baseball | Wednesday, July 27, 2022 10:20 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, July 27, 2022 11:12 AM)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline Best Bet: Orioles Bullpen to Secure Another Win

Sam Cox

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, July 27th

The Baltimore Orioles are going for a series win over the Tampa Bay Rays at Camden Yards on Wednesday night. Baltimore has surged in July, forcing themselves into the American League Wildcard race. A 5-1 win on Monday was followed by a 5-3 triumph on Tuesday, taking the Orioles above .500 and putting them just three games behind the Rays.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview

Thu, Jul 28. 00:10 (UK time)

Pitching has been a long-term problem for Baltimore. Such problems have faded over the last couple of months, powering the Orioles to a 29-18 record since the start of June. One protagonist of this run is towering right-hander Tyler Wells. Wells has a 3.69 ERA, matched by an almost identical xERA. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, owning a low strikeout rate, but Wells has been effective at limiting hard contact and walks for the most part.

There have been some blips of late, with 11 earned runs given up over his last three starts, but Wells is still a pitcher bettors can be confident in. The 27-year-old is poised for a bounce back outing against a Rays offence with just 10 runs scored over the last four games.

Wells takes on Drew Rasmussen and his 3.13 ERA. Rasmussen’s underlying numbers are less impressive, however, with an xERA of over four, and below-average marks in hard-hit rate and strikeouts.
While the Orioles have an edge in the starting duel, the bullpens have a big part to play here. Rasmussen has only pitched into the seventh inning once this season and Wells has never gone beyond six frames. It’s possible both starters are out before the sixth.

This is when the relief corps gets tested. Baltimore’s improved rotation performance has been supplemented by a stellar bullpen, which leads in the Majors in fWAR since the start of June. Traditionally a strong bullpen team, the Rays have trended in the opposite direction, sitting in the bottom 10 by the same metric.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet

The Rays’ offence has been keeping them competitive over the last couple of months, but their lack of production over the last few days will have some alarm bells ringing.
Baltimore doesn’t need Wells to be dominant deep into the game here. Their bullpen has been so good that just keeping them in the game early on is sufficient. The Orioles can fancy their chances of getting at the Rays relievers if Rasmussen is forced out before the sixth.

Even with how the Orioles have played over the last two months, the Rays are narrowly favoured here. We love the value on backing the home team to secure yet another series win.