Tijuana vs. Toluca Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 23 October 2025

As we approach the 14th round of the Liga MX, all eyes will be on the match at Estadio Caliente between Tijuana and current league leaders Toluca. Scheduled for the early hours, this match holds significant importance for both sides, albeit for different reasons.

Toluca are in scintillating form, sitting comfortably at the top with 31 points. Their firepower is evident, boasting an average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 outings. Under the tactical prowess of Antonio Mohamed, they’ve been near-unstoppable.

Tijuana, on the other hand, occupies 7th place with 20 points. While their recent form has been mixed, they remain capable of producing electrifying moments, particularly at home under the guidance of Sebastián Abreu.

Given the offensive style of both teams, a high-scoring match seems likely. Our recommended bet is over 3 goals at odds of 1.85@188Bet.

Expect an engaging encounter as both teams vie for critical league points.

Tijuana vs Toluca Prediction & Betting tip

Tijuana vs Toluca Prediction
Betting tip
Over 3 goals

As we gear up for the clash between Tijuana and Toluca, the goal-scoring prowess of both teams cannot be overlooked. Our recommended bet is for over 3 goals at odds 1.85@188Bet, reflecting the high-scoring tendencies of these sides.

• Both Tijuana and Toluca have participated in matches with over 2.5 goals in the majority of their games this season.
• Tijuana’s home matches often feature numerous goals, while Toluca’s attack averages 4 goals per game in their last 5 outings.
• The head-to-head encounters between these teams have historically seen plenty of goals, enhancing the likelihood of another goal-rich game.

Tijuana vs Toluca Odds

The upcoming clash between Tijuana and Toluca brings intriguing odds, highlighting the strength and form of the away team, Toluca. As the bookmaker’s favourite, Toluca’s recent performance gives them an edge in this encounter.

Tijuana vs Toluca Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Tijuana	3.33
Draw	3.75
Toluca	1.92

The odds favour a Toluca victory, reflecting their dominant form and position at the top of the league standings. However, Tijuana’s ability to push forward at home could make the match more competitive than it seems on paper.

Given the attacking prowess of both teams, betting on goals could be a safer route, as both have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The odds for Toluca to win can serve as a tempting opportunity for those believing in their current form and scoring ability.

Tijuana Team Analysis

Tijuana Recent Performance

Tijuana has had a mixed bag of results recently, reflected in their form of WLWDL. Their last five fixtures include:

• Lost to Puebla 4-3
• Drew with Monterrey 2-2
• Won against Cruz Azul 2-0
• Lost to Santos Laguna 1-0
• Won against Leon 5-0

Tijuana’s ability to score is notable, averaging 2.40 goals per game over their last 5 matches. Defensively, they’ve managed 2 clean sheets but have conceded in high-scoring encounters, indicating an unstable back line.

Standing 7th with 20 points, their attacking style under Sebastián Abreu sees moments of brilliance mixed with inconsistency. With their next fixture against Tigres, maintaining this offensive momentum while tightening their defense will be crucial.

Tijuana Key Players

As Tijuana gears up for the match against Toluca, key players will be pivotal in their quest for victory. Frank Boya stands out as their top scorer with 6 goals this season. His role in midfield, driving attacks and breaking opposition play, will be crucial against a formidable Toluca side.

In defense, Jackson Porozo and Jesús Gómez must tighten up to keep Toluca’s high-flying attack at bay. José Antonio Rodriguez in goal will need to be at his best to handle the onslaught from Toluca’s forwards.

Expected lineup for Tijuana:

• Goalkeeper: José Antonio Rodriguez
• Defenders: Rafael Fernandez, Jesús Alejandro Gómez, Jackson Porozo, Jesus Alan Vega
• Midfielders: Frank Boya, Ivan Tona, Ramiro Arciga, Kevin Castaneda, Gilberto Mora
• Forward: Mourad El Ghezouani

With their next fixture against Tigres, this game is a chance for Tijuana to solidify their position in the league.

Tijuana Suspensions & Injuries

Tijuana heads into the clash against Toluca with no reported suspensions or injuries among the squad. This clean bill of health puts them in an advantageous position, allowing coach Sebastián Abreu to field his strongest lineup.

The absence of key injuries or suspensions means Tijuana can deploy their preferred tactics and formations without any significant restrictions. Players like Frank Boya can focus on their attacking responsibilities, knowing the team’s core remains intact.

With a fully fit squad, Tijuana will look to maximize their home advantage to secure crucial points against the league leaders. This match could serve as a turning point in their season, so maintaining squad fitness will be key.

Tijuana Tactics and Formation

Tijuana Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-4-2
• Key Forward: Mourad El Ghezouani
• Midfield Duo: Frank Boya and Ivan Tona
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on aggressive attacking, particularly at home.

