Derby vs. Stoke Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 3 May 2025 - bettingexpert

As the Championship season wraps up with Round 46, Derby County hosts Stoke City at Pride Park on 3 May 2025. Both teams are just above the relegation zone, sitting in 19th and 18th positions, respectively, making this a crucial fixture for both clubs.

Derby, under the guidance of John Eustace, is in decent form with 8 points from their last 5 matches. Their recent run includes a solid 1-0 away win over Hull. Stoke, managed by Mark Robins, has seen a mixed bag of results lately, including a heavy 6-0 defeat to Leeds and a 2-0 loss to Sheffield United. With both teams separated by just one point, every moment could be pivotal.

Given the tight competition and the need for both teams to secure valuable points, a balanced first half seems likely. Our betting tip recommends a draw in the first half, reflecting the balanced aspirations of both sides.

With a lot at stake and a heated atmosphere expected, this match is set to be a thrilling encounter with both teams fighting tooth and nail for survival.

Derby vs Stoke Prediction & Betting Tip

Our recommended betting tip for this matchup is a draw in the first half. This choice is based on the fact that both teams are struggling to secure late-season points and are likely to be cautious in the early stages of the game.

Derby vs Stoke Prediction
Betting Tip	Odds
Draw in the 1st Half	2.87

• Both teams are close in the standings, with just one point between them, hinting at a tightly contested game.
• Derby has shown decent defensive form lately with 2 clean sheets in their last 5 games, making a cautious start likely.
• Stoke has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.80 goals in their last 5 games, suggesting a low-scoring first half.

Derby vs Stoke Odds

Derby vs Stoke Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Derby	2.04
Draw	2.87
Stoke	4.33

Derby comes into this matchup as the favourites with odds of 2.04, reflecting their strong recent form and home advantage.
A draw is also a considerable option at 2.87, given both teams’ similar standings and recent performances.
Stoke, though the underdogs with odds of 4.33, will be looking to bounce back from consecutive defeats.
This close competition makes for an intriguing bet, especially with both teams striving to secure their spots in the Championship next season.

Derby Team Analysis

Derby Recent Performance

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Hull	Derby	2025-04-26	Championship	0-1 (Win)
West Bromwich	Derby	2025-04-21	Championship	1-3 (Win)
Derby	Luton	2025-04-18	Championship	0-1 (Loss)
Portsmouth	Derby	2025-04-12	Championship	2-2 (Draw)
Derby	Burnley	2025-04-08	Championship	0-0 (Draw)

Derby have shown strong form recently, taking 8 points from their last 5 fixtures (WWLDD). They’ve kept two clean sheets in these games and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Their last two victories were particularly impressive, with a 3-1 win over West Bromwich and a solid 1-0 against Hull. Despite a stumble with a 1-0 home loss to Luton, they managed a 2-2 draw at Portsmouth and a goalless draw against Burnley.

Derby Key Players

Derby County will be looking towards their top scorer, Jerry Yates, who has netted 10 goals this season, to break down Stoke’s defence. Yates will be a focal point in Derby’s attack, alongside Marcus Harness who can be crucial in creating opportunities. In midfield, the trio of Liam Thompson, Harrison Armstrong, and Ebou Adams will be vital in controlling the pace of the game and providing support to both the defence and attack. The defensive line, featuring Craig Forsyth, Matt Clarke, Nathaniel Phillips, and Sondre Langås, will aim to maintain the solid form that has seen them keep two clean sheets in the last five games.

Expected lineup for Derby:

• Goalkeeper: Josh Vickers
• Defenders: Craig Forsyth, Matt Clarke, Nathaniel Phillips, Sondre Langås
• Midfielders: Liam Thompson, Harrison Armstrong, Ebou Adams, Kane Wilson
• Forwards: Jerry Yates, Marcus Harness

A key individual battle to watch will be Jerry Yates against Stoke’s central defenders Ben Wilmot and Ashley Phillips, which could be decisive in determining the match’s outcome.

Derby Suspensions & Injuries

Derby County has a significant list of injuries that could potentially impact their performance in the upcoming match against Stoke. Here is the detailed injury report:

Player	Injury	Expected return
Curtis Nelson	Cruciate ligament injury	Early October 2025
Dajaune Brown	Hamstring injury	Late May 2025
David Ozoh	Thigh injury	Out for season
Lars-Jorgen Salvesen	Knee surgery	Late July 2025
Ryan Nyambe	Hamstring injury	Mid May 2025
Callum Elder	Knock injury	Doubtful
Jacob Widell Zetterström	Broken collarbone	Mid June 2025

These injuries, especially in defensive and midfield positions, may force Derby’s coach John Eustace to make significant adjustments to the squad. The absence of key players could test Derby’s depth as they look to secure a strong finish to their Championship campaign.

