UFC 249: Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephens prediction, picks, betting tips

UFC 249: Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephens prediction, picks, betting tips

Jeremy “Lil Heathens” Stephens and “The Boston Finisher” Calvin Kattar lock horns on the main card of UFC 249. Who wins and where’s the betting value? Let’s have a look.

The lowdown

Jeremy Stephens (28-17-1) is a true UFC veteran. He has had 32 fights for the organization and has a record of 15-16-1 in those fights. Stephens is a knockout puncher by heart and always tries to go for the kill in his fights. He is primarily a striker but we have seen him use his wrestling when he is pressured against dangerous strikers. Most recently we saw it against Yair Rodriguez, where Stephens secured 3 out of 4 (75%) of his takedown attempts. Rodriguez has received criticism for his inability to stop takedowns, but still impressive considering the size disadvantage Jeremy had.

When Stephens fights Calvin Kattar, a tall dangerous power striker with good distance control, he could find himself in danger. If he decides to shoot for a takedown, he needs to be able to get the fight to the ground if he wants to better his chances of winning. However, granted Kattar’s size and takedown defense, we don’t expect Stephens to be able to get this fight to the ground. Kattar has only been taken down twice in his career and has a great defensive takedown percentage of 77.

If Stephens could incorporate the takedown threat into his gameplan, however, he could give Kattar problems on the feet by keeping him guessing. Kattar is great at stopping takedowns and doesn’t fight cautiously with a fear of getting taken down, which we saw in his fight with Zabit. We also don’t see Jeremy Stephens as a guy who frequently incorporates sharp gameplan tactics into his fight camp –  you pretty much know what you’re getting with him and that is a guy who is pressing the action, mostly on the feet. Kattar is newer in the organization, and he is still evolving his skill set. His striking is something to behold as he has some of the best boxing in the 145-lbs division.

Prediction time

In the striking, we think either guy could have an advantage. Stephens is better at landing different types of strikes: leg kicks, body kicks and strikes to the head. Kattar, on the other hand, primarily focuses on taking his opponent’s head off with one-twos. Kattar had a tough fight with Renato Moicano where his inability to defend leg kicks got exposed a little bit, so if Stephens is smart, he will make the necessary adjustments to exploit this weakness.

Whether or not Calvin knows of his inability to defend leg kicks, we will have to wait and see but it will be a big factor in this fight because Kattar moves a lot around when he fights.

Despite Kattar’s problem with leg kicks, we are giving him the benefit of the doubt here. Stephens is on a three-fight losing streak and Kattar’s boxing is as good as it gets in the featherweight division. This fight will be Calvin’s ticket to climb the ranks of the featherweight division.

And most importantly, Jeremy Stephens is not a guy who has that strategic approach and comes out with a sharp gameplan. Kattar is going to run him over in a boxing fight. Kattar has great body shots and straight rights and Stephens has shown weakness to body shots before.

Prediction: Calvin Kattar

Betting tips

Is Kattar the valued pick? 

We believe Calvin Kattar is only getting started in his UFC run. He is evolving quickly and his hands are only getting better. Since this is going to be a standup bout, we think Kattar is going to win this fight easily. Jeremy Stephens is a great fighter but he is always looking for that one-punch knockout which allows his more skilled opponents to pick him apart. Kattar wins this fight 8/10 times if the fight stays standing, which is why we’re going with him as our betting tip.

H2H betting tip: Calvin Kattar.

Prop bets with value

Jeremy Stephens isn’t an easy guy to finish and very few guys have actually managed to do so. Kattar does have KO power, but we will probably see him dancing around those power punches from Stephens and getting a few good licks in between shots. Using those jabs and his reach and height, Calvin could keep Stephens at bay and beat him on the judges’ scorecards. Sprinkle some more value on Kattar and pick him to get it done via decision.

Prop bet betting tip: Calvin Kattar wins via decision.

How has the line moved?

Money has been coming in on Jeremy Stephens who went from a 3.25 underdog to 3.00, more or less. Stephens might be the more well-known fighter who is popular with fans, and that might be why the line has moved as it has. If there’s a time to bet on Kattar, it might be now.