Under Sebastián Abreu, Tijuana employ a 4-4-2 formation aimed at leveraging their attacking potential. With Frank Boya orchestrating plays from midfield and Mourad El Ghezouani leading the attack, Tijuana has managed an average of 2.40 goals per game in their last five outings.

Defensively, Porozo and Gómez form the backbone, although the team has shown vulnerability, conceding in three out of five recent matches. Tijuana typically pushes bodies forward, especially in home games, aiming to overwhelm opponents with relentless pressure and quick transitions.

This approach has yielded both high-scoring victories and close defeats, making their matches thrilling but unpredictable. With a crucial game against Toluca, Tijuana’s tactics will be put to the test against the league’s top scorers.

Toluca Team Analysis

Toluca Recent Performance

Toluca enters this match in exceptional form, holding an impeccable recent performance record of WWWWW. Their last five fixtures include:

• Defeated Querétaro FC 4-0
• Overcame León 4-2
• Edged out LA Galaxy 3-2 in the Campeones Cup
• Triumphed against Mazatlán FC 3-1
• Thrashed Monterrey 6-2

Toluca’s consistent scoring ability is underscored by an impressive average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 matches. While defensively, they have kept one clean sheet, their high-scoring games reflect an attacking approach under coach Antonio Mohamed.

As they stand at the top of the league with 31 points, Toluca’s next challenge will be against Pachuca. Maintaining this momentum will be crucial as they aim to consolidate their position at the league’s summit.

Toluca Key Players

Toluca’s impressive form is driven by key players who have been pivotal in their success. Paulinho tops the scoring charts for Toluca with 10 goals, showcasing his lethal finishing skills. His presence in the attacking third is a constant threat to any defense.

In midfield, players like Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero provide creativity and stability, ensuring that Toluca maintains control of the game. Their ability to transition quickly from defense to attack has been a hallmark of Toluca’s strategy.

Against Tijuana, the defensive solidity of Bruno Méndez and the experience of Hugo Gonzalez in goal will be crucial to repelling Tijuana’s attacking forays.

Expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Hugo Gonzalez
• Defenders: Santiago Simon, Bruno Méndez, Federico Pereira, Jesus Gallardo
• Midfielders: Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Alexis Vega
• Forward: Paulinho

With these key players in top form, Toluca will be aiming to extend their winning streak and solidify their position at the top of the league.

Toluca Suspensions & Injuries

Toluca enters the match against Tijuana with only one injury to report — Luan, who is sidelined with a groin injury and is expected to return by early January 2026. This means that while Toluca will miss his contributions on the pitch, the squad’s depth and other key players should be able to compensate for his absence.

The lack of suspensions puts coach Antonio Mohamed in a strong position to field his best XI, focusing on extending their impressive run of form. With the current momentum and overall squad health, Toluca is well-prepared to tackle the challenge posed by Tijuana, aiming to secure another three points to maintain their lead at the top of the league.

Toluca Tactics and Formation

Toluca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Paulinho
• Midfield Duo: Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero
• Defensive Strength: Defense anchored by Bruno Méndez and Santiago Simon
• Notable Strategy: Scoring most goals in the 16-30-minute interval

Under the direction of Antonio Mohamed, Toluca employs a 4-2-3-1 formation designed to maximize their attacking efficiency. Paulinho, their top scorer with 10 goals, leads the charge up front. The midfield balance is maintained by Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero, who not only support attacks but also shield the defense.

Defensively, Hugo Gonzalez in goal is supported by a solid backline featuring Santiago Simon and Bruno Méndez, who have been crucial in keeping the team structured. Toluca’s notable strategy involves high-intensity play during the first half-hour, where they’ve scored most of their goals this season.

Their well-rounded approach on both ends of the pitch has been pivotal in maintaining their position at the league’s summit.

Tijuana vs Toluca Head-to-Head Statistics

In their last five meetings, Toluca has clearly had the upper hand against Tijuana, securing four wins out of five encounters:

• Tijuana 2 – 4 Toluca (2025-01-11, Liga MX Clausura)
• Toluca 4 – 0 Tijuana (2024-09-14, Liga MX Apertura)
• Toluca 2 – 0 Tijuana (2024-02-25, Liga MX Clausura)
• Tijuana 2 – 1 Toluca (2023-09-16, Liga MX Apertura)
• Tijuana 3 – 3 Toluca (2023-03-18, Liga MX Clausura)

Their encounters have been rich in goals, with Toluca notably dominating the scoring charts. In their most recent matchup, Toluca triumphed 4-2, showcasing their potent attack.

Tijuana’s only victory came in September 2023, highlighting their struggle to consistently match up against Toluca’s firepower. This history suggests another high-scoring game could be on the horizon.

Odds accurate as of 21.10.2025 04:00, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.