Plymouth vs. Leeds Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 3 May 2025 - bettingexpert
As the Championship season reaches its thrilling climax, Plymouth Argyle host title-chasing Leeds United at Home Park on 3 May 2025 at 12:30. Despite being at opposite ends of the table, this match holds significant weight for both sides.
Plymouth sits second from the bottom in 23rd place with 46 points. Their last five matches have seen a mixed bag of results, registering three wins and two losses, illustrating a late but spirited fight for survival. Leeds United, on the other hand, are atop the league with 97 points and already assured of promotion to the Premier League. With Daniel Farke’s side in stellar form, winning their last five games, they will be eager to end the season on a high.
Expected to shine for Plymouth are Ryan Hardie, their top scorer with 10 goals, and Muhamed Tijani up front. However, defensive frailties, coupled with injuries to key players like Brendan Galloway and Matthew Sorinola, have plagued them, often conceding two goals on average per match.
In contrast, Leeds’ formidable defence, illustrated by four clean sheets in their last five games, and a prolific attack led by Joel Piroe, who has netted 19 goals, underline their dominance this season. Leeds will look to reach the 100-point milestone amidst speculation around Jamie Vardy possibly joining their ranks for the Premier League challenge next season.
Our prediction points to a high-scoring affair, with a recommended bet on over 1.5 goals in the first half. Considering Plymouth’s recent form and Leeds’ determined quest for the title, both teams are expected to score, but Leeds seem the heavy favourites to clinch victory.
Stay tuned for what promises to be an engaging encounter to cap off the Championship campaign.
Plymouth vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tip
| Plymouth vs Leeds Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half | 1.80 |
- Leeds have a strong attacking form, averaging 2.8 goals over their last 5 games.
- Plymouth usually concedes 2 goals per match, indicating defensive challenges.
- Both teams are fighting for important outcomes: Plymouth for survival, Leeds for the title, leading to likely aggressive play.
Expect a dynamic and thrilling first half where early goals set the tempo for an exciting match.
Plymouth vs Leeds Odds
Here’s a look at the betting odds for this pivotal Championship clash:
| Plymouth vs Leeds Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Plymouth | 9.72 |
| Draw | 5.66 |
| Leeds | 1.27 |
Leeds are the heavy favourites to win this match according to the bookmakers, which isn’t surprising given their top-of-the-table status and recent promotion to the Premier League.
Plymouth, despite a late-season surge, still faces an uphill battle with high odds against them.
The draw seems an enticing bet but Leeds’ formidable form makes them a safer choice.
Expect Leeds to come out strong, with Plymouth needing a miracle to overturn these odds.
Plymouth Team Analysis
Plymouth Recent Performance
Plymouth’s recent form has been a mixed bag, featuring three wins and two losses in their last five matches.
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | Plymouth | 2025-04-26 | Championship | 1-2 (Win) |
| Plymouth | Coventry | 2025-04-21 | Championship | 3-1 (Win) |
| Middlesbrough | Plymouth | 2025-04-18 | Championship | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Plymouth | Sheffield United | 2025-04-12 | Championship | 2-1 (Win) |
| Swansea | Plymouth | 2025-04-09 | Championship | 3-0 (Loss) |
The Pilgrims, while struggling at the bottom of the table, have shown some resilience with three victories out of their last four games. They have managed to score an average of 1.60 goals per game in their last five matches, but defensively, they have not kept a single clean sheet in the same period, conceding on average 2 goals per match throughout the season.
Plymouth has shown a capacity to find the back of the net, scoring in 86% of their home games this season. Despite their late push in form, injuries to key players such as Brendan Galloway and Matthew Sorinola could hinder their effort against a formidable Leeds side.
Plymouth Key Players
Plymouth’s standout player this season has been their top scorer Ryan Hardie, who has netted 10 goals. His attacking prowess will be crucial as they aim to breach Leeds’ solid defence, which has kept four clean sheets in their last five matches.
Midfielder Bali Mumba has been instrumental on the flanks, offering both pace and creativity that could trouble Leeds’ full-backs. Adam Randell in the midfield will also play a pivotal role in orchestrating plays and linking defence to attack.
Given multiple injuries in their defensive lineup, Plymouth will rely heavily on the experience of Victor Palsson and the youthful energy of Nathanael Ogbeta.
Expected lineup for Plymouth:
- Goalkeeper: Conor Hazard
- Defenders: Victor Palsson, Maksym Taloverov, Nathanael Ogbeta
- Midfielders: Kornel Szucs, Darko Gyabi, Adam Randell, Bali Mumba
- Attackers: Ryan Hardie, Mustapha Bundu, Muhamed Tijani
Plymouth Suspensions & Injuries
Plymouth is dealing with several injuries that could significantly impact their lineup against Leeds. Key defenders like Brendan Galloway and Nikola Katic are ruled out, making their backline particularly vulnerable. Additionally, the absence of Matthew Sorinola in midfield further limits their options.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Galloway | Hip injury | Out for season |
| Matthew Sorinola | Thigh injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Julio Pleguezuelo | Knock injury | Few days |
| Nikola Katic | Muscle injury | Mid May 2025 |
These injuries put extra pressure on the rest of the squad to step up, especially in defence, where the team has already struggled to keep clean sheets.
