Toulouse vs. Metz Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 19 October 2025

We have an intriguing Ligue 1 clash coming up as Toulouse face off against Metz at the Stadium Municipal this Sunday, 19 October 2025, with kick-off set for 16:15. The referee for the game will be Francois Letexier.

Toulouse, the bookmaker favorites with odds of 1.59 to win, are sitting 9th in the league with 10 points. They’ll be looking to build on their recent form, having picked up a strong win against Lyon in their last outing. Their attacking prowess, showcasing an average of 1.60 goals scored in the last five games, will be vital.

Meanwhile, Metz are struggling, languishing at the bottom of the table in 18th position with just 2 points. They’ve been shipping goals at an alarming rate, conceding 2.1 goals per game on average. Manager Stéphane Le Mignan will have a tough task turning their fortunes around.

Our match tips recommend a bet on Toulouse with a -2.50 Asian Handicap, considering Metz’s defensive issues and Toulouse’s stronger home form. You can expect a dominant performance from the home side with a potential scoreline of 3–0 or 4–1. This game promises to be an important narrative in the Ligue 1 season, especially for Toulouse as they aim to climb the standings.

Toulouse vs Metz Prediction & Betting Tip

Toulouse -2.50 (AH) is our recommended pick for this match. Let’s delve into why:

• Strong Home Form & Attack: Toulouse have showcased great strength at home, consistently scoring, with an average of 1.60 goals in their last 5 games.
• Metz’s Defensive Struggles: Metz have found it hard to keep opponents at bay, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match. Their defense has been particularly vulnerable in the latter parts of matches.
• Statistical Edge: Historically, Toulouse have dominated this fixture, winning 3 out of the last 5 encounters. Odds and form hugely favor Toulouse, making the -2.50 Asian Handicap a solid bet.

Expect a dominant performance from Toulouse, potentially resulting in a 3-0 or 4-1 victory.

Toulouse vs Metz Odds

With Toulouse and Metz gearing up for their Ligue 1 clash, the bookmakers clearly favor the home side. Toulouse, sitting 9th in the league, have shown decent form, while Metz have struggled significantly, occupying the last spot on the table.

Here’s how the odds line up:

Toulouse’s odds of 1.59 reflect their strong home form and superior league position. The draw, at 3.99, suggests that an evenly matched game is less expected. Metz’s lengthy odds of 5.60 mirror their defensive woes and poor form.

A dominating performance from Toulouse is anticipated, making them firm favorites in this fixture.

Toulouse Team Analysis

Toulouse Recent Performance

Recent Form: LLLDW

In their last five games, Toulouse have shown a mixed bag of results:

• Lyon 1-2 Toulouse
• Toulouse 2-2 Nantes
• Auxerre 1-0 Toulouse
• Lille 2-1 Toulouse
• Toulouse 3-6 Paris Saint-Germain

Despite this, Toulouse have managed to find the net consistently, scoring an average of 1.60 goals across these games. However, defensive frailties have been evident as they failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five outings.

Their recent games have exposed their need for a tighter defense, particularly evident in the high-scoring match against PSG. Toulouse will rely on their attacking unit, led by Frank Magri, to secure a solid performance at home against Metz.

Toulouse Key Players

Toulouse will be banking on several key players to shine in their clash against Metz:

• Frank Magri: The top scorer for Toulouse with 3 goals this season. His ability to find the net will be crucial.
• Mario Sauer and Cristian Casseres Jr.: Expected to control the midfield and provide creative outlets.
• Guillaume Restes: The goalkeeper will need to be on top form to secure that elusive clean sheet.

The expected lineup for Toulouse:

• Goalkeeper: Guillaume Restes
• Defenders: Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell, Rasmus Nicolaisen
• Midfielders: Djibril Sidibe, Mario Sauer, Cristian Casseres Jr., Warren Kamanzi
• Forwards: Aron Doennum, Frank Magri, Yann Gboho

Keep an eye on the battle between Toulouse’s attackers and Metz’s defense, where Magri’s prowess will be tested against Jean-Philippe Gbamin’s defending.

Toulouse Suspensions & Injuries

Toulouse will be without the services of two key players due to injuries:

• Niklas Schmidt: Out with a cruciate ligament injury. His return is expected in late October 2025.
• Rafik Messali: Sidelined with an ankle injury, also anticipated to return in late October 2025.

The absence of Schmidt and Messali will undoubtedly impact Toulouse’s lineup, especially in the midfield where Schmidt’s creativity and Messali’s defensive capabilities will be missed.

Carles Martínez will need to rely on his squad depth to fill these gaps. The likes of Mario Sauer and Cristian Casseres Jr. will be key in maintaining the stability and creativity in the midfield.

