UFC 251: Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo Preview

Does Jose Aldo still have it?

One of the questions that will be answered in this fight is ‘does Jose Aldo still have it?’ At 33-years old, he has already had a 16-year professional MMA career. Aldo’s career is nothing short of legendary and the Brazilian has shown many feats of a GOAT, going undefeated from 2006 to 2014 and capturing the UFC featherweight title being just two of them. However, a 14-second knockout loss to UFC superstar Conor McGregor in 2015 would put an end to Aldo’s reign as champion, and since then Jose has struggled to regain his footing in the UFC. Since losing to the notorious Irishman, Aldo is 3-4 in the UFC, losing twice to Max Holloway, once to Alexander Volkanovski, and most recently losing a split-decision to Marlon Moraes. After losing to Volkanovski, Aldo decided to move down to bantamweight to face Marlon Moraes. The fight ended up being very close, but two judges saw it for Moraes.

Despite losing 5 times since 2015, Aldo has produced a unanimous decision win over fellow UFC veteran Frankie Edgar along with two knockouts, one over ‘Lil Heathen’ Jeremy Stephens and the other against featherweight prospect Renato Carneiro. What’s most impressive, is that Aldo actually looked better than he has in many years against Marlon Moraes. Despite a big weight cut, which he handled very well, by the way, Aldo looked sharp and his boxing was technical and accurate.

Aldo has Marlon Moraes on the backfoot for the majority of their three-round fight and landed good shots while also slipping the power punches for Moraes. Judging from his last performance, Aldo certainly still has it. You also have to keep in mind that Aldo only has lost to featherweight champions. McGregor, Holloway, and Volkanovski are all some of the best fighters to ever compete in the featherweight division, and losing to either of them doesn’t mean you’re a bad fighter. I think Aldo still has some great fights left in the tank.

What I make of the odds for this fight

The general consensus clearly is that Petr Yan is going to win this fight. Odds for Yan are 1.40 whereas Aldo is the dog at odds 3.00. I’m not sure I’m completely sold on Yan and his ability to be champion, as many others seem to be, but I agree with him being the favorite in this fight, just not that big a favorite. You have to conclude that Yan wins this fight 8 out of 10 times to give him some significant value in the H2H market, and I don’t see that happening. Aldo was written off against Moraes by bettors too, as we saw him coming in at odds 2.60 in that fight. That fight ended up being extremely close, and most fans actually had Aldo winning that fight. Going into this fight, we have to keep that in mind. Yan has looked good in his 6 UFC fights, but he hasn’t really faced anyone at the top level. Here are the names of the fighters he’s faced in the UFC: Teruto Ishihara, Jin Soo Son, Douglas Silva de Andrade, John Dodson (rocked him), Jimmie Rivera, and Urijah Faber. It’s not like he has faced Rob Font, Song Yadong, or Cory Sandhagen. Actually, The only person that Yan has beaten who is still in the top 10 of the bantamweight division, is Jimmie Rivera ranked no. 9, and come on, you’re not going to find a more blatantly obvious stepping stone than Jimmie Rivera. I say there is some H2H value on Jose Aldo here. Yan is good, but he isn’t worth a punt at 1.40 against Aldo.

Once again I also see some value on the over/under market for this fight. For ‘does the fight go the distance?’ the ‘yes’ should give you odds of around 2.20, which I think is pretty good. Aldo is hard to finish and Yan won’t have a big size advantage over the Brazilian. I think Yan also has yet to face someone who is willing to stand and trade shots in the pocket with him, which may surprise him a little bit.

All in all, I can’t wait to see this fight and how it plays out! The bantamweight division is stacked as never before at the moment and with Jose Aldo and Sean O’Malley in the mix, who knows what will happen?