RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 31 January

RB Leipzig will host Mainz 05 at the Red Bull Arena Leipzig on Saturday, 31 January, in what promises to be an intriguing Bundesliga clash. This matchup features RB Leipzig, renowned for their attacking prowess and solid home performances, taking on Mainz 05, who are eager to climb the league table with a strong away showing. The Red Bull Arena Leipzig will set the stage for this encounter, where both teams aim to secure valuable points in the Bundesliga standings.

RB Leipzig have been formidable at home, making the Red Bull Arena Leipzig a fortress in the Bundesliga. Meanwhile, Mainz 05 will be looking to upset the odds and claim a crucial away victory. This match is significant as both sides strive to improve their league positions, with RB Leipzig aiming to consolidate their spot near the top, while Mainz 05 seek to distance themselves from the lower end of the table. Fans can expect a competitive and tactical battle on Saturday.

RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
RB Leipzig to Win	1.53

RB Leipzig come into this match with a strong home record and recent form, including a solid 2-1 victory over Freiburg. Considering Mainz 05’s struggles both defensively and offensively, backing Leipzig to win appears to be a favourable bet.

• RB Leipzig have scored first in 79% of their matches this season, showing their ability to take the lead early.
• Mainz 05 concede an average of 1.6 goals per game, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
• Leipzig have scored in seven consecutive matches, indicating a consistent attacking threat.

Betting Odds

RB Leipzig are clear favourites for this Bundesliga clash at the Red Bull Arena, with betting odds reflecting their strong home record. Priced at 1.53, Leipzig are expected to dominate, but Mainz 05, at 5.4, could offer a tempting upset for those backing the underdog.

Betting Tip	Odds
RB Leipzig to win	1.53
Draw	4.48
Mainz 05 to win	5.4

The draw is priced at 4.48, suggesting it is not out of the question, especially if Mainz can hold their defensive line. For those considering goal markets, the over 2.5 goals option is worth a look, given Leipzig’s attacking prowess.

RB Leipzig Analysis & Past Performance

RB Leipzig’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with their last five matches resulting in two wins, two losses, and a draw. Notably, they secured a commanding 3-0 victory against FC Heidenheim, but suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich. This fluctuation in performance highlights their current struggle for consistency.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
St. Pauli	RB Leipzig	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	27 Jan 2026
FC Heidenheim	RB Leipzig	0 – 3 (Win)	Bundesliga	24 Jan 2026
RB Leipzig	Bayern Munich	1 – 5 (Loss)	Bundesliga	17 Jan 2026
RB Leipzig	Freiburg	2 – 0 (Win)	Bundesliga	14 Jan 2026
RB Leipzig	Bayer Leverkusen	1 – 3 (Loss)	Bundesliga	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Despite the mixed results, RB Leipzig have demonstrated attacking prowess, averaging 1.60 goals per game over their last five fixtures. Defensively, however, they have been less solid, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per match. They have managed to keep two clean sheets in this period, suggesting occasional defensive resilience.

Home vs Away Performance:
At home, Leipzig have been more dominant, winning eight of their last ten home games, with a win ratio of 0.80. Their attacking strength is evident, having scored in nine of these matches. However, their defence has been breached in half of these outings, highlighting a vulnerability that needs addressing.

Current Standings:

• DWLWL

Currently sitting in 4th place in the Bundesliga with 36 points, Leipzig’s performance has been bolstered by key contributions from top scorer Yán Diomandé, who has netted seven times this season. Their ability to maintain pressure and convert chances will be crucial as they aim to solidify their position in the league.

RB Leipzig Suspensions & Injuries

RB Leipzig face a few challenges in terms of player availability due to injuries and suspensions. Christoph Baumgartner, a key figure in their midfield, is suspended for the upcoming match due to accumulated yellow cards. His absence will likely necessitate a tactical reshuffle, with Nicolas Seiwald potentially stepping up to fill the creative void left in the midfield.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Christoph Baumgartner	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

Injury-wise, RB Leipzig will be without Castello Lukeba and Assan Ouédraogo, both sidelined with knee injuries. Lukeba’s absence in defence could force Marco Rose to rely more heavily on El Chadaille Bitshiabu to maintain defensive solidity. Meanwhile, Ouédraogo’s absence in midfield might offer an opportunity for a younger player to make an impression.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Viggo Gebel	Cruciate ligament injury	Early July 2026
Assan Ouédraogo	Knee injury	Late March 2026
Castello Lukeba	Knee injury	Mid March 2026

The long-term injury of Viggo Gebel, who is dealing with a cruciate ligament issue, continues to limit Leipzig’s options. While his absence might not impact the immediate tactical setup, it does reduce overall squad depth, which could be a concern as the season progresses. These absences may influence betting markets, as Leipzig’s squad depth is tested against Mainz 05.