Derby Tactics and Formation

Derby Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Jerry Yates, with 10 goals this season
• Midfield Strength: Ebou Adams, Liam Thompson, and Harrison Armstrong forming a solid central trio
• Defensive Setup: Four defenders – Sondre Langås, Matt Clarke, Nathaniel Phillips, and Craig Forsyth, with Josh Vickers guarding the net
• Recent Clean Sheets: Two clean sheets in their last five games, showcasing defensive resilience

John Eustace’s Derby side depends on a flexible 3-5-2 formation, geared towards maintaining a compact shape defensively while offering width through wing-backs Kane Wilson and Craig Forsyth. The physicality and attacking prowess of Yates up front will aim to exploit Stoke’s vulnerabilities.

Stoke City Team Analysis

Stoke City Recent Performance

• Recent Form: LLWWD
  Stoke City has had a mixed bag of results in their last five matches. After back-to-back wins against Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff, they suffered two heavy defeats to Leeds and Sheffield United. They did, however, manage a draw against Luton. On average, Stoke has scored only 0.8 goals in their last five games and kept two clean sheets.

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Stoke	Sheffield United	2025-04-25	Championship	0-2 (Loss)
Leeds	Stoke	2025-04-21	Championship	6-0 (Loss)
Stoke	Sheffield Wednesday	2025-04-18	Championship	2-0 (Win)
Cardiff	Stoke	2025-04-12	Championship	0-1 (Win)
Stoke	Luton	2025-04-08	Championship	1-1 (Draw)

While their defense usually holds its own, Stoke’s recent form suggests they will need a stronger attacking performance to secure a win at Pride Park.

Stoke City Key Players

Stoke City’s hopes will hinge on the performances of some key players, particularly Lewis Baker and Sam Gallagher. Baker, the team’s top scorer with 7 goals, will play a pivotal role in creating and converting chances in the attacking midfield position. Gallagher, leading the line, is critical for capitalizing on the opportunities Baker might create.
In defense, goalkeeper Viktor Johansson will be crucial in keeping Derby’s striker Jerry Yates at bay. Alongside him, Junior Tchamadeu and Ashley Phillips will be tasked with maintaining a solid backline against Derby’s attack.

Expected lineup for Stoke:

• Goalkeeper: Viktor Johansson
• Defenders: Junior Tchamadeu, Ashley Phillips, Ben Wilmot, Lynden Gooch
• Midfielders: Wouter Burger, Tatsuki Seko, Million Manhoef, Lewis Baker, Joon-ho Bae
• Attacker: Sam Gallagher
  The midfield battle between Baker and Derby’s Harrison Armstrong could be decisive in the outcome of this fixture.

Stoke City Suspensions & Injuries

Stoke City will face some challenges due to several key player injuries, which might impact their performance against Derby.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Souleymane Sidibe	Muscle injury	Mid May 2025
Enda Stevens	Leg injury	Mid May 2025
Eric Junior Bocat	Muscle injury	Mid May 2025
Jordan Thompson	Strain injury	Mid May 2025
Michael Rose	Leg injury	Mid May 2025
Ben Pearson	Leg injury	Mid May 2025

The absence of these players might leave holes in the squad, especially in defense and midfield. Lewis Baker will need to step up in Pearson’s absence, while the defensive unit will miss the stability provided by Stevens and Sidibe. This could lead to vulnerabilities that Derby may seek to exploit.

Stoke City Tactics and Formation

Stoke City’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Sam Gallagher
• Midfield Duo: Wouter Burger, Tatsuki Seko
• Defensive Line: Junior Tchamadeu, Ashley Phillips, Ben Wilmot, Lynden Gooch

Stoke City will likely deploy their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to control the midfield with the partnership of Wouter Burger and Tatsuki Seko. Lewis Baker is crucial in the attacking midfielder role, linking up play and driving forward. The defensive line has been steadfast with two clean sheets in the last five games—a rough recent run notwithstanding. Expect Stoke to emphasize building from the back and maintaining a tight defensive structure while looking for opportunities to release Sam Gallagher up front.

Derby vs Stoke Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 3 May 2025

Derby vs Stoke Head-to-Head Statistics

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Stoke City	Derby County	2024-11-02	Championship	2-1 (Loss)
Derby County	Stoke City	2023-07-22	Club Friendly	3-0 (Win)
Stoke City	Derby County	2021-12-30	Championship	1-2 (Win)
Derby County	Stoke City	2021-09-18	Championship	2-1 (Win)
Stoke City	Derby County	2021-03-20	Championship	1-0 (Loss)

Recent encounters show a competitive edge between these two sides. Derby has emerged victorious in three of their last five meetings, including a dominant 3-0 win in a friendly match in 2023. Stoke did manage to grab a win in their most recent clash back in November 2024. This recent history points to a tightly contested match, especially considering the importance of securing points at this stage of the season.

Odds accurate as of 01/05/2025 12:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any {bookmaker}.