Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns Prediction & Betting Tips | UFC Fight Night 170

Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns Prediction & Betting Tips | UFC Fight Night 170

We take a look at another fight on the great UFC Fight Night 170 card. This fight takes place in the welterweight division, where Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns will lock horns in the co-main event. Who wins, and why?

 

Demian Maia

Jiu-jitsu specialist Demian Maia (28-9) is currently on a three-fight win streak in the UFC, beating Lyman Good, Anthony Rocco Martin and most recently, Ben Askren. The Brazilian is a true UFC veteran with a record of 22-8 inside the organization – pretty darn impressive! He is 42-years of age, and turns 43 in November.

Maia has 3 KO/TKO wins, 11 submission wins and 11 decision wins. Looking at losses, he has 1 KO/TKO loss, 0 submission losses and 8 decisions. Last time he was finished was by Nate Marquardt, in 2009.

Maia’s strategy is always to get a solid hold of his opponent, so he can get a submission win. He rarely wishes to stand and strike with his opponents.

Maia has beaten the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Ben Askren, Gunnar Nelson, Chael Sonnen and Carlos Condit.

 

Gilbert Burns

33-year old Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (17-3) is currently on a four-fight win streak in the UFC, against Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Mike Davis, Alexey Kunchenko and Gunnar Nelson. He has an exciting, and explosive style topped off with great striking. He holds 5 KO/TKO wins, 8 submission wins and 4 decision wins. Meanwhile, he has 1 KO loss to Dan Hooker and 2 decision losses.

Burns has great grappling and striking and has only been taken down eight times in his 13-fight UFC career. He has never had his guard passed, however, making him a tough competitor for Demian Maia.

 

Who wins?

First up, let’s think about the age difference. Maia is older by 9 years which is always a significant factor in MMA fights. In fights where there’s a 9-year age difference, the youngster wins 63% of the time. Sideline this with Gilbert’s odds of 1.50 and there isn’t much value. However, if we compare Maia’s and Gilbert’s striking, we get the idea that Maia will want to take this fight to the ground. So far, the odds are in Gilbert’s favor. But, we’re forgetting another important factor which is size difference. Maia, a natural welterweight has competed in the same division all his career. Burns, on the other hand, is moving up from lightweight to fight Maia which could be an advantage for Maia. Demian is two inches taller (5 cm) and has a weight advantage on his opponent as well. The size advantage isn’t enough to make Maia’s odds at 2.70 valuable though. And therefore, we’re going with Gilbert Burns in this matchup.

bettingexpert prediction: Gilbert Burns def. Demian Maia via unanimous decision.

 

Betting tips

Let’s take a look at where the betting value is for this fight.

Burns is a younger, fresher and more dangerous opponent than Maia. He lands way more than his opponent and has a takedown defense of 50%. 50% might not sound like a lot against a grappler like Maia, but Burns has never had his guard passed which is what gives him the value in this fight. He is currently priced at around 1.50 with bookmakers which isn’t what we could hope for, but still pretty decent value. Maia is simply too old to hang with a young cat like Burns and will be outworked over the course of three rounds.

betting tip: Gilbert Burns to win via decision, odds 2.25

Looking at Demian Maia, he is coming off a three-fight win streak, but we have to focus on how their fighting abilities match up. Maia is a one-trick pony who needs a takedown to win a fight against a guy like Gilbert Burns, who fights with explosive striking. Burns might not have the best takedown defense, but Maia’s takedown accuracy of 25% is not anything to be amazed by either. Odds would have to be around 3.00 to have at least some betting value – making him worth a punt, but for now, where sticking with Burns.