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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Tips & Fight Predictions

24 October, 2020
Khabib Nurmagomedov
21:00
Justin Gaethje

BEST KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV VS JUSTIN GAETHJE PREDICTION

Khabib Nurmagomedov to win (1X2)
Tipped at: 1.38 - 23 Aug 19:07
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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Tips & Fight Predictions

MMAdamMMA/UFC insider with years of betting knowledge.

As Justin Gaethje recently defeated Tony Ferguson to become the interim lightweigt contender, he is next in line to face Nurmagomedov. Does Gaethje have what it takes to dethrone the reigning dominant champion, or will Justin end up another sacrificial lamb for the Russian. Let’s have a look.

In this highly anticipated fight we get a chance to see a new challenger in Justin Gaethje, try to take away the Lightweight belt from Khabib Nurmagomedov, the undefeated and no. 2 ranked pound for pound fighter. Following Justin Gaethje’s impressive performance against Tony Ferguson in the UFC 249 main event, Gaethje earned the right to be the next fighter that gets to test themselves against Nurmagomedov – and with it, a chance to become the next UFC Lightweight Champion. This preview will help you get an overview of the fight, along with bettingexpert’s predictions and betting tips. Read more

Tips

EARLY BIRD TOP TIP

Khabib Nurmagomedov to win
Tipped at: 1.40 - 29 Jul 13:00
Mighty fine early value on 'The Eagle' here. The recency bias is clearly affecting Gaethje's odds. Justin is coming off an impressive win over Tony Ferguson, but that is a completely different matchup in every way. Khabib is entering his Jon Jones days of betting value now and 1.40 is the best price we're going to get for the Russian in a long time. Everyone keeps talking about the wrestling of Justin Gaethje being able to nulify Khabib's takedowns. The guy wrestled in division 1 in college, and sure, that's impressive. But Khabib is a lifelong grappler and a 2x world-champion in sambo. Gaethje really only has a puncher's chance here, and Khabib's head movement is extremely good. Nurmagomedov only absorbs little over one strike every minute, on average. My main point is that there is a recency bias affecting this betting line. Does Gaethje have a better chance of beating Khabib than GSP, Conor McGregor, or Dustin Poirier? The odds indicate so. I'm all in on Khabib at these odds. He is the type of guy who just always finds a way to win.
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV - JUSTIN GAETHJEWHO WILL WIN?
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV
JUSTIN GAETHJE
Jun 11, 2020 01:50

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Tips & Fight Predictions

MMAdamMMA/UFC insider with years of betting knowledge.

Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje, with his 31 years of age and 22-2 MMA record, can at this point be considered a veteran fighter within the sport. Throughout his career he has always been a Lightweight fighter, weighing in at about 70 kg. He is 180 cm tall and has a wingspan of 178 cm. Gaethje joined the UFC in 2017 after a lengthy career in the World Series of Fighting; in which he held the Lightweight title. While a rocky start in the UFC, suffering back to back losses after his initial win against Michael Johnson, he has come back in an impressive fashion; having his comeback capped off by winning the UFC Interim Lightweight Title after beating Tony Ferguson. 

Gaethje was a Division 1 NCAA wrestler for the University of Northern Colorado, but is more so known for his impressive aggressive stand-up fighting. With 7.74 significant strikes landed per minute and a 59% significant striking accuracy, Gaethjes striking can very easily endanger his opponent. So far in his UFC career, every single fight he has won has come via KO/TKO, and in his last four, every knockout has come from a punch.


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Khabib Nurmagomedov

Khabib Nurmagomedov, also known simply as ‘The Eagle’, has long been on top of the lightweight division. Currently sitting at 28-0 along with the UFC Lightweight title, he is considered the second best pound for pound fighter in the UFC, ranked only behind Jon Jones. Just as Justin Gaethje, Khabib has primarily fought in the Lightweight division, which is why he sits at around 70 kg body weight. He is 178 cm tall and has a wingspan of 178 cm. 

What makes Khabib Nurmagomedov special is ofcourse his grappling. With a black belt in Judo and a couple of world championships in Combat Sambo, he is someone that you do not want to mess with in the ground game. With a 47% Takedown Accuracy and 5.35 Takedowns landed per 15 minutes, combined with an 84% Takedown Defense, beating him on the ground is something that simply has not been done yet. His striking, while worse, is still fairly decent. Khabib has on average landed 4.11 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 49%. 


