New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 28 September 2025

The New York Derby promises an exciting clash as the New York Red Bulls host New York City FC in this Major League Soccer fixture. Taking place at the Sports Illustrated Stadium on 28 September 2025, this match pits the 16th placed Red Bulls against the 8th placed City FC in round 32 of the competition. With City FC having a strong recent run of form and sitting on 53 points, they are favourites to extend their lead over their city rivals, who are on 43 points.

The Red Bulls have shown a sturdy defence recently with three clean sheets in their last five games, but their scoring has been sparse, averaging just 0.80 goals per game. NYCFC, on the other hand, have been prolific with 1.80 goals on average in their last five outings.

Our recommended bet is for both teams to score, as derbies often bring out the best from both sides and previous encounters have shown competitiveness from both fronts. Look out for top scorers Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Alonso Martinez who will be key figures in this electric encounter.

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting tip synopsis:

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Both Teams to Score (Yes)	52%

Reasoning:

• Statistical data indicates that both teams are likely to score. New York Red Bulls have seen both teams score in 52% of their matches, while New York City FC have a similar rate at 48%.
• Both teams have comparable scoring and conceding averages. The Red Bulls have averaged 0.80 goals scored and have conceded 1.3 goals per game in their last five matches, whereas NYCFC averages 1.80 goals scored and conceded 1.2 goals per game.
• Derbies are often fiercely competitive, which enhances the likelihood of both sides finding the net. Previous encounters show a mix of high and low-scoring matches, indicating the potential for goals from both sides.

Given the statistical support and the charged atmosphere of a derby, betting on both teams to score is a solid choice.

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Odds

The odds are pretty tight for this New York Derby, reflecting the competitive nature of this fixture. With the Red Bulls installed as slight favourites by bookmakers, there’s not much to separate the two sides.

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
New York Red Bulls	2.23
Draw	3.51
New York City FC	2.92

This close range of odds suggests a balanced matchup, further heightening the excitement of this important clash. The Red Bulls’ recent solid defensive performances (three clean sheets in five games) and NYCFC’s higher goal-scoring average (1.80 goals per game in their last five) add layers of intrigue.

An informed bet would be to consider both teams finding the net, given the context of the derby and the stats at hand. Make sure to read those odds carefully, as they can offer significant payouts!

New York Red Bulls Team Analysis

New York Red Bulls Recent Performance

The New York Red Bulls have had a mixed bag of results in their last five matches, reflecting a form of WLDLW.

Their impressive defensive record, with three clean sheets in the last five games, is a clear positive. That said, scoring has been an issue, with the team averaging just 0.80 goals per game in these outings. Defensive resilience has been key, as shown in their hard-fought 0-0 draw against Columbus Crew and the narrow 1-0 win over Philadelphia Union.

Sandwiched between these solid defensive displays was a goal-filled 2-1 victory over CF Montreal, showcasing they can find the net when it counts. However, defeats to Portland Timbers and Charlotte FC have highlighted areas for improvement.

In summary, while the Red Bulls are strong at the back, increasing their goal-scoring output will be crucial for climbing higher in the standings.

New York Red Bulls Key Players

For the Red Bulls, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting stands out as the pivotal figure. With a tally of 16 goals this season, Choupo-Moting will lead the attack and be the prime focus in the final third. His knack for finding the net makes him a constant threat to opposition defences.

In the midfield, Emil Forsberg is the creative force. His ability to unlock defences with precise passes and set-pieces could be crucial in breaking down NYCFC’s backline.

Defensively, Tim Parker has been a rock, contributing to the team’s three clean sheets in their last five matches. His leadership and experience will be vital in containing NYCFC’s striker Alonso Martinez, who leads the opposition with 17 goals.

Expected lineup for the New York Red Bulls:

• Goalkeeper: Carlos Coronel
• Defenders: Kyle Duncan, Noah Eile, Tim Parker, Marcelo Morales
• Midfielders: Wikelman Carmona, Ronald Donkor, Gustav Berggren, Emil Forsberg
• Forwards: Julian Hall, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

New York Red Bulls Suspensions & Injuries

The New York Red Bulls have a few critical injuries heading into this fixture, which could impact their performance. Cameron Harper and Lewis Morgan are both nursing injuries and are expected to return in early October 2025. Additionally, goalkeeper AJ Marcucci is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury and won’t be back until late April 2026.

These absences mean the Red Bulls will need others to step up, especially in the midfield where Harper and Morgan play pivotal roles. Their absence will put extra pressure on players like Emil Forsberg and Ronald Donkor to fill the void and maintain midfield stability.

Despite these setbacks, the team’s strong defensive form and Choupo-Moting’s goal-scoring prowess could still make them formidable opponents.

New York Red Bulls Tactics and Formation

Expect the New York Red Bulls to stick with a 4-4-2 formation, a setup that has brought them mixed results but has notably solidified their defence. In their last five games, the Red Bulls have deployed this formation three times, and it has contributed to three clean sheets.

