Nottingham Forest vs Man City Prediction
It could be a season to remember for Champions League chasing Nottingham Forest as we enter the business end of 2024/25. 4th in the table, three points clear of Chelsea in 6th with just five games to go, it really has been a fantastic season so far for the Tricky Trees. Two times winners of the FA Cup, they are just one game away from their first FA Cup Final since 1991. For Manchester City this is their last chance of silverware this season after an underwhelming campaign. Pep Guardiola has won this competition just twice compared to four League Cups to perhaps showcase how much harder it is to win the FA Cup.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City Prediction: Tricky Trees to keep it tight
England, FA Cup, Sunday, April 27th, 16:30 (UK)
The best place to start with how this game is likely to play out between these two tacticians in Nuno Espírito Santo and Pep Guardiola is to have a look at their two league meetings this season, in my opinion. At the beginning of December, Man City ran out 3-0 winners at the Etihad Stadium, with 67% possession, 17 shots, creating 2.41 expected goals, including four big chances. For Forest, they were restricted to just 33% possession, 12 shots, 1.04 expected goals with just one big chance. Take City away from their home comforts, and it was a similar story in terms of ball domination but no where near as much an open game. City had 69% possession and 14 shots, but created just 0.86 xG and no big chances. Forest’s output was similar to the away game, with 31% possession, nine shots, only 0.73 xG and also zero big chances but crucially they managed an 83rd minute goal to claim a 1-0 victory and it could be another tight meeting on Sunday.
In the Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest have the 3rd best defence in the league with just 39 goals conceded in 33 games (1.18 per-game) and going the opposite way have generated the 7th fewest expected goals with only 45.95 (1.39 per-game). As a result, it’s no surprise that 69% of their home games – or to put it another way, oppositions away games – have finished under 2.5 goals (11 of 16). These include matches against the big three in Liverpool (1-1), Arsenal (0-0) and Man City (aforementioned 1-0). By design, Forest are a low margin team – 22 of their 33 Premier League games this season have been decided by one or zero goals (67%).
For Man City, this will be there 30th visit to the new Wembley, where they have won 15 of their 29 visits so far in 90 minutes (52%), so it hasn’t been as straight forward as one would might expect for a team of their stature. In their nine previous FA Cup semi-finals here, six have finished Under 2.5 goals, with six of them also seeing both sides failing to score. There’s been a total of 19 goals scored at an average of just 2.11 per-game. Rather than back Under 2.5 goals, we can actually back Under 2.75 goals at a slightly shorter price but with the insurance that the only way our bet will completely lose is if there are four or more goals in the match.
- Nottingham Forest vs Man City Prediction: Under 2.75 goals
- Best Odds: 1.725
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Nottingham Forest vs Man City Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, April 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups
Nottingham Forest have very few injury concerns ahead of Sunday’s clash. Full-back Ola Aina has been out with a calf injury since the beginning of April and is rated doubtful, whilst Jota Silva has been out the last couple of weeks with a knock, though the Portuguese winger has only started five Premier League games this season. Man City look to be without all of Ederson (groin/hip), John Stones (thigh) and Nathan Ake (ankle) for at least the next few weeks. Erling Haaland (ankle) could make a return before the end of the season whilst Rodri remains a long-term absentee as he recovers from his knee injury sustained at the beginning of the season.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Williams, Milenkovic, Murillo, Moreno; Yates, Anderson; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
Man City possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Kovacic, Gundogan; Silva, De Bruyne, Savinho; Marmoush
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