 
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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Fight Predictions

Without a doubt Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the favorite going into this fight. When you are undefeated and ranked 2nd in the pound for pound rankings, you can not expect anything else. But seeing as Khabib is so heavily favored it does provide for some interesting betting opportunities. Justin Gaethje has a long history of excellent striking, but people tend to forget that he also possesses expert wrestling skills. While he does not use his wrestling on the ground, it has provided him with an extremely good takedown defense, averaging 80% over his UFC career. While Khabib is excellent on the ground, perhaps even the best of all time in MMA, he does have to be able to get Gaethje to the ground. If Gaethje manages to stand-up throughout most of the fight, he has a great chance to do some serious damage to Khabib, potentially resulting in a knockout. 

 

Striking Stats
Khabib Justin
4.11 Strikes Landed/min. | 7.74 Strikes Landed/min.
49% Striking Accuracy | 59% Striking Accuracy
    1.65 Strikes Absorbed/min. | 8.37 Strikes Absorbed/min.
    67% Striking Defense | 54% Striking Defense
 

But, with Khabibs excellent ground and pound game, along with his 67% striking defence, it seems very unlikely that Gaethje can win solely through his striking. Gaethje has not gone to decision in the UFC yet, and while he did seem more composed in parts of the fight against Tony Ferguson, Khabibs cardio will take a toll on Gaethje. Justin Gaethje likes to go for the big knockout punches, something that simply is not going to work with Khabib.. 

 

Grappling Stats
Khabib Justin
5.35 Takedowns Avg./15 min. | 0.00 Takedowns Avg./15 min.
47% Takedown Accuracy | 0% Takedown Accuracy
 84% Takedown Defense | 80% Takedown Defense
0.7 Submission Avg./15 min | 0.0 Submission Avg./15 min
 

Justin Gaethje has a real opportunity in this bout, seeing as his strengths match up well against Khabib Nurmagomedov. But, with that being said, Khabib has far superior cardio, far superior grappling, and will tire Justin Gaethje out over the span of the 5 rounds. Gaethje has the ability with his wrestling background to withstand a submission attempt, and his striking ability will prevent him from getting knocked out by Khabib. Therefore look for the fight to go the distance, with Khabib winning the decision. 

Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov (1.36) via unanimous decision.


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Tips

NEW TOP TIP

Khabib Nurmagomedov to win (1X2)
Tipped at: 1.38 - 23 Oct 02:41
Cracking fight here. JG is a high quality opponent and this should make for an entertaining watch. But khabib is a legend for the reason, it might take a few rounds but we are extremely confident that khabib gets the job done and keeps the championship gold . Khabib straight win.

LONG SHOT TOP TIP

Justin Gaethje to win (1X2)
Tipped at: 3.70 - 09 Oct 09:40
Khabib er med god grund favoritten her. Han har i hele hans karriere kun tabt en runde og har vist sig som den dominerende part i alle hans kampe. Gaethje er en stærk defensiv wrestler med tunge hænder som har vokset utroligt i hans tid som UFC kæmper. Det tager ikke mere end 4 af Gaethje's leg kicks før Khabib begynder at vakle og han (Gaethje) er frygtløs i nærkampe. Begge kæmpere presser hårdt, men hvis Gaethje kan forsvare Khabibs takedown er han med stor sandsynlighed den bedste i den stående kamp. Khabib har selv sagt at han er påvirket af hans fars død og det kan måske spille ind i kampen. Gaethje kommer med en enorm mængde selvtillid efter hans meget dominerende sejr over Fergusson.

HIGHLIGHTED OVER/UNDER TOP TIP

Over 4.5 rounds
Tipped at: 2.20 - 07 Sep 07:58
It is quite clear to me that Khabib will emerge as the victor here. However, his wrestling style usually takes its time wearing down opponents which is why he has a tendency to win by late submission or decision. Out of all the available bets this seems to be the one that holds the greatest value, while also being a possible outcome. Gaethje has a history of 1st round TKO's but it took time for him to wear down Ferguson. I imagine that will also be the case for this matchup.
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