baseball | Wednesday, September 7, 2022 9:13 AM (Revised at: Thursday, September 8, 2022 10:29 AM)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Manoah Takes Jays to Victory

Sam Cox

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, September 7th

The 75-60 Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night. Baltimore won on Tuesday to give themselves a chance at a series split, and will be desperate for a win here to close the gap in the fiercely competitive American League East. The O’s actually have a 7-5 advantage in the season series, and boast a stellar 40-27 record at home, but the Jays are no mugs on the road and have gone 25-17 since All-Star.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Thu, Sep 8. 00:05 (UK time)

The road team are favoured for this one behind Alek Manoah. The 24-year-old owns a 2.48 ERA on the season, though his expected ERA is over a run higher. He has, however, pitched superbly of late, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out after allowing three earned over 13 innings in his previous two starts. It is worth noting, though, that the former first-round pick coughed up seven earned over 10.2 innings against the Orioles last month.

Baltimore hands the ball to another young arm in Dean Kremer. Kremer, who arrived in the Manny Machado trade, is having the best year of his Major League career, pitching to a 3.22 ERA. Like Manoah, he has had some batted-ball luck, with the 26-year-old owning a 4.26 xERA, which places down in the 32nd percentile. In fact, most underling metrics paint Kremer as a below average arm, aside from his elite command.

Liable to give up hard contact, placing in the 21st percentile in expected slugging, Kremer is in for a difficult afternoon. Toronto is second in hard-hit rate over the last month, and 10th in wRC+ with a 104 mark. Baltimore is only slightly behind at 101, but there is no such an obvious weakness for Manoah. The starting pitching matchup is clearly in Toronto’s favour – their offence could force Kremer out of this one early.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

The bullpen has been a big part of the Orioles’ story in 2022, elevating them from also-rans to playoff contender. Their relief corps is seventh in xFIP over the last month, but down in 17th in ERA. Toronto’s bullpen is sixth by both of those metrics.

There is no department Baltimore can claim a meaningful advantage coming into this game. Their success against Manoah last month is the only factor which could make a bettor doubt the Blue Jays here, even at a relatively short price of 1.69. That isn’t enough to put us off, though.

Watch for Kremer to struggle in the early-to-mid innings, while Manoah should be able to go deep and hand over to the back end of the Jays’ ‘pen.