baseball | Thursday, September 1, 2022 11:35 AM (Revised at: Thursday, September 1, 2022 11:44 AM)

Arizona Diamondbacks Vs Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline Best Bet: Dbacks Stay Hot With Kelly Taking The Mound

Sam Cox

Arizona Diamondbacks Vs Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday, September 1st

The surging Arizona Diamondbacks begin September with a four-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers in Phoenix. Arizona has little to play for, but has chased down the San Francisco Giants in the National League Central and owns an impressive 21-16 record since the All-Star break. Following the curious call to trade Josh Hader, Milwaukee has slipped behind the St Louis Cardinals in the Central, and has a 19-17 record in the second half.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview

Fri, Sep 2. 02:40 (UK time)

Arizona lost 18-2 to Philadelphia on Wednesday, while Milwaukee has won four of its last five. It has helped the Brewers that they played the lowly duo of the Cubs and Pirates. The Diamondbacks have made meaningful progress over the last few weeks, and even promoted top prospect Corbin Carroll a few days ago.

Merrill Kelly takes the ball for the home team on Thursday night, matching up with Brandon Woodruff. Kelly has been spectacular this season, with an ERA a shade under three and an expected number of just 3.17. Woodruff has regained his All-Star level after a poor first couple of months.

The Diamondbacks are an intriguing challenge for Woodruff, who is a strikeout machine, placing in the 86th percentile in K rate and 84th percentile in whiffs. Arizona has the second-lowest strikeout rate since the All-Star break, and places fifth in walk rate over that period. Woodruff can lose his command at times, which has often corresponded with his weaker starts. The Dbacks will look to force him out of the game early on.

Despite their struggles, the Brewers offence has actually been decent across the last few weeks, registering a 110 wRC+ since All-Star. Kelly is generally a pitch-to-contact guy, and this Brewers line up hits the ball hard on a regular basis. The veteran right hander generally does a good job of limiting walks, but how will he be able to keep that up against the league’s premier base on balls team (since All-Star)?

Curiously, Arizona’s uptick in wins has been despite their bullpen being among the worst in the league. In this matchup, though, it is clear there is a certain lottery once we get into the late innings with both teams placing in the bottom 10 in relief ERA in the second half.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

The starting contest is pretty much even. Woodruff has pitched better of late, but Kelly’s knack for generating soft contact and control could limit the Brewers’ offence. Arizona’s line up isn’t explosive, yet they will make Woodruff work hard for his outs.

Ultimately, reputation alone is what makes the Diamondbacks underdogs here. The Brewers are only a .500 team on the road this season – we’re taking the hosts to win the series opener behind Kelly.