baseball | Monday, August 8, 2022 10:17 AM (Revised at: Monday, August 8, 2022 11:27 AM)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Orioles Bullpen Holds On for the Win

Sam Cox

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, August 8th

The Baltimore Orioles begin a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Camden Yards on Monday night. With Baltimore playing their best baseball in years, even after dealing Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline, they are just four games back of the Jays in the loss column. The only other series between these teams in 2022 took place in mid-June, ending with two wins apiece.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Tue, Aug 9. 00:10 (UK time)

Toronto is favoured for Monday’s contest with former Mariner Yusei Kikuchi on the hill. The leftie matches up with Jordan Lyles of the Orioles in what promises to be a high-scoring game in Maryland.

Kikuchi, owner of a 4.87 ERA and an expected number over five, has brutal statistics across the board with a ton of hard contact accompanied by a 13% walk rate and very few chases. Lyles hasn’t exactly been dominant either, pitching to a 4.40 ERA and 5.00 xERA. The soft-tossing right-hander had a 3.58 ERA in July, however, and allowed just one run over 6.1 frames in his last start.

Neither of these pitchers are going to shut down the opposing line up. Toronto is sixth by wRC+ since the start of July; Baltimore is 11th. Neither team strikes out a huge amount, nor do they force a huge number of walks, but both pitchers have been bitten by command woes on occasion and it will be fascinating to see how quickly the O’s can force up Kikuchi’s pitch count.

This is where things get more in Baltimore’s favour. Toronto’s relief group is up in ninth in xFIP since July 1, yet this bullpen is clearly more fallible than the Orioles’. Baltimore leads the league by a country mile in that metric over the same period, while Toronto still has some slip ups even after the deadline acquisitions of Zach Pop and Anthony Bass. The Jays blew a save on Sunday and allowed four runs from the bullpen on Saturday.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

If it’s relatively even between Lyles and Kikuchi, there’s a clear advantage in the favour of Baltimore when it comes to the respective relief corps. Sure, Toronto has a slightly better line up, but that doesn’t outweigh the bullpen edge.

No team has a significant advantage coming into this one, and only reputation puts Kikuchi above Lyles. They have simply been very similar pitchers this season, with Lyles enjoying success of late.
Baltimore is 31-21 at Camden Yards. Toronto is under .500 on the road. We love the value on the Orioles to win the series opener on Monday night.