Monza vs Napoli Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Napoli continue their pursuit of Inter Milan with a crucial visit to Monza, who sit at the bottom of the table and face near-certain relegation. A defeat for the Brianzoli would all but confirm their drop to Serie B. For the Partenopei there is a significant opportunity as they play 24 hours before Inter, aiming to draw level on points with the Nerazzurri, who face a challenging fixture at Bologna. 

Despite Conte’s side not having secured an away victory since a 3-2 success over Atalanta on January 18, this match represents a last-ditch attempt for Alessandro Nesta’s team and promises to be more fiercely contested than the bookmakers suggest. Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has analysed the statistics to offer betting insights for Monza vs Napoli.

Monza vs Napoli Prediction: A golden opportunity to put pressure on leaders

Serie A, Matchday 33, Saturday 19 April, 17:00 (UK)

The title race between Inter and Napoli, separated by just three points with Inzaghi’s side currently leading, will be decided in the final six matchdays. While on paper Conte’s team seems to have the easier fixtures—judging by the total points of their upcoming opponents—statistics can be deceptive. 

Inter must face three teams currently in the top half of the table, while Napoli face none. However, with teams battling for European spots and others fighting for survival, the dynamics are more unpredictable than raw numbers suggest.

Over the next two months, this could be a crucial weekend for Napoli. They play on Saturday against bottom-placed Monza, a side without a win in months, and whom they defeated 2-0 in the reverse fixture. But beware of the precedent set against Venezia, where the Partenopei were held to a scoreless draw. But Napoli are winless in their last five away games (4 draws, 1 loss), managing just a single goal against Empoli when visiting other teams currently in the relegation zone, such as the Brianzoli. 

The hosts, meanwhile, have the poorest home record with just eight points and have failed to score in six home matches. Yet, Alessandro Nesta’s squad has shown resilience against top sides, never losing by more than one goal at home to any of the top nine teams. The season has been turbulent for Monza, with Nesta being replaced by Salvatore Bocchetti, only to see Nesta reinstated a few weeks after. The squad was weakened over the summer with the departures of Colpani and Di Gregorio, followed by Daniel Maldini in January. Despite this, Monza possibly deserved more; their expected points suggest they should have an additional 11.35 points, putting them just six points from safety.

Last chance saloon might spark a reaction

Conversely, Napoli may have benefited from luck, collecting over nine points above their expected tally. Their recent 3-0 win against Empoli perhaps flattered them. Apart from Monday’s success, the visitors have struggled to maintain consistency over 90 minutes in recent months. Injury woes have narrowed Conte’s selection options in recent fixtures, yet the fitness levels—crucial to the manager’s philosophy—have been lacking despite the theoretical advantage of more training time, with rivals occupied by European commitments.

In a match where few goals are expected—only 2.28 according to BETSiE, the third-lowest figure for this Serie A round—a narrow win for the visitors (1-0 or 2-1) appears to be the most prudent bet.

BETSiE Projections		HGF	AGF	GT	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Monza vs Napoli		0.54	1.75	2.28	10.9%	21.0%	68.1%

• Monza vs Napoli Prediction: Monza Asian Handicap +1.75
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Monza vs Napoli Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:45, April 15th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Monza vs Napoli Team News: Conte with little options at the back

The Brianzoli camp is closely monitoring the fitness of Keita Baldé and Armando Izzo, who both sustained injuries during the clash with Venezia. Of particular concern is Baldé, who is dealing with a strain to the rectus femoris, while Izzo is troubled by an adductor issue. In their stead, Palacios might feature in defence while Caprari could feature in attack. 

Conte welcomes back Di Lorenzo and Anguissa, both returning from suspensions. However, centre-backs Buongiorno and Juan Jesus are unavailable. Rafa Marin, who has only featured for 23 minutes in Serie A this season, will step into the back four, with Gilmour and Spinazzola starting on the bench. 

Monza possible starting lineup:
Turati; Pedro Pereira, Palacios, A. Carboni; Birindelli, Akpa Akpro, Bianco, Urbanski, Ciurria; Mota Carvalho, Caprari. 

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa Marin, Olivera; Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Neres.

Match Stats: Brianzoli can raise their game against top sides

• Napoli are winless in their last five away games (4D, 1L), and have only scored once, against Empoli, on the road against the other two sides currently in the relegation zone. 
• Monza have the worst points tally at home this season (8) and have failed to score in six home games. 
• In home matches against the other sides occupying the first nine positions in the table, Alessandro Nesta’s men have never lost by more than by a goal margin. 
• With 18.17 xG (expected goals), the Partenopei have only the seventh best attack on the road.
• This is Romelu Lukaku’s best season in terms of expected goals (11.76) and expected assists (3.77) since 2020/21 (23.43 xG and 8.39 xA) when the Belgian striker won the league with Inter Milan. 

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