Gremio vs. Sao Paulo Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 16 October 2025

As we head into Round 28 of Serie A, Gremio will host Sao Paulo in what promises to be a tightly contested showdown. Gremio sits in 13th place with 33 points, while Sao Paulo is in 8th with 38 points.

Both teams have had their share of struggles lately. Gremio has shown inconsistency with a mixed bag of results (Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Loss), while Sao Paulo hasn’t had a smooth run either, reflected in their recent form (Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss). Injuries and suspensions will play a significant role for both sides; Gremio is missing key players like Martin Braithwaite and Walter Kannemann, whereas Sao Paulo will be without Pablo Maia due to suspension.

Our recommendation is to bet on a draw given the favorable odds. Both teams have struggled to maintain consistent form, and this clash is expected to be a tight affair without a clear winner.

Stay tuned for what is bound to be an intriguing fixture with plenty on the line.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Betting tip

The recommended bet for this matchup is a draw. This suggestion is driven by several factors:

• Favorable Odds: With the odds of a draw standing at 3.03, the value is excellent.
• Recent Form: Both teams have struggled to find consistent form recently, making it difficult to favor one side decisively.
• Injuries & Suspensions: Key players from both sides are missing, balancing the scales further.

These factors together suggest a tightly contested match, with neither side having a clear advantage. Betting on a draw offers great value given the current dynamics of both teams.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Odds

The odds for the upcoming Serie A clash between Gremio and Sao Paulo paint a picture of an evenly matched contest. Bookmakers have Sao Paulo as slight favorites but not by a wide margin. Here’s a quick snapshot of the current odds:

The slight edge towards Sao Paulo can be attributed to their higher league positioning and recent form, despite their own inconsistencies. However, with favorable odds for a draw, it indicates a balanced encounter.

Injuries and suspensions on both sides add to the unpredictability, making a draw a valuable betting option. The odds reflect the likelihood of a close contest where both teams could potentially cancel each other out.

Gremio Team Analysis

Gremio Recent Performance (Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Loss)

Gremio’s form in their last five matches has been a mixed bag, with a record of two wins, two draws, and one loss.

• Recent Form: WDWDL
• Last 5 Matches:
  • Red Bull Bragantino 1-0 Gremio (Loss)
  • Santos FC 1-1 Gremio (Draw)
  • Gremio 3-1 Vitoria (Win)
  • Gremio 1-1 Botafogo RJ (Draw)
  • Internacional 2-3 Gremio (Win)

In these matches, Gremio has averaged 1.60 goals per game but failed to keep a single clean sheet, showcasing both offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Their performance has been hindered by significant injuries and suspensions, affecting key areas of the squad. With players like Martin Braithwaite out for the season, Gremio has had to rely on other squad members to step up. However, the team’s sporadic form highlights the challenges they face in consistently delivering strong performances.

Gremio Key Players

Gremio will depend heavily on several key players to make an impact in this crucial match against Sao Paulo. Despite a string of injuries, Manuel Menezes will look towards his more consistent performers to lead the way.

• Martin Braithwaite: Although out for the season, Braithwaite remains the club’s top scorer with 6 goals.
• Cristian Pavon: Expected to take on additional responsibility, Pavon’s creativity and pace will be essential in breaking down Sao Paulo’s defense.
• Gabriel Grando: The reliable goalkeeper will be pivotal in keeping the opposition at bay, given Gremio’s defensive struggles lately.

Expected lineup for Gremio:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel Grando
• Defenders: Gustavo Martins, Erick Noriega, Wagner Leonardo, Lucas Esteves
• Midfielders: Dodi, Arthur, Alysson Edward, Edenilson, Cristian Pavon
• Forward: Carlos Vinícius

These players will need to step up to compensate for the absences of key contributors, making this an intriguing test of Gremio’s squad depth and resilience.

Gremio Suspensions & Injuries

Gremio heads into this clash with several significant absences that could impact their overall performance. The team is missing crucial players due to injuries and suspensions:

• Injuries:
  • Martin Braithwaite: Out for the season (Achilles tendon injury). His absence will be a big blow given he’s the top scorer.
  • Rodrigo Ely: Out until mid-December (Cruciate ligament injury).
  • Mathías Villasanti: Out for the season (Cruciate ligament injury).
  • Fabian Balbuena: Out until early December (Broken ankle).
  • Joao Pedro: Out for the season (Shoulder injury).
• Suspensions:
  • Walter Kannemann: Banned for 1 match (Red card).
  • André Henrique: Banned for 1 match (Yellow card accumulation).
  • Marlon: Banned for 1 match (Yellow card accumulation).

These absences will put extra pressure on the remaining squad to step up, particularly on the defensive side, where Gremio has struggled to keep clean sheets. Expect a reshuffled lineup as Mano Menezes navigates through these challenges.

Gremio Tactics and Formation

Gremio will likely adopt a formation that maximizes their remaining strengths despite several absences. Here’s a breakdown of their expected tactical setup:
Gremio Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Goalkeeper: Gabriel Grando
• Defensive Quartet: Gustavo Martins (RB), Erick Noriega (RCB), Wagner Leonardo (LCB), Lucas Esteves (LB)
• Midfield Pivot: Dodi and Arthur as the holding midfielders to provide defensive cover and transition play.
• Creative Trio: Alysson Edward (RW), Edenilson (CAM), Cristian Pavon (LW). This trio will be crucial for creating goal-scoring opportunities.
• Leading Striker: Carlos Vinícius up front, entrusted with the goal-scoring duties.

