Derby vs Swansea Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 14 February

Derby County will host Swansea City at Pride Park in an intriguing Championship clash on Saturday, 14 February. As both teams vie for crucial points, this match promises to be a significant encounter in the league. Derby, playing on their home turf, will look to leverage their familiarity with Pride Park to gain an advantage over their Welsh opponents.

Swansea City, on the other hand, will be aiming to upset the hosts and secure a valuable away victory. With both teams having their sights set on climbing the Championship table, this match could have important implications for their respective campaigns. Fans can expect a competitive and closely contested game as Derby and Swansea battle it out for supremacy in this league fixture.

Derby vs Swansea Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes	1.8

Given the attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, our recommended betting tip is for both teams to score. Derby’s recent 5-0 win and Swansea’s consistent scoring record make this a promising option.

• Derby have shown their ability to find the back of the net, especially at home, as evidenced by their recent 5-0 win.
• Swansea’s consistent scoring in 81% of their matches highlights their attacking threat.
• Both teams have defensive issues, with key absences likely to lead to more goals.

Both sides have demonstrated strong attacking form, scoring in 81% of their matches this season.

Betting Odds

Derby are positioned as slight favourites in this Championship clash at Pride Park, with odds of 2.19 reflecting their home advantage. Swansea, however, are not far behind with odds of 3.36, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Betting Tip	Odds
Derby to win	2.19
Draw	3.15
Swansea to win	3.36

The draw is priced at 3.15, indicating that bookmakers see a closely contested match. For those looking to place a bet, consider the potential for both teams to score, given their attacking capabilities.

Derby Analysis & Past Performance

Derby have demonstrated mixed form recently, with their last five matches yielding three wins, one draw, and one loss. Notably, their victories include a commanding 5-0 win against Bristol City and a solid 2-1 triumph over Charlton. However, they faced a setback in their most recent outing, suffering a 1-2 defeat at home to Ipswich.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Derby	Ipswich	1 – 2 (Loss)	Championship	Feb 7, 2026
Bristol City	Derby	0 – 5 (Win)	Championship	Jan 30, 2026
Derby	West Bromwich	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	Jan 23, 2026
Charlton	Derby	1 – 2 (Win)	Championship	Jan 20, 2026
Preston	Derby	0 – 1 (Win)	Championship	Jan 17, 2026

Recent Form:

• LWDWW

Derby have been relatively effective in attack, averaging 2.00 goals per game over their last five fixtures while maintaining a defensive average of 0.80 goals conceded per match. They have managed to keep two clean sheets during this period. Home performance has been less convincing with only one win in their last five home encounters, indicating a win ratio of 20% at Pride Park. This home record contrasts with their overall season performance, where they sit 11th in the Championship with 45 points, showcasing stronger resilience on the road.

Derby Suspensions & Injuries

Derby County face notable challenges ahead of their clash with Swansea due to key injuries and suspensions. The absence of Lewis Travis, who is serving a one-match suspension for accumulation of yellow or red cards, will require adjustments in the midfield. His role as a central pivot will likely be filled by a less experienced player, which could impact Derby’s ability to control the game’s tempo.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Lewis Travis	Yellow/red card	1	Unknown

Injuries have further compounded Derby’s squad issues, with Owen Beck, Carlton Morris, Max Johnston, and Sondre Langås all sidelined. The return of Morris and Johnston is anticipated in late February, which means they will miss this critical fixture. The absence of these players, particularly in the attacking and defensive lines, might force Derby to rely on their depth, testing the squad’s resilience.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Owen Beck	Hamstring Injury	Unknown
Carlton Morris	Knee Injury	Late February 2026
Max Johnston	Hamstring Injury	Late February 2026
Sondre Langås	Hamstring Injury	Mid March 2026

Tactically, John Eustace may need to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on defensive solidity given these absences. The lack of depth could see Derby opting for a more compact formation, relying on counter-attacks to exploit Swansea’s weaknesses. These unavailabilities might influence betting markets, possibly skewing odds in favour of Swansea, given Derby’s weakened line-up.

Derby Key Players

In Derby’s upcoming clash against Swansea, the spotlight will be on their attacking force, particularly Ben Brereton Díaz and Rhian Brewster. Ben Brereton Díaz, known for his agility and precise finishing, will be crucial in leading the forward line in the absence of top scorer Carlton Morris. His ability to exploit defensive gaps could be pivotal in breaking down Swansea’s defence. Alongside him, Rhian Brewster’s pace and intelligent movement make him a constant threat, capable of both scoring and setting up goals.

In midfield, Bobby Clark’s playmaking skills will be essential for controlling the game’s tempo and supplying the forwards with quality passes. His vision and creativity are expected to be a key factor in unlocking Swansea’s defensive setup. Defensively, Matt Clarke and Danny Batth form a solid central partnership, tasked with maintaining a tight backline and neutralising Swansea’s attacking threats. Their aerial prowess and defensive acumen will be vital for Derby’s tactical approach.

• Goalkeeper: Josh Vickers
• Defenders: Joe Ward, Matt Clarke, Danny Batth, Derry Murkin
• Midfielders: David Ozoh, Liam Thompson, Bobby Clark
• Forwards: Ben Brereton Díaz, Rhian Brewster, Patrick Agyemang

Derby Tactics and Formation

Derby Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Patrick Agyemang
• Midfield Pivot: Lewis Travis and David Ozoh
• Defensive Strength: Struggled defensively, conceding in three of the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on possession and building from the back.

Derby County typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, allowing them to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game. With Lewis Travis and David Ozoh anchoring the midfield, they focus on ball retention and transitioning play from defence to attack. Bobby Clark plays a pivotal role as the attacking midfielder, linking up with forward Patrick Agyemang and wingers Ben Brereton Díaz and Rhian Brewster.