Toulouse Tactics and Formation

Toulouse Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Frank Magri
• Midfield Stability: Mario Sauer, Cristian Casseres Jr.
• Defensive Setup: Rasmus Nicolaisen, Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell

Toulouse typically employ a 3-4-3 formation, emphasizing a balanced approach between attack and defense. Frank Magri, their top scorer, leads the attack, supported by Yann Gboho and Aron Doennum on the flanks, providing pace and width. The midfield, anchored by Mario Sauer and Cristian Casseres Jr., aims to control possession and transition quickly.

Defensively, the trio of Nicolaisen, McKenzie, and Cresswell will be tasked with maintaining a solid backline. Toulouse’s strategy often includes exploiting the width provided by wing-backs Djibril Sidibe and Warren Kamanzi to deliver crosses and stretch the opponent’s defense. This setup allows them to create numerous scoring opportunities, as reflected in their consistent goal-scoring record.

Metz Team Analysis

Metz Recent Performance

Recent Form: LDLDL

In their last five Ligue 1 matches, Metz have struggled to find their footing:

• Metz 0-3 Marseille
• Metz 0-0 Le Havre
• Monaco 5-2 Metz
• Metz 1-1 Angers
• Paris FC 3-2 Metz

During this period, Metz have managed to secure only 2 points. Their offensive output has been modest, averaging just 1.00 goal per game. Defensively, they have been porous, keeping only one clean sheet in the last five matches.

The current pattern of conceding late goals, especially within the 76-90 minute interval, has added to their woes. Metz will need a significant defensive improvement and clinical finishing if they are to turn their fortunes around in this upcoming fixture against Toulouse.

Metz Key Players

Metz will be counting on a few key players to step up in their clash against Toulouse:

• Habibou Mouhamadou Diallo: Metz’s top scorer with 1 goal this season. His contributions up front will be essential.
• Jessy Deminguet and Boubacar Traore: These two midfielders must control the game and support both defense and attack.
• Jean-Philippe Gbamin: The central defender will need to be at his best to thwart Toulouse’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Metz:

• Goalkeeper: Jonathan Fischer
• Defenders: Terry Yegbe, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Sadibou Sane
• Midfielders: Koffi Frank Kouao, Boubacar Traore, Jessy Deminguet, Fode Ballo-Toure
• Forwards: Gauthier Hein, Habibou Mouhamadou Diallo, Cheikh Sabaly

Look out for the intriguing battle between Diallo and Toulouse’s defense, as well as the midfield tussle involving Deminguet and Sauer.

Metz Suspensions & Injuries

Metz face a few injury concerns heading into their game against Toulouse:

• Benjamin Stambouli: Out with a knee injury and expected to return in late October 2025.
• Urie-Michel Mboula: Suffering from a hamstring injury, also anticipated to make a comeback in late October 2025.

These absences will affect Metz’s defensive stability and midfield depth. Stambouli’s experience is a major loss at the heart of the defense, while Mboula’s pace and creativity will be missed in attack. Manager Stéphane Le Mignan will need to reorganize his lineup and rely on his squad’s depth to cover these significant gaps, potentially placing more pressure on the likes of Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Jessy Deminguet to deliver solid performances.

Metz Tactics and Formation

Metz Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Habibou Mouhamadou Diallo
• Midfield Duo: Jessy Deminguet and Boubacar Traore
• Defensive Setup: Jean-Philippe Gbamin anchoring the backline

Metz typically line up in a flexible 3-4-2-1 formation, designed to offer both defensive solidity and attacking support. Up front, Habibou Mouhamadou Diallo leads the charge and is expected to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Toulouse.

In midfield, Jessy Deminguet and Boubacar Traore are key playmakers, linking defense to attack. They will need to be highly effective to counter Toulouse’s robust midfield presence.

Defensively, Jean-Philippe Gbamin will be pivotal as he aims to organize and solidify Metz’s backline. Metz’s plan also includes creating overloads on the wings through their wing-backs, hoping to deliver quality crosses for Diallo. This balanced strategy will be key if Metz are to overcome Toulouse’s attacking threats.

Toulouse vs Metz Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the last five meetings between Toulouse and Metz, Toulouse have clearly had the upper hand:

• Metz 0-1 Toulouse (14 January 2024, Ligue 1)
• Toulouse 3-0 Metz (1 October 2023, Ligue 1)
• Metz 2-2 Toulouse (28 September 2019, Ligue 1)
• Metz 1-1 Toulouse (3 March 2018, Ligue 1)
• Toulouse 0-0 Metz (18 November 2017, Ligue 1)

Toulouse have won two out of the last five encounters, with three ending in draws. Importantly, they have managed to keep Metz at bay by not conceding in the last two meetings. This historical performance indicates a strong track record for Toulouse, suggesting that they have the upper hand going into this match. Metz will have to break this pattern if they hope to secure a positive result.

Odds accurate as of 17/10/2025 16:18, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.