Dortmund to clinch a decisive victory over relegated Holstein Kiel. Here’s a look at the current betting odds:
| Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.08 |
| Draw | 12.58 |
| Holstein Kiel | 21.61 |
Dortmund is the bookmaker’s clear favourite, driven by their need to secure a Champions League spot and their impressive recent form. Kiel, already relegated, have little left to play for, making them heavy underdogs. Betting on Dortmund offers low risk but modest reward, while a punt on a draw or Kiel win offers high returns but comes with substantial risk.
Borussia Dortmund Team Analysis
Borussia Dortmund Recent Performance
Borussia Dortmund enters this key match riding a wave of impressive form, having won their last five games across all competitions. Here’s a snapshot of their recent fixtures:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-05-11 | Bundesliga | 2-4 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Wolfsburg | 2025-05-03 | Bundesliga | 4-0 (Win) |
| Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-04-26 | Bundesliga | 2-3 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Borussia M’gladbach | 2025-04-20 | Bundesliga | 3-2 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Barcelona | 2025-04-15 | Champions League | 3-1 (Win) |
Dortmund has shown exceptional goal-scoring prowess, averaging 3.40 goals per game over the last five matches. They have kept one clean sheet in this span, demonstrating a balanced but aggressive approach. This consistent performance has kept their Champions League hopes alive, positioning them as clear favourites against Holstein Kiel.
Borussia Dortmund Key Players
For Borussia Dortmund, several key players are expected to make significant contributions in their crucial match against Holstein Kiel. Leading the charge is Serhou Guirassy, Dortmund’s top scorer, who has netted 20 goals this season. Guirassy’s form will be vital in breaking down Kiel’s defense.
Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, operating in the attacking midfield positions, will look to create and exploit spaces with their creativity and pace. Brandt, in particular, has been instrumental in linking play and providing assists.
Niklas Süle anchors the defense and will be crucial in dealing with Holstein Kiel’s forward Shuto Machino, who has 11 goals this season.
Expected lineup for Borussia Dortmund:
- Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
- Defenders: Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini
- Midfielders: Julian Ryerson, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson
- Attackers: Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi, Serhou Guirassy
Borussia Dortmund Suspensions & Injuries
Borussia Dortmund will be without some key players due to injuries and suspensions for their crucial match against Holstein Kiel.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Campbell | Knock injury | Few days |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | Meniscus injury | Early October 2025 |
| Maximilian Beier | Ankle injury | Late May 2025 |
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Pascal Groß | Yellow cards | 1 match left |
The absence of Pascal Groß due to suspension may affect Dortmund’s midfield depth, while injuries to Campbell, Schlotterbeck, and Beier could limit defensive and attacking options. Nonetheless, Dortmund has sufficient squad depth to cover these absences. These setbacks are unlikely to hinder Dortmund significantly in their push for a Champions League spot.
Borussia Dortmund Tactics and Formation
Borussia Dortmund Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Serhou Guirassy, with 20 goals this season
- Midfield Quartet: Julian Ryerson, Marcel Sabitzer, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson
- Defensive Trio: Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini
- Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games
- Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick counter-attacks, particularly effective in overcoming the defensive weaknesses of Holstein Kiel, who concede an average of 2.2 goals per match
Dortmund’s tactics are expected to focus heavily on exploiting the vulnerabilities of Holstein Kiel’s defense. Despite some absences, their well-rounded squad depth should enable them to maintain their offensive momentum.
Holstein Kiel Team Analysis
Holstein Kiel Recent Performance
Holstein Kiel has had a mixed run of form in their last five matches, managing two wins, one draw, and two losses.
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | Freiburg | 2025-05-10 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Loss) |
| Augsburg | Holstein Kiel | 2025-05-04 | Bundesliga | 1-3 (Win) |
| Holstein Kiel | Borussia Moenchengladbach | 2025-04-26 | Bundesliga | 4-3 (Win) |
| RB Leipzig | Holstein Kiel | 2025-04-19 | Bundesliga | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli | 2025-04-12 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Loss) |
Holstein Kiel’s recent performances have seen them concede goals consistently. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games, averaging 2 goals scored but also conceding about 2.2 goals per game this season. This defensive frailty is a significant concern as they head into their final match against a high-scoring Borussia Dortmund side.
Despite their relegation status, Kiel has shown defensive lapses that could be exploited by Dortmund’s potent attack.
Holstein Kiel Key Players
Holstein Kiel’s attack will heavily rely on their top scorer, Shuto Machino, who has netted 11 goals this season. His partnership with Steven Skrzybski in the attacking midfield can be pivotal in breaking down Borussia Dortmund’s defense. Additionally, Alexander Bernhardsson, consistently providing pace and creativity, will be key on the flanks.
Expected lineup for Holstein Kiel:
- Goalkeeper: Thomas Dähne
- Defenders: Timo Becker, Carl Johansson, David Zec
- Midfielders: Lasse Rosenboom, Magnus Knudsen, Nicolai Remberg, John Tolkin, Steven Skrzybski
- Attackers: Alexander Bernhardsson, Shuto Machino
Key individual battles to watch include Shuto Machino against Waldemar Anton and Steven Skrzybski against Marcel Sabitzer. These matchups will play a crucial role in determining Kiel’s chances against a solid Dortmund squad.
Holstein Kiel Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Erras | Head injury | Late May 2025 |
| Ivan Nekic | Medial Collateral Ligament injury | Early June 2025 |
| Andu Kelati | Knee injury | Late May 2025 |
| Colin Kleine-Bekel | Cruciate ligament injury | Early June 2025 |
| Marco Komenda | Tendon injury | Mid June 2025 |
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Armin Gigovic | Yellow cards | 1 match left |
The extensive injury list for Holstein Kiel, including key defenders and midfielders like Colin Kleine-Bekel and Ivan Nekic, significantly impacts their depth and defensive stability. Additionally, the suspension of Armin Gigovic further diminishes their midfield options, complicating their task against a strong Borussia Dortmund side. Kiel will need to rely on their fringe players to step up in this challenging fixture.
Holstein Kiel Tactics and Formation
Holstein Kiel’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-1-2
- Key Forwards: Alexander Bernhardsson, Shuto Machino
- Creative Midfielder: Steven Skrzybski
- Defensive Setup: Three central defenders – Timo Becker, Carl Johansson, David Zec
- Wing Play: John Tolkin and Lasse Rosenboom provide width as left and right midfielders, respectively.
- Midfield Battle: Magnus Knudsen and Nicolai Remberg are expected to anchor the midfield, although depth is a concern due to injuries and suspensions.
Despite their precarious position, their likely strategy will focus on using the wingbacks to stretch the play and provide through balls to the forwards.
With an average of 2 goals scored in the last 5 matches, Kiel may still pose a threat offensively. However, their shaky defense, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, remains a major area of concern.
Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-01-14 | Bundesliga | 4-2 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Holstein Kiel | 2021-05-01 | DFB Pokal | 5-0 (Win) |
| Holstein Kiel | Borussia Dortmund | 2012-02-07 | DFB Pokal | 0-4 (Win) |
The last encounter in January 2025 saw Holstein Kiel surprisingly triumph over Borussia Dortmund with a 4-2 win. However, previous meetings have been dominated by Dortmund, including a 5-0 thrashing in the 2021 DFB Pokal.
Dortmund holds a clear upper hand historically, and their recent form suggests they are poised to extend this dominance. Holstein Kiel will need to overcome significant odds to replicate their earlier success against Dortmund.
Odds accurate as of 15 May 2025, 14:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