Defensively, Derby have faced challenges, conceding in three of their last five games. The backline, consisting of Joe Ward, Matt Clarke, Danny Batth, and Derry Murkin, needs to tighten up to improve their chances of keeping clean sheets. The absence of a consistent goalkeeper has also been a concern.

Offensively, Derby aim to exploit their opponents through patient build-up play and quick interchanges in the final third. Despite their offensive potential, their recent home form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five home matches at Pride Park.

Swansea Analysis & Past Performance

Swansea’s recent form has been commendable, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. Notably, they secured a commanding 4-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday, showcasing their attacking prowess and defensive solidity.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Swansea	Sheffield Wednesday	4 – 0 (Win)	Championship	8 Feb 2026
Watford	Swansea	0 – 2 (Win)	Championship	31 Jan 2026
Hull	Swansea	2 – 1 (Loss)	Championship	24 Jan 2026
Swansea	Blackburn	3 – 1 (Win)	Championship	20 Jan 2026
Swansea	Birmingham	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	17 Jan 2026

Recent Form:

• WWLWD

Swansea’s attack has been effective, averaging 2.20 goals per match in their last five fixtures, resulting in a total of 11 goals. Defensively, they’ve been robust, conceding only 0.80 goals per game and maintaining two clean sheets. However, their away form remains a concern, with just two wins from their last five away matches, indicating a win ratio of 40%.

Swansea Suspensions & Injuries

Swansea will be facing some challenges in their upcoming match against Derby due to a few key injuries. Notably, Adam Idah, who is suffering from a hamstring injury, and Zeidane Inoussa, with a back injury, are both expected to return by late February 2026. Their absence could impact Swansea’s attacking options and overall fluidity in the forward line. Additionally, Melker Widell is doubtful due to a knock injury, which may affect their midfield depth.

The absence of Adam Idah in particular might prompt tactical adjustments from coach Vítor Matos. Swansea may need to rely more heavily on Zan Vipotnik in the forward position to fill the gap left by Idah. This change could alter their attacking dynamics, potentially impacting their ability to penetrate Derby’s defence.

Swansea’s midfield may also see some reshuffling due to Widell’s uncertain status. With Ronald Pereira and Gonçalo Franco likely to be key figures in the midfield, Swansea will need to maintain their composure and creativity to support the forward line effectively.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Adam Idah	Hamstring Injury	Late February 2026
Zeidane Inoussa	Back Injury	Late February 2026
Melker Widell	Knock	Doubtful

Swansea Key Players

Swansea’s top scorer Zan Vipotnik will be pivotal in their upcoming clash against Derby, having found the net 15 times this season. Vipotnik’s clinical finishing and intelligent positioning make him a constant threat to any defence, and his ability to capitalise on chances will be crucial for Swansea’s attacking strategy. Supporting him in the forward line, players like Liam Cullen and Gustavo Nunes in midfield will be essential in providing the creativity and service Vipotnik needs to thrive.

Defensively, Ben Cabango and Cameron Burgess form a solid partnership at the back, tasked with shutting down Derby’s offensive efforts. Cabango’s strength in aerial duels and Burgess’s tackling prowess will be vital in maintaining a clean sheet. In midfield, Marko Stamenic’s ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively can help Swansea dominate possession and transition smoothly from defence to attack.

Expected line-up for Swansea

• Goalkeeper: Lawrence Vigouroux
• Defenders: Ethan Galbraith, Ben Cabango, Cameron Burgess, Josh Tymon
• Midfielders: Marko Stamenic, Ronald, Gonçalo Franco, Liam Cullen, Gustavo Nunes
• Forward: Zan Vipotnik

Overall, these key players will shape Swansea’s tactical approach, focusing on a balance between solid defensive organisation and potent attacking play. The interplay between these standout performers will be instrumental in dictating the game’s flow and Swansea’s chances of success.

Swansea Tactics and Formation

Swansea Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Typically 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Zan Vipotnik
• Midfield Pivot: Marko Stamenic and Gonçalo Franco
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High possession play and efficient wing utilisation.

Swansea City frequently deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows them to maintain a strong midfield presence while supporting their attacking endeavours. With Marko Stamenic and Gonçalo Franco anchoring the midfield, they ensure a balance between defensive coverage and forward momentum. Liam Cullen, playing as an attacking midfielder, links the play between midfielders and the forward line, adding creativity.

Defensively, Swansea’s backline, featuring Ethan Galbraith and Ben Cabango, has contributed to their recent defensive successes, including two clean sheets in their last five matches. This defensive solidity is crucial, particularly when absorbing pressure from opposing teams.

Offensively, Swansea’s strategy hinges on high possession play, with their recent match against Sheffield Wednesday showcasing their ability to dominate possession at 61%. Zan Vipotnik, with 15 goals this season, remains a pivotal figure in their attack, supported by wingers like Gustavo Nunes, who exploit spaces on the flanks.

Derby vs Swansea Head-to-Head Record

In their last 17 head-to-head encounters, Swansea have a slight edge with six wins compared to Derby’s five, while six matches ended in a draw. Their most recent clash saw Derby snatch a 2-1 victory away at Swansea in the Championship, a result that might give them a psychological boost heading into this fixture.

The last time Derby hosted Swansea at Pride Park in the Championship, it ended in a goalless draw back in October 2021. Derby will be keen to improve on that result, especially with both teams having scored an equal number of goals in their head-to-head history.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Swansea City	Derby County	1 – 2	Championship	2025-11-25
Swansea City	Derby County	1 – 0	Championship	2025-04-05
Derby County	Swansea City	1 – 2	Championship	2024-11-27
Swansea City	Derby County	2 – 1	Championship	2022-04-09
Derby County	Swansea City	0 – 0	Championship	2021-10-02