RB Leipzig Key Players

RB Leipzig’s top scorer, Yán Diomandé, has been instrumental in their attacking play this season, netting seven goals. Diomandé’s pace and clinical finishing make him a constant threat to opposition defences. Positioned as a forward, his ability to exploit spaces and convert chances will be vital against Mainz 05. Alongside Diomandé, Rômulo Cruz and Antonio Nusa are expected to provide additional firepower, with Cruz’s physicality and Nusa’s agility complementing Diomandé’s style.

Nicolas Seiwald in midfield is crucial for Leipzig’s transitional play, offering both defensive solidity and creative distribution. His partnership with Xaver Schlager stabilises the midfield, allowing Leipzig to control the game tempo. In defence, Willi Orban’s leadership and aerial prowess are key to maintaining a solid backline, while Ridle Baku’s versatility adds depth to their defensive strategy.

Expected lineup for RB Leipzig:

• Goalkeeper: Péter Gulácsi
• Defenders: Ridle Baku, Willi Orban, David Raum, El Chadaille Bitshiabu
• Midfielders: Xaver Schlager, Nicolas Seiwald, Christoph Baumgartner
• Forwards: Rômulo Cruz, Antonio Nusa, Yán Diomandé

RB Leipzig Tactics and Formation

RB Leipzig Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Yán Diomandé
• Midfield Engine: Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald
• Defensive Solidity: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and fluid attacking transitions.

RB Leipzig’s 4-3-3 formation offers a balanced approach, allowing them to exert control in midfield while maintaining an attacking threat. With Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald orchestrating the central areas, Leipzig can efficiently transition from defence to attack. Christoph Baumgartner adds creativity and forward thrust from midfield.

Defensively, the backline is marshalled by Willi Orban, providing leadership alongside Ridle Baku and David Raum. The inclusion of El Chadaille Bitshiabu adds youthful energy and dynamism to the defence, which has managed two clean sheets in their last five outings.

Offensively, RB Leipzig rely heavily on the attacking prowess of Yán Diomandé, who is their top scorer this season. The high pressing system, coupled with the pace of forwards Antonio Nusa and Rômulo Cruz, allows them to capitalise on opposition errors and execute swift counterattacks.

Mainz 05 Analysis & Past Performance

Mainz 05 have displayed a mixed run of results recently, showcasing their resilience with two wins, two draws, and a single loss in their last five outings. Notably, their latest victory came against Wolfsburg with a commanding 3-1 scoreline, indicating their potential to capitalise on home advantage.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Mainz 05	Wolfsburg	3 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	24 Jan, 2026
FC Köln	Mainz 05	2 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	17 Jan, 2026
Mainz 05	FC Heidenheim	2 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	13 Jan, 2026
Union Berlin	Mainz 05	2 – 2 (Draw)	Bundesliga	10 Jan, 2026
Mainz 05	St. Pauli	0 – 0 (Draw)	Bundesliga	21 Dec, 2025

Recent Form:

• WLWDD

Despite their recent home triumphs, Mainz 05’s away form remains a significant concern. They have failed to register a win in their last five away matches, drawing three and losing two. With an average of 1.60 goals scored per game in their last five fixtures, Mainz’s attack has shown promise, but their defence has been less robust, conceding an average of 1.20 goals per match. Their ability to score in 80% of these games suggests offensive potential, yet they have only managed one clean sheet. The challenge for Mainz will be to translate their home form into away success, as they currently sit in 16th position with 15 points, underscoring the need for improvement in their away performances to climb the Bundesliga standings.

Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries

Mainz 05 will miss several key players due to injuries, affecting their squad depth and tactical flexibility. Robin Zentner remains sidelined with a groin injury, which means Daniel Batz continues in goal. Anthony Caci and Andreas Hanche-Olsen’s absence in defence will force a reshuffle, likely pushing Lennard Maloney into a starting role. The midfield is further weakened by the suspension of Dominik Kohr, out due to an accumulation of yellow cards, impacting their ability to control the game in the centre of the park.