Key players in this formation include Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting as the leading forward, backed by the midfield creativity of Emil Forsberg. Forsberg’s role will be crucial in transitioning play and creating scoring opportunities.

New York Red Bulls Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-4-2
• Key Forward: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
• Midfield Quartet: Wikelman Carmona, Ronald Donkor, Gustav Berggren, Emil Forsberg
• Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Utilize Forsberg’s playmaking ability to unlock defences and create space for Choupo-Moting.

New York City FC Team Analysis

New York City FC Recent Performance

New York City FC have demonstrated a strong run of form recently, winning three out of their last five matches, resulting in a form of LWWWL. They have shown an ability to score goals consistently, averaging 1.80 goals per game in this period.

Their defensive record is less impressive, with only one clean sheet out of the last five encounters. Notably, they suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat to Inter Miami CF, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.

However, NYCFC bounced back remarkably with wins against Columbus Crew and Charlotte FC, flexing their attacking muscles and scoring a combined eight goals in these three victories. The team’s form has been pivotal in them accumulating 53 points and securing the 8th position in the league.

With Alonso Martinez contributing significantly with his 17 goals this season, NYCFC will aim to harness this attacking prowess against the Red Bulls, while tightening their defensive efforts.

New York City FC Key Players

For New York City FC, Alonso Martinez is undoubtedly the standout performer this season with 17 goals to his name. His sharp eye for goal and ability to create space makes him a constant threat to any defence.

In midfield, Maxi Moralez is the key orchestrator, linking play effectively and contributing significantly to the team’s attacking fluidity. His vision and passing accuracy could be crucial in breaking down the Red Bulls’ organised defence.

Defensively, Thiago Martins is the key figure at the back. His leadership and defensive awareness will be vital in containing the Red Bulls’ main attacking threats, particularly Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.

Expected lineup for New York City FC:

• Goalkeeper: Matt Freese
• Defenders: Tayvon Gray, Thiago Martins, Raul Gustavo, Kevin O’Toole
• Midfielders: Andrés Perea, Justin Haak
• Forwards: Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf
• Center forward: Alonso Martinez

These players will play pivotal roles in shaping the outcome of the match against their city rivals.

New York City FC Suspensions & Injuries

New York City FC are dealing with a few injury concerns that could influence their performance. Key players like Malachi Jones, Keaton Parks, and Nico Cavallo are all nursing leg injuries and are set to return in early October 2025.

The absence of these players, particularly Jones and Parks, who are vital in the midfield, will put extra pressure on the remaining squad members to step up. Andrés Perea and Justin Haak will need to fill the void in the midfield, ensuring that the team’s fluidity and defensive cover are maintained.

Without these key figures, NYCFC’s task becomes more challenging, and their ability to sustain their recent form might be tested. Nonetheless, their attacking strength led by Alonso Martinez will look to make up for these setbacks.

New York City FC Tactics and Formation

New York City FC are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under the guidance of coach Pascal Jansen, who has favoured this setup in their recent outings. This formation allows NYCFC to maximize their attacking prowess while maintaining a solid defensive structure.

New York City FC Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Alonso Martinez
• Midfield Trio: Andrés Perea, Justin Haak (holding midfielders); Maxi Moralez (attacking midfielder)
• Defensive Backbone: Thiago Martins and Raul Gustavo at centre-back
• Primary Strategy: Utilize their offensive strength, particularly focusing on scoring between the 46-60-minute interval, where they’ve been most productive.

Under this formation, Alonso Martinez will spearhead the attack, supported by pacey wingers Nicolas Fernandez Mercau and Hannes Wolf. The creativity of Maxi Moralez in the attacking midfield role will be crucial to break through the Red Bulls’ defensive lines.

New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Head-to-Head Statistics

In their last five meetings, New York City FC have had the edge over the Red Bulls, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss.

• 2025-05-17 Major League Soccer: New York City FC 2 – 0 New York Red Bulls
• 2024-11-23 Major League Soccer Playoff: New York City FC 0 – 2 New York Red Bulls
• 2024-09-28 Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls 1 – 5 New York City FC
• 2024-05-18 Major League Soccer: New York City FC 2 – 1 New York Red Bulls
• 2023-09-16 Major League Soccer: New York City FC 0 – 0 New York Red Bulls

Recent encounters have showcased NYCFC’s ability to dominate these matchups, with their most memorable victory being the 5-1 thrashing in 2024. The Red Bulls managed a notable win in the 2024 playoffs, showing they can rise in crucial moments.

On the whole, both teams have produced a mix of high and low-scoring games, with less than 2.5 goals being scored in 82% of their last 11 matchups, displaying the intensity and tight contests typical of the New York Derby.

Odds accurate as of 26.09.2025 00:33, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.