Plymouth Tactics and Formation
Plymouth Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Muhamed Tijani
- Midfielders: Kornel Szucs, Darko Gyabi, Adam Randell, Bali Mumba
- Defensive Setup: Victor Palsson, Maksym Taloverov, Nathanael Ogbeta
Plymouth relies heavily on their midfield to transition quickly from defence to attack. Ryan Hardie and Mustapha Bundu provide the creative spark in the attacking midfield roles, supporting Tijani up front.
Despite their 3-4-2-1 formation, injuries to key defenders like Brendan Galloway and Nikola Katic could force Miron Muslic to make tactical adjustments. Their notable strategy includes scoring late, as they’ve netted goals in 86% of home matches.
Plymouth Tactics and Formation (with tables and stats):
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Muhamed Tijani
- Midfielders: Kornel Szucs, Darko Gyabi, Adam Randell, Bali Mumba
- Defensive Setup: Victor Palsson, Maksym Taloverov, Nathanael Ogbeta
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Conor Hazard |
| Right Centre Back | Victor Palsson |
| Centre Back | Maksym Taloverov |
| Left Centre Back | Nathanael Ogbeta |
| Right Midfielder | Kornel Szucs |
| Right Central Mid | Darko Gyabi |
| Left Central Mid | Adam Randell |
| Left Midfielder | Bali Mumba |
| Right Attacking Mid | Ryan Hardie |
| Left Attacking Mid | Mustapha Bundu |
| Centre Forward | Muhamed Tijani |
The team’s emphasis on solid midfield play and quick transitions could exploit Leeds’ defence, especially given their tendency to concede more goals in the 76-90 minute interval.
Leeds Team Analysis
Recent Performance
Leeds United have been in impressive form recently, winning their last five matches with a combined score of 14-2. They have kept four clean sheets in these games and have been scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match in their last five outings. This exemplary performance sees them sitting at the top of the Championship table with 97 points. With a solid defensive setup and a potent attack led by top scorer Joel Piroe, Leeds will be looking to continue their winning streak.
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | Bristol City | 2025-04-28 | Championship | 4-0 (Win) |
| Leeds | Stoke | 2025-04-21 | Championship | 6-0 (Win) |
| Oxford | Leeds | 2025-04-18 | Championship | 0-1 (Win) |
| Leeds | Preston | 2025-04-12 | Championship | 2-1 (Win) |
| Middlesbrough | Leeds | 2025-04-08 | Championship | 0-1 (Win) |
Leeds’ strong form is bolstered by their organised defence, which only concedes an average of 0.7 goals per game over the season. This makes them tough to break down, adding to their potential as favourites for this match against Plymouth.
Leeds Key Players
Leeds United have a wealth of key players who could influence the outcome of this match. Leading the attack is Joel Piroe, the top scorer with an impressive 19 goals this season. His ability to find the back of the net consistently makes him a constant threat to any defence.
The midfield will be anchored by the likes of Wilfried Gnonto and Ao Tanaka, who both play crucial roles in breaking up opposition play and initiating attacks. Manor Solomon on the left wing and Brenden Aaronson on the right wing provide creative sparks that can open up defences.
Expected lineup for Leeds:
- Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow
- Defenders: Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu, Junior Firpo
- Midfielders: Wilfried Gnonto, Ao Tanaka, Ilia Gruev, Brenden Aaronson, Manor Solomon
- Forward: Joel Piroe
Key individual battles to watch will be Joel Piroe against Plymouth’s central defenders and Brenden Aaronson against their full-backs.
Leeds Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Pascal Struijk | Foot injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Joe Rothwell | Calf injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Daniel James | Hamstring injury | Doubtful |
Leeds United are facing a few injury concerns heading into this match. Pascal Struijk and Joe Rothwell are both expected to be out until mid-May 2025. Daniel James is doubtful due to a hamstring injury, which could affect their attacking options off the bench.
These absences could slightly impact the depth in their squad, but considering Leeds’ recent form and their strong starting XI, they should still be favorites to win this match comfortably.
Leeds Tactics and Formation
Leeds United Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow, providing stability at the back.
- Defensive Line: Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Ethan Ampadu, Junior Firpo. This back line has been instrumental in keeping four clean sheets in their last five games.
- Midfield Duo: Wilfried Gnonto and Ao Tanaka sit deep to break up opposition play and initiate attacks.
- Attacking Midfield Trio: Brenden Aaronson, Ilia Gruev, and Manor Solomon provide creativity and attacking options.
- Key Forward: Joel Piroe, the top scorer with 19 goals.
Leeds’ strategy revolves around a solid defence and a potent attack, aiming to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities. Their formation allows for both defensive solidity and attacking flair, a key reason behind their top spot in the league.
Plymouth vs Leeds Head-to-Head Statistics
The teams have faced off in several recent encounters, providing a rich context for their upcoming clash. Here’s a quick look at their last five meetings:
| Plymouth | Leeds | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | Plymouth | 2024-11-02 | Championship | 3-0 (Loss) |
| Plymouth | Leeds | 2024-02-17 | Championship | 0-2 (Loss) |
| Plymouth | Leeds | 2024-02-06 | FA Cup | 1-1 (Extra time: 0-3 Loss) |
| Leeds | Plymouth | 2024-01-27 | FA Cup | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Leeds | Plymouth | 2023-11-11 | Championship | 2-1 (Loss) |
Plymouth have struggled against Leeds, managing only one draw in the last five meetings while Leeds have won three times in regulation and once in extra time.
These results highlight the strong form Leeds have typically shown against Plymouth, heading into their final league clash of the season.
Odds accurate as of 1 May 2025 12:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