Notable Strategy:
Gremio will likely focus on using their width to exploit Sao Paulo’s defensive lapses. With the creative spark from Edenilson and the pace of Pavon on the wings, expect several attempts to stretch the defense and create scoring opportunities, while maintaining defensive solidity through the midfield pivot.

Sao Paulo Team Analysis

Sao Paulo Recent Performance (Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss)

Sao Paulo has had a rough patch in their recent Serie A outings, with a record of one win and four losses in their last five games.

• Recent Form: LLLWL
• Last 5 Matches:
  • Sao Paulo 2-3 Palmeiras (Loss)
  • Fortaleza 0-2 Sao Paulo (Win)
  • Sao Paulo 0-1 Ceara (Loss)
  • Sao Paulo 0-1 LDU de Quito (Loss) – Copa Libertadores
  • Santos FC 1-0 Sao Paulo (Loss)

During these matches, Sao Paulo has averaged only 0.80 goals per game and managed just one clean sheet, highlighting their struggles in both offense and defense. Coach Hernán Crespo will need to find a way to bolster the team’s performance, especially in their attacking department, to stand a chance against Gremio. Despite their recent form, Sao Paulo’s position in the league speaks of their potential, and they will be looking to turn things around.

Sao Paulo Key Players

Sao Paulo will need their key players to step up if they want to secure a win against Gremio. Here are some of the crucial players to watch out for:

• Luciano Neves: As the team’s top scorer with 6 goals this season, Luciano will be leading the attacking front.
• Rafael: The goalkeeper will play a vital role in keeping Gremio’s offensive efforts at bay.
• Cedric Soares: His experience and defensive capabilities on the right wing will be essential in thwarting Gremio’s attacks.

Expected lineup for Sao Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino
• Midfielders: Cedric Soares, Damián Bobadilla, Marcos Antonio, Alisson, Enzo Díaz
• Forwards: Luciano, Aldemir Ferreira

These players will have to bring their A-game to counter Gremio’s strengths, and several individual battles on the pitch will likely influence the outcome.

Sao Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

Sao Paulo faces several injury woes and suspensions that could impact their performance against Gremio:

• Injuries:
  • Jonathan Calleri: Out for the season (Cruciate ligament injury).
  • Ryan Francisco: Out for the season (Cruciate ligament injury).
  • André Silva: Out for the season (Cruciate ligament injury).
  • Luan Santos: Expected return late October (Thigh injury).
  • Rafael Toloi: Expected return late October (Thigh injury).
  • Oscar: Expected return early November (Calf injury).
• Suspensions:
  • Pablo Maia: Banned for 1 match (Yellow card accumulation).

These absences mean that Coach Hernán Crespo will need to make key adjustments to the lineup. The injuries, particularly those in attack, could see Sao Paulo struggle to find the back of the net, putting pressure on their defense to hold strong. This balance of injuries and suspensions might make it challenging for Sao Paulo to field their strongest eleven.

Sao Paulo Tactics and Formation

Sao Paulo will look to set themselves up in a formation that balances both their attacking and defensive needs, especially given their recent struggles and injuries.
Sao Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-1-2
• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defensive Trio: Alan Franco (RCB), Robert Arboleda (CB), Sabino (LCB)
• Midfield Four: Cedric Soares (RM), Damián Bobadilla (RCM), Marcos Antonio (CM), Alisson (LCM), Enzo Díaz (LM)
• Attacking Midfielder: Edenilson, acting as the creative link between midfield and attack
• Forwards: Luciano Neves and Aldemir Ferreira will spearhead the attack, aiming to break Gremio’s defensive lines.

Notable Strategy:
The 3-4-1-2 formation allows Sao Paulo to be flexible and adaptive, providing defensive solidity with a three-man backline while utilizing wing-backs to offer width. The presence of Luciano Neves up front means Sao Paulo will aim to exploit Gremio’s vulnerability at the back. The focus will likely be on maintaining a compact defense and making the most of counter-attacking opportunities, given their recent issues in both scoring and keeping clean sheets.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head Statistics

In their last five encounters, there has been quite a bit of back and forth between Gremio and Sao Paulo. Here’s a brief recap:

• 18 May 2025: Sao Paulo edged out Gremio 2-1 in a hard-fought battle.
• 1 December 2024: Gremio turned the tables and won 2-1 on their home turf.
• 17 July 2024: Sao Paulo scraped by with a 1-0 victory.
• 21 October 2023: Sao Paulo dominated Gremio 3-0.
• 4 June 2023: Gremio secured a 2-1 win against Sao Paulo.

These results highlight how evenly matched these teams can be, with each side having tasted both victory and defeat. The trend indicates a tightly contested match each time these two teams meet, often without a clear dominant side. This history points towards another competitive clash, making a draw a sensible betting option. Expect no less intensity this time around with both teams eyeing valuable points in their Serie A campaign.

Odds accurate as of 14/10/2025 23:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.