Player	Reason for Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Dominik Kohr	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

The injuries to Maxim Dal and Nikolas Veratschnig leave Mainz 05 with fewer options on the bench, potentially affecting their ability to adapt during the match. Arnaud Nordin’s muscle injury also removes a dynamic attacking option, which could limit Mainz’s offensive threats against RB Leipzig.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Maxim Dal	Cruciate ligament injury	Mid-February 2026
Anthony Caci	Tendon injury	Early February 2026
Robin Zentner	Groin injury	Early February 2026
Andreas Hanche-Olsen	Muscle injury	Early February 2026
Nikolas Veratschnig	Hamstring injury	Mid-February 2026
Arnaud Nordin	Muscle injury	Mid-February 2026

Given these absences, Mainz 05’s coach Urs Fischer may opt for a more conservative approach, emphasising defensive solidity over attacking flair. The reduced squad depth and lack of experienced substitutes could influence betting odds, with RB Leipzig likely seen as favourites given Mainz’s current predicament.

Mainz 05 Key Players

Nadiem Amiri is the top scorer for Mainz 05 this season, having netted six goals. His role as a creative midfielder allows him to orchestrate play and exploit defensive gaps with his vision and precision. Amiri’s ability to score and assist makes him a dual threat and an essential part of Mainz’s attacking strategy. His partnership with forwards Benedict Hollerbach and Phillip Tietz, who are set to lead the line, could be pivotal in breaking down RB Leipzig’s defence.

The midfield is further strengthened by Jae-sung Lee, whose dynamic play and work rate provide both defensive cover and offensive support. In defence, Stefan Posch and Stefan Bell form a solid partnership, with their experience and tactical awareness providing stability at the back. Their ability to read the game and make crucial interceptions will be critical in countering Leipzig’s attacking prowess.

Expected lineup for Mainz 05

• Goalkeeper: Daniel Batz
• Defence: Stefan Posch, Stefan Bell, Lennard Maloney
• Midfield: Danny da Costa, Paul Nebel, Kaishu Sano, Jae-sung Lee, Silvan Widmer
• Forward: Benedict Hollerbach, Phillip Tietz

Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation

Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Benedict Hollerbach
• Midfield Engine: Jae-sung Lee
• Defensive Structure: Three centre-backs, including Stefan Posch and Stefan Bell
• Notable Strategy: Utilising wing-backs for width and midfield dominance.

Mainz 05’s 3-5-2 formation is designed to enhance midfield control and provide width through wing-backs Danny da Costa and Silvan Widmer. Jae-sung Lee plays a pivotal role in orchestrating play from midfield, offering both defensive cover and attacking impetus. The absence of Dominik Kohr in midfield, replaced by Lennard Maloney, may affect their defensive stability.

Defensively, the trio of Stefan Posch, Stefan Bell, and Lennard Maloney must maintain cohesion to counter Leipzig’s attacking threats. In their last match against Wolfsburg, Mainz conceded only once, highlighting their potential for defensive resilience.

Offensively, Mainz rely heavily on the partnership of Benedict Hollerbach and Phillip Tietz up front. Their ability to press high and exploit spaces behind defences is crucial, especially given Mainz’s recent away form, where they have struggled to secure wins.

RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head Record

RB Leipzig and Mainz 05 have faced each other 19 times, with Leipzig leading the head-to-head record with nine wins to Mainz’s six, and four matches ending in a draw. The last encounter saw Leipzig snatch a 1-0 victory away at Mainz in the Bundesliga, showcasing their ability to grind out results on the road.

In Bundesliga clashes, Leipzig have generally had the upper hand, especially at home. However, Mainz managed a surprise 2-1 win at the Red Bull Arena in their last visit, indicating they can be a tricky opponent.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Mainz 05	RB Leipzig	0 – 1	Bundesliga	2025-09-13
RB Leipzig	Mainz 05	1 – 2	Bundesliga	2025-03-01
Mainz 05	RB Leipzig	0 – 2	Bundesliga	2024-10-19
RB Leipzig	Mainz 05	0 – 0	Bundesliga	2024-03-30
Mainz 05	RB Leipzig	2 – 0	Bundesliga	2